Un-Professional Sports Betting

[Don Perignom]

Plus SP takes real money, so they have reason to post numbers in a serious fashion. They're managing things the way I would, so I really can't complain about it.

Indeed.

I can't recall ever encountering a limit on the Westgate app, but my bets are usually under $500. Some of the less prominent Nevada apps have limited me as low as $100. Atlantis and Baldini's come to mind. Hopefully those are just their general limits rather than "my" targeted limits.

[Don Perignom]

I'm learning a new thing: MLB series betting.

Caesars has Angels +110 vs Cardinals.

Offshore has Cardinals +100 at multiple sites including BetOnline.

But I'm keeping my bets contained because I'm afraid of screwing up.

[Don Perignom]

But I'm keeping my bets contained because I'm afraid of screwing up.

I've done it before. I think I'm arbed, but in fact I bet the series on one side, and an individual game on the other .

[Don Perignom]

Today's middle:

NCAA baseball, FL Atlantic at FL Gulf Coast

OVER 13.5 -120
-and-
UNDER 15 -115

I require a 14.

[redietz]

Today's middle:

NCAA baseball, FL Atlantic at FL Gulf Coast

OVER 13.5 -120
-and-
UNDER 15 -115

I require a 14.

Don't be greedy. A 15 would be fine. I can honestly say I have never tried to middle a college baseball total, but this looks like a decent shot.

[Don Perignom]

Don't be greedy. A 15 would be fine.

I could contain my disappointment at a 15.

I'm guessing here at my assessment of being a good bet. It's unfortunate that most sportsbooks ignore college baseball, but last year I found some arbs available during the playoffs into the CWS. Hopefully again this time around.

[redietz]

Don't be greedy. A 15 would be fine.

I could contain my disappointment at a 15.

I'm guessing here at my assessment of being a good bet. It's unfortunate that most sportsbooks ignore college baseball, but last year I found some arbs available during the playoffs into the CWS. Hopefully again this time around.

My best guess is that it's an okay wager. Not great, obviously, stuck with the -120 on one side, but I think it's just good enough to be worth pulling the trigger.

I'm guilty of firing at some UFL lines and MLs that are, from a sheer value standpoint, questionable. But I have hit them, middles-wise, enough to make UFL profitable. One advantage has been the fact that there is no kicking PAT, so much of the value-sucking, distorted buying-off-three stuff doesn't come into play very often. I did hit a ML/spread middle that was a three, though, last week. It involved a +3 weighted at -118, not buying any half points, so it was okay. The MLs move drastically for some games; there are opportunities if you shop 'til you drop.

The good thing about the UFL PATs is that no sports book is going to re-adjust what you pay for buying off various non-three half points just for some 10-game minor league.

[Don Perignom]

My best guess is that it's an okay wager.

But I have hit them, middles-wise, enough to make UFL profitable.

Did I accidentally bet the UFL ?



Gulf Coast scored the 14 points I needed in one half-inning!

[redietz]

My best guess is that it's an okay wager.

But I have hit them, middles-wise, enough to make UFL profitable.

Did I accidentally bet the UFL ?



Gulf Coast scored the 14 points I needed in one half-inning!

What the hell was that!?!

Wow. Not sure how long that baby took; concession stands likely did well.

[Don Perignom]

concession stands likely did well.

Elapsed time 3 hours 25 minutes, according to news reports.

Here's the climax of the 14-run half-inning:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1790478525260300554

Remarkable camera work. I felt like I was there.

[Don Perignom]

I think I stepped in poo.

MLB Pirates/Brewers, these are my bets for 1st 5 innings:

OVER 4 -120
*and*
UNDER 4.5 -110

Unabated has similar scenarios indicated around 0.5% house edge or a little less, so I'm probably relying on luck here.

Still waiting for UFL lines to post. Next games Saturday 18th.

[redietz]

First note: Don (or anyone), if you have an account at Northbet, their Grand Salami for MLB today is 50 1/2 runs, but it is +110. Everywhere else I see is normal -- that is like -108 at Bookmaker for the same number. For those who like snipering questionable but obvious edges of a sort (note my sneaky reference to edge-sorting, a movie coming soon), this would fill the bill. I think the total is right on the button, but I put lunch money on it anyway at the +110. I weigh too much anyway; always good to miss a lunch.

I'm off for lunch but will comment on UFL when I return.

Also, I took longshot stabs at a couple of golfers in the PGA, just based on generous numbers and they are decent and Scheffler is having a black hole effect on odds the way Tiger Woods once did. "Anyone but Scheffler" may be okay for awhile.

[Don Perignom]

Thanks for the Salami tip. I don't have an account, and didn't see it until after deadline anyway.

Also, I took longshot stabs at a couple of golfers in the PGA, just based on generous numbers and they are decent and Scheffler is having a black hole effect on odds the way Tiger Woods once did. "Anyone but Scheffler" may be okay for awhile.

I got stuck in the mud. Initially, this was in the Westgate app:



A very wide arb was available with DraftKings -- I think something like -165 on the UNDER 271.5. Not accessible from my location, but I did have a smaller arb playable on the 36-hole cut. However I was bothered by the terminology. Some sites mention # of holes; others don't. So am I really betting on the same thing at both sites?

On the cut bet, Westgate then shifted the line twice -- finishing at +110/-130. So I ended up arbing the other way around:

36-hole cut UNDER 143.5 -130 (Westgate)
*and*
cut OVER 143.5 +150 (BetOnline)

Do I need to worry about terminology in this scenario? A cut should always happen at 36 holes imo, but weird things happen.

Incidentally, I had the worst possible outcome this morning on Tiger. For a promo, I did a small bet on OVER 72.5 first round. But I like Tiger and wish him the best. As it happened, he 3-putted 17 and 18 to finish at 72. So a crappy result as a fan, but I still lost the bet .

[redietz]

So I have Finau and Justin Thomas at 60-something to 1; Hovland and Cam Smith at 50-something to 1. Finau is always feast or famine. Technically, it's a "home game" for JT, but that won't be worth much. Lunch money on them.

Regarding the UFL. I have run into offshores making week-to-week changes in when and whether they allow buying of half points. NorthBet has stayed steady, but also posts lines later than others. Other places have vacillated on the half point buying allowances and dates available. Some won't allow buying of half points.

Also, there were more simultaneous differences early in the season. Now there's more conservatism, although you can still see numbers moving in slo-mo like an odometer. Northbet has capped betting at $250 at a time, which is real low for them. Suggests Northbet has gone a little paranoid -- maybe a management change? Anyway, that's it. You can still fire most places.

A little brag time. I tried to fire on Birmingham to win the thing early in the season. Tried to get $500, which seemed reasonable, down a couple of places, but the conservatism was ridiculous. Some places limited me to $200. Unbelievable. Anyway, it was the right thing -- Birmingham was +400 and +275 at the times I took them. Barely worth the effort for the money I got down, but all you can do is what's allowed. I don't even like Martinez as starter, but they know what they're doing. Probably have the best coach for this league. Here's a tidbit. I went to the Hard Rock in North Carolina and tried to bet UFL straight and futures. They were not available at all. I found that very odd. Just post odds and take stupidly low limits, like some offshores.

I am not qualified to give opinions on the terminology of the golf betting. I always say to pin them down yourself. A partner/friend of mine, who was a high-ranking amateur tennis player in his age bracket, ran into some issues betting tennis and sorting through the different definitions of "retiring" from a match (aka quitting). He had some arbitrage shots that went south because, as in boxing's "no decision" definitions, not everyone is using the same rules and regs and you can get caught flat-footed. I wouldn't deign to offer advice or claim to know the definitions.

[redietz]

Last note on the golf. Scheffler is a monster. LOL. We're four holes in, and he looks like a different species. I'm not sure Tiger Woods had a better dominant streak than this. On one hand, those +350 numbers to win a major are asinine (Tiger was +700 in majors at his most dominant, except lower for The Masters). On the other hand, Scheffler is smokin'!

[Don Perignom]

I have run into offshores making week-to-week changes in when and whether they allow buying of half points.

I primarily bet from Nevada, and we just don't have those features in our apps, afaik. Slowly the operators are upgrading though as they progress toward national standardization.

On the other hand, Scheffler is smokin'!

"First hole as a dad." I thought I hated journalists enough.

[kewlJ]

The UFL has been an ATM for many players this year. It also feels like a ticking timebomb to me. Only a couple of the teams actually draw fans and I wouldn't be surprised if they are actually giving tickets away. The league is clearly a made for TV venture and more specifically a made for online gambling venture.

The JonTay Porter incident, is everything all the sports have been worried about with the expansion of gambling, and it just feels like that incident is the tip of what is to come.

For anyone not familiar (and not interested in looking it up), JonTay Porter is/was a nothing NBA player permanently banned from the NBA in April. He wagered on the under on some prop bets involving himself, like points scored, and then took himself out of the game, claiming illness, ensuring the under hit.

There is going to be more and more of this crap. Again, just what the major sports leagues were always so worried about.

[Don Perignom]

UFL

UFL

Which book posts the lines first?

DraftKings has Australian football games out to the 25th, but UFL is still blank for the 18th.

[redietz]

UFL

UFL

Which book posts the lines first?

DraftKings has Australian football games out to the 25th, but UFL is still blank for the 18th.

I haven't seen any numbers this week. Between the teams switching QBs and the weather, I don't blame them.

[Don Perignom]

UFL lines are off and running.

DraftKings had Michigan -7.5, but has shifted to -8.5. Caesars has Memphis +9.

Caesars has some outlier totals, particularly DC/St Louis UNDER 45.5. The others seem to be at 44.5.