Sports Picks

[Half Smoke]

.

I'll probably be making a wimpy show bet (unless he's bet way down which I don't expect to happen) on Catching Freedom today in the Preakness morning line 7/2

he's a deep closer - he comes running late - I'm hoping he won't be too far back to make up the ground

he finished 4th in the Derby only about 2 lengths back of the winner

the probable fave - Mysitk Dan who won the Derby has has 2 clunkers in his record - both times finishing 5th - he's only won 3 out of his 7 races - he's not a powerful fave imo

if he's out of the money and Catching Freedom is in the money the show payout should be larger - all the huge show money bet on the fave will go to the others

[Half Smoke]

.

Winner Winner - Chicken McNuggets dinner - can maybe afford some fries and I'll Super Size my Coke - but the fave was in the money so, the payout won't be great - a shot won it - so maybe a halfway decent payout - waiting to see the payouts

he came strong late as I was hoping

edit - the payout for show was $3.20 for a $2.00 bet - - 60% of the bet was profit - yes, I did bet much more than $2.00 - not a great return but I'll take it - I don't bet often - so when I do and win it feels good

.

[Half Smoke]

.

just for fun

I just found out about this modified martingale strategy - of course I know it's not a winning system but it's pretty interesting

9 stage bets progress as follows with a $10 base - 10 10 40 80 160 320 640 1280 2560

the total risk is $5100 if a bettor loses 9 in a row - pretty interesting that the total risk is actually $10 less than that of a traditional marty of just doubling each time

note that the bettor only gets a tie if he wins his second bet but from his 3rd bet on any win will be 2 units ($20)

I'm going to make a sports pick every day or almost every day with positive odds (slightly negative odds okay if on the 1st or 2nd bet) and see how long I can last before losing 9 in a row - and tracking the winnings as I progress

PREDICTION - I will not lose 9 in a row before they close the lid on my coffin or I'm too feeble to think and type

but I might croak when I'm down - that's okay - I won't need the money then (I'm not actually betting - just picking)

the odds are from covers.com com in the early a.m. - I believe they quote the most common line

and I'm not claiming these are great picks - but some thought is going into them - but I'm not really recommending them - this is just an experiment



today's pick:



Orioles - 102 over Cardinals


.

[Half Smoke]

.
lost step 1

step 2 - $10 - Guardians -116 over Mets

.

[Half Smoke]

.
won yesterday's pick - total - down ($1.38)

today - step 1 - $10 - Phillies -134 over Rangers

.

[Half Smoke]

.
yesterday's pick won - total - up $6.04__________in case you're wondering I do know that a marty can't be a winning system - and is unprofessional - I don't care - it's fun for me - and if I have a small edge then things might be different

.
today's pick - step 1____$10_____Philly - 1.5 + 102 over Rangers


. K.J. made the very good point that playing the spread on the home team means they won't bat in the bottom of the 9th if they're ahead by just one run which is a negative thing about the bet - but the payout is better than if the -1.5 is on the away team - in this case it went from -205 to +102

.

[Half Smoke]

.
I won today's pick - but I've changed my mind - I don't feel like continuing with this - feeling kinna lazy - I've kinna lost interest

I am working on something very interesting - tracking certain MLB bets - and right now things look great - I need a couple more weeks to be sure - if it works out well as I am pretty sure it will I will post about it


.

[kewlJ]

I am looking forward to reading about your new project. I need all the help I can get as my own picks are running about 30% over the past 5 days.

With laying a run and half with home teams, if you get late in the game of a 1 run game, you are kind of screwed. I have had times where I am winning by a run after 8 inning, and then you end up rooting for the other team to score in the top of the ninth, just so you have a chance of winning with a 2+ run homer. That is the only way you can win.

But with the away team laying 1.5, you can still have a big inning in the ninth or even extra innings without that multi run homer.

You are damned if you do and damnef if you don't with this sports betting.

[MDawg]

I am looking forward to reading about your new project. I need all the help I can get

Studying Up so that I may pretend that I am actually betting.

[Garnabby]

Nothing funnier than the forums. Ha.

Too bad that they started out serious, but, then, when this route, instead of the other way around, the natural progression of things.


Garnabby
Garnabby is offline
Platinum
Garnabby's Avatar

Join Date
Aug 2020
Posts
1,042 --------------> 142

[Half Smoke]

.
Yankees - 124 over Padres


Yanks hurler Schmidt 2.59 era______________1.13 whip

Padres Musgrove 6.14 era_________________ 1.52 whip

Yanks are 18-9 away__________Padres are 10-17 at home

Padres have a much better record away then at home which is pretty unusual

.

[Half Smoke]

.

I read on a couple of different sites that MLB underdogs could be a very good bet when playing their same division rivals under certain conditions

but the conditions were restrictive - and meant taking a long time to do a significant tracking

so I decided to track 100 games of all MLB underdogs against their within the same division rivals because I was curious about it

the results were quite astonishing

I now have 81 games - I don't think I need to go to 100 - I'm convinced - but I will track then next 100 games of the same thing

I have done several of these kinds of trackings - all but one were losers so I didn't post about them - and the one that won was not nearly as impressive as this

I kept waiting for a long losing streak to wipe out the winnings - that never happened

also, quite surprising was how many times the extreme fave - such as -190 got beat - meaning a large win for the dog

if you don't believe the results - I don't blame you - and I invite you to go back over the games at covers.com

I always used the early a.m. line and so many times the fave gets bet down late so if my tracking was close to game time my results prolly would have been even better

an obvious question is whether or not this is an anomaly__________I don't think so______but as I said I will keep tracking for a very long time and I will find out for sure




RESULTS_______ last 81 games_____________MLB underdogs against within division rivals_________:




43-38__________profit of $1485 based on $100 bets___________R.O,I.__________18%


.

[Half Smoke]

.
also, quite surprising was how many times the extreme fave - such as -190 got beat - meaning a large win for the dog

in the early a.m. yesterday the Rockies were +265 and the Dodgers iirc were something like -360

the Rockies won the game 4-1

that's the most extreme fave getting beat that I've seen since I've been tracking - but there are many dogs winning at somewhere around +160

..[/QUOTE]

[Elise]

How active is the site? Can I ask a few questions about where there is a better chance of analyzing the upcoming victory? In regular sports or in more specialized ones like betting on horse racing?

[Half Smoke]

How active is the site? Can I ask a few questions about where there is a better chance of analyzing the upcoming victory? In regular sports or in more specialized ones like betting on horse racing?

the leader of this site - Dan Druff - gives some picks on some days - check the "what's new" every day to see his picks
you can try Docsports.com for MLB, NFL and NBA
for horse racing you can try drf.com and racing dudes.com

I've linked those 3 sites for you

.

https://www.docsports.com/free-picks...bets-odds.html

https://racingdudes.com/free-picks/#...0the%20country.

https://www.drf.com/

.

[Elise]

thx

one more question
Are there any traits of unscrupulous online casinos?
Or is it all simple, just use the most popular ones and everything will be fine?
or ask a question in another thread?

[Half Smoke]

thx

one more question
Are there any traits of unscrupulous online casinos?
Or is it all simple, just use the most popular ones and everything will be fine?
or ask a question in another thread?

my answer would be that I don't trust any of them
a very common complaint from sports bettors is that they limit the action of winning players
no doubt some of the morons in online casinos are limiting the action (in sports betting) of players who just got lucky - who are no more capable of beating the lines long term than someone just flipping a coin
the link provides some discussion of this question


https://www.actionnetwork.com/casino...igged-or-legit


.

[Half Smoke]

.
.
at the present time my theory of underdogs against same division rivals having an edge is going down the tubes
in my tracking of the 2nd 100 (for me) - they are currently 7-20 and down 843 - they're getting crushed - completely different than my first tracking of 81 games where they went 43-38 with an r.o.i. of 18%
I will keep tracking until I get 100 - maybe things will turn around
but right now it doesn't look good at all

back to the ole drawing board

.

[kewlJ]

A couple years ago, I read about a similar but slightly more narrow angle of divisional underdogs that ran well and resulted n a positive result for the entire season.

I haven't followed up to are how that ran out n subsequential seasons. And mlb has gone to fewer divisional game format since.

[Half Smoke]

A couple years ago, I read about a similar but slightly more narrow angle of divisional underdogs that ran well and resulted n a positive result for the entire season.

I haven't followed up to are how that ran out n subsequential seasons. And mlb has gone to fewer divisional game format since.

yes, the link shows that - the guy tracked over 12,000 games and found a 0.6 % edge and a greater edge when limiting the bets to when the totals are higher

but who knows if this will hold up - things change all the time

still might be great for scoring bonuses, boosts, and free play

I'm thinking my couple hundred game tracking is not really enough to prove anything



https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...nal%20opponent.