Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
If only I was in LV. Can you push your trip back to the week after?

Redietz, any mutli-disclipined AP readily understands the implied uncertainty but when talking to.other sharps it is implied and no one cares to add a prefix.

What a hill....
Implied uncertainty. You don't get it. If there's a certain degree of "implied uncertainty," and it's not a closed system, you shouldn't be doing "EV estimates" going forward. If you want to do them in retrospect and couch everything with the "this is what was; it's not necessarily what is, and it may bear no resemblance to what will be," then go ahead. Sports wagering is going forward, and you have no established reason to wager going forward. You have at best, a ballpark estimate that has no utility given the margins and the crudity of your estimate. At worst, you're guessing for no good reason other than you're committed to gambling.

This isn't complicated. It's obvious.