Originally Posted by redietz View Post
KewlJ, this is the last post I'll make here until announcing my day-to-day LV schedule. I have avoided mentioning this because I'm really not into, "So-and-so-said," as a substitute for simple, cogent argument, but for you I'll make an exception since you seem to be a knowledgeable AP and respectful of established APs who know more than you and have more experience than you.

You really should stifle the "stupid statements about EV" comments when it comes to sports betting. The whole EV schtick is fine for sports betting in PAST tense. As in, "the EV for doing A, B, and C WAS this." It's also fine when evaluating arbitrage or bonus exploitation. But you really should not lean on "EV" estimates for sports betting in the present or the future. Sports betting is not coin flipping.

My point to you, since you are an "AP," is that your friend and mine, Richard Munchkin, agrees with this and agrees it kind of goes without saying. Which is actually really obvious.
Redietz doesn't comprehend the word expected. If you could only used expected when knowing something had happened it would never be expected value. Redietz thinks he is smart but he is butchering what EV means way beyond what he accuses successful bettors of doing.

Furthermore, I would love to see how that even works in his head. Just because you know the result of an event would in no way let you figure out what was the expectation was prior.