The Wizard's Half Point Parlay Card Threads

[mcap]

Dude, you didn’t play the Colorado side bet

[smurgerburger]

Dude, you didn’t play the Colorado side bet

Succinct.

[mickeycrimm]

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

Obviously.

I'm not the information sharing police, but it's not necessary to hype the opportunities the way he does.

Ditz disputes the "at least 30% edge" Shack claimed. Ditz says he absolutely knows that's to high. Yet the empirical evidence is that in the 4 years Shack did it his lowest year was 172% return.

He didn't have a 72% edge.

Not the point. He exceeded the “at least 30%” he said it was worth. Actually doubled it.

[Don Perignom]

He didn't have a 72% edge.

Not the point. He exceeded the “at least 30%” he said it was worth. Actually doubled it.

He didn't have a 60% edge.

[mickeycrimm]

He didn't have a 72% edge.

Not the point. He exceeded the “at least 30%” he said it was worth. Actually doubled it.

He didn't have a 60% edge.

But his actual results were more than double what he thought the minimum edge was.....and did it thru 4 seasons. That is called empirical evidence.

But since you know what the exact edge was, quit fucking around and tell us what you think it was.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickeycrimm, do you think the fact that Shackleford is well known and easily identified worked against him? Might it have made a difference if he had someone else try to get some of his cards in?

Axel had been doing the half point parlay cards for years by 2013 when Shack decided to create a thread on it. Axel also said he had gotten down to where none of the books would take his action. He and Shack both said they would zero in on who was putting the cards in. So they would use beards to get them in. But even that got to where it wouldn't work.

And the books would disqualify teams that were "on the hot side."

This is interesting. So Axelwolf and surely others had been doing this and starting to have trouble getting the cards in. Along comes Wizard and writes about it in detail on his forum, one of the more popular gambling forums. That couldn't of helped the case.

I get that Shackleford's website and forums were about "helping players to be better gamblers through the math". (or something like that). And although I can't point to anything specific right at the moment, I am sure I have benefited by something I read by Shack at one time or another. But this certainly brushes up against the "loose lips sinks ships" mentality.

There have been a number of times Wizard talked about things that killed plays. One the Magic 21 side bet, my brother and I were involved with in Colorado, when Mike posted about it in detail, just what it was worth. It almost instantaneously killed the play as the casinos in Colorado immediately reduced payouts.

Another the Plaza VP promotion, Mike was not going to be able to play. He was out of town or something. So he posted up just what it was worth per hours, and the casino pulled the best machines even before the promo started. (I was not playing that one).

But there is a definite history or that with this guy. Makes you question who's side he is on?

Now I talk about card counting and different things, but that is all well known. 60 years. Thousands of books. I do occasionally mention some specific techniques that I use that aren't as well know. Things that increased Ev and winnings by a good deal like tracking and immediately jumping to a second table. A couple others that I have never mentioned.

And I talk about some techniques that I do that I am certain have increased my longevity. Like spreading both ways and playing card counter's basis strategy, so as not to play many hands differently during different counts. But again, I figure my loose lips in talking about anything I do specifically, really only harms me if it harms anyone. And I haven't noticed any adverse effect of doing so.

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

According to Shack, he published the Magic 21 strategy two weeks after the play was dead, 21 July 2017. It was actually another WoV member, blackhawkphil, that brought attention to the play on 1 May 2017.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/ques...ackjack-in-co/

[kewlJ]

According to Shack, he published the Magic 21 strategy two weeks after the play was dead, 21 July 2017. It was actually another WoV member, blackhawkphil, that brought attention to the play on 1 May 2017.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/ques...ackjack-in-co/

Wizard is incorrect mickey. Either intentionally or unintentionally. If you read his posted July 21 he says: "The play is pretty much dead" and "I have heard everybody has put a max bet on this of $25 or less". THIS IS FALSE! He "heard" wrong.

The play was in the process of dying it is true. Some casinos had started to reduce the amount of the side bet from the full $100 Max (Colorado limit at the time) to 25% of the main bet or $25. But not everywhere. It was a casino by casino movement.

We were camped out, living in a motel playing 2 properties at the time. The day wizard made that post Max bets were 100% of main bet or $100. The day after he made that post Max Bets for the side bet had dropped to 25% or $25. I came home the next day. My brother stayed for a few days looking around and of course found nothing.

Wizard put the final stake in that play! And I didn't know it at the time but other AP's playing that play, begged him to hold off and he didn't. Maybe it would have only been a few extra days or weeks, but he made sure it ended that day.

[MDawg]

This dude is a fraud. He just tries to piece together things that he imagines goes on based on a culmination of bits and pieces of stories he pulls from the Internet. Clown world.

The thing about KJ - if you actually read what he writes - is that he constantly echoes the words/phrases and themes of the immediately previous replies by others. As I noted, a while back, he's extremely suggestible. Not someone in control of even his own life. People don't always end up in places like Vegas by their own conscious volition. My guess would be some nut-job living from one day to the next, now on the internet. Certainly of negligible intelligence, etc.

UNKewlJ:

hand cocked onto his side, the bent elbow and the high pitched whiny voice complaining, "Now wayyyyt a minute, Misterrrrr."

"I did that play, and I did it firrst" (toothless grin, head turned sideways).

[kewlJ]

Shut the fuck up Mdawg you fucking desert nigger asshole. All you do is troll and hijack. You contribute nothing and know nothing about real advantage play and winning. Just silly stories of "Casinos let me spread 1-50 and win as much as I want. They don't care". Your claims are as real as Evenbob's claims of winning 80% at roulette.

[cyberbabble]

KJ has made the Colorado claim at least once before. Probably it was here but I'm not interested in searching for it. I didn't post about it last time because it seemed a waste of time. Since KJ keeps claiming it, I will post.

This is a GWAE interview with Cartwright. It's his fourth time on the show so Dancer/Muchkin believe he is credible. I know some people don't like Dancer but they did try to have good guests for the show.

http://www.slot-machine-resource.com...artwright4.mp3

It's an hour long, has other topics, and I don't want to listen again. I try to summarize from memory.

Buffalo Blackjack was used to describe the game of blackjack with the 2 side bets. It was only available in Colorado casinos.

Cartwright found the game early. He is a computer guy. He did his own analysis.

Word spread and other people were coming in to play it. Wizard mentioned in WoV that he was working on an analysis.

Cartwright contacted the Wiz and asked him to hold off publishing for a while. Wiz agreed.

Wiz waited awhile and then published.

Cartwright said the casinos realized they were getting hurt and cut the paytable or dropped the game. He said by the time the Wiz published there was only one casino still offering the game and there were many people trying to play it.

Wiz didn't kill the play.

Was KJ playing it? His network covers the country and maybe somebody tipped him. He was able to find his special blackjack machine in casinos halfway across the country by putting the word out over his network.

[Rob.Singer]

Shut the fuck up Mdawg you fucking desert nigger asshole. All you do is troll and hijack. You contribute nothing and know nothing about real advantage play and winning. Just silly stories of "Casinos let me spread 1-50 and win as much as I want. They don't care". Your claims are as real as Evenbob's claims of winning 80% at roulette.

I kinda enjoy you being used as his whipping post. You've certainly earned the right.

Give us more to the tale about what you claim wizard did to you this time. I'm liking that too!

[kewlJ]

KJ has made the Colorado claim at least once before. Probably it was here but I'm not interested in searching for it. I didn't post about it last time because it seemed a waste of time. Since KJ keeps claiming it, I will post.

This is a GWAE interview with Cartwright. It's his fourth time on the show so Dancer/Muchkin believe he is credible. I know some people don't like Dancer but they did try to have good guests for the show.

http://www.slot-machine-resource.com...artwright4.mp3

It's an hour long, has other topics, and I don't want to listen again. I try to summarize from memory.

Buffalo Blackjack was used to describe the game of blackjack with the 2 side bets. It was only available in Colorado casinos.

Cartwright found the game early. He is a computer guy. He did his own analysis.

Word spread and other people were coming in to play it. Wizard mentioned in WoV that he was working on an analysis.

Cartwright contacted the Wiz and asked him to hold off publishing for a while. Wiz agreed.

Wiz waited awhile and then published.

Cartwright said the casinos realized they were getting hurt and cut the paytable or dropped the game. He said by the time the Wiz published there was only one casino still offering the game and there were many people trying to play it.

Wiz didn't kill the play.

Was KJ playing it? His network covers the country and maybe somebody tipped him. He was able to find his special blackjack machine in casinos halfway across the country by putting the word out over his network.

Some how I had never heard that episode. I tended to listen to GWAE in spurts. I also tended to tune out early on topics that didn't interest me (which probably wasn't a good idea). So I just listened in full. Not exactly sure when the interview occurred but obviously after the play had ended. Maybe fairly soon after it had ended. One comment and make of it what you will. Cartwright has a pretty distinct voice. Not quite as distinct as Munchkin, but still pretty distinct.

Ok, so I didn't learn a whole lot new, since the discussion was all after the fact. I was surprised his strategy didn't involve tracking or side counting aces. More aces remaining was a very important thing. You weren't going to lower or raise (couldn't) your bet depending on number of aces used or remaining, so I guess he decided it just didn't matter. But I think more aces remaining was worth more than an additional 1% that he suggested.

As I started listen there was something that immediately seemed contradictory or that he was hiding, but he clarified at the end. That was at the beginning he said he played for 1 weekend (because he had a regular job). But the experiences he was sharing were certainly from more than 1 weekend worth of play. But towards the end he clarified that he initially played for 1 weekend, then went home. Then returned the following weekend and played for a week and a half until the games in that town started being reduced to 25% main bet. THAT would have put him fairly late to the game.

Looking back on the whole evolution of the game and play, the amazing thing is that the game hit casinos in Colorado in 2011. And it wasn't until June/July 2017 that the AP exploded took place. That is amazing! Makes you wonder how many AP type players figured it out early and just quietly played it. Maybe not even close to optimally, but at $1000/hour, you could play non-optyimally and do pretty good. But I am sure the same occurred with card counting. Surely there were players doing some form of card counting for years before Thorp did his thing.

Anyway, it is pretty much ancient history. I am not pissed at Shackleford, although I was pretty annoyed, maybe even pissed at the time. It is just that based not only on this event, but other situations where he "outed" plays, I don't get why he does that. I think it is selfish and I think it is ego. A "look what I know" type thing.

Cyberbabble is correct in that I network with various players around the country. Always have. Mostly players I know from other forums (certainly not this one as this doesn't even qualify as an AP forum). That has always been a useful tool for me, although most cases they don't share all that much until after the fact (especially with plays and conditions). They hold back. Guess what? I hold back too. For years players would tell me they are coming to Vegas and ask me to direct them to a strong game. You think I ever told anyone about the 6 deck game dealing 87-90% (6+ decks)? With surrender no less. Must have skipped my mind.

But then occasional someone does share something, maybe a play they are not going after for whatever reason. Maybe they don't want to or can't travel. Maybe they are involved in a different play at the time and don't want to pull out of that. This was sort of the case with this Magic 21 play for us and how I came to find myself living in motels in Colorado for a month. Nothing more to add.

[MDawg]

Dude, you didn’t play the Colorado side bet

Succinct.

And truthful.

[mickeycrimm]

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

Sure, but it's been being done for decades. Sklansky, Malmuth, Dancer, Shackleford have all been consultants for casinos giving them information that harms AP's.

Remember Revel, 11 years ago. Shack wrote the strategy to play the 100K loss rebate. Dancer, looking for a consulting contract, gave the information to Revel for free and told them what machines to pull. He did it for free then pumped them for a consulting contract which failed to materialize.

Pretty much everything being published on strategy is harming AP's in the long run because it ain't just the AP's learning it. The casinos learn it to. In my area, machines, there's a ton of new information out there with more and more being published everyday.

Even Shack is publishing information on advantage slots. His latest book, the 2023 edition of Gambling 102 has a section on advantage slots. All current games to. But I've seen information like that being exposed for years now.

I usually don't do the tirade stuff when I see strategies I use get published on the internet. What the fuck are you going to do? You can't tell people not to do it. Just have to live with it.

But it would be fun just to fuck with Shack just a little bit, redietz style. Now let's see. How would redietz word it?

Hey, Shack, we were doing that shit years ago. Oodles of people. Why are you acting like you are the one that invented it? It don't do us AP's any favors publishing shit like this. Fucking over the wiseguys just to make it look like you invented it. And they could change the chips in those machines any day which would make your strategy obsolete, dufus. This shit is plain as the nose on your face. If you can't recognize it you got a problem. PS: You learned more in this post than you learned reading Shack's entire Gambling 102.
_______________________________________
Yep, that was fun acting like Ditz. Now back to normal.

Pic below is of the slot games Shack wrote about. A lot of you will recognize them. He also covers the strategy for UX, UX Bonus Streak and UX Keno.

[kewlJ]

But seriously, not to attack shackleford, but isn't there a case to be made that he harms AP's?

Sure, but it's been being done for decades. Sklansky, Malmuth, Dancer, Shackleford have all been consultants for casinos giving them information that harms AP's.

Remember Revel, 11 years ago. Shack wrote the strategy to play the 100K loss rebate. Dancer, looking for a consulting contract, gave the information to Revel for free and told them what machines to pull. He did it for free then pumped them for a consulting contract which failed to materialize.

Pretty much everything being published on strategy is harming AP's in the long run because it ain't just the AP's learning it. The casinos learn it to. In my area, machines, there's a ton of new information out there with more and more being published everyday.

Even Shack is publishing information on advantage slots. His latest book, the 2023 edition of Gambling 102 has a section on advantage slots. All current games to. But I've seen information like that being exposed for years now.

I usually don't do the tirade stuff when I see strategies I use get published on the internet. What the fuck are you going to do? You can't tell people not to do it. Just have to live with it.

But it would be fun just to fuck with Shack just a little bit, redietz style. Now let's see. How would redietz word it?

Hey, Shack, we were doing that shit years ago. Oodles of people. Why are you acting like you are the one that invented it? It don't do us AP's any favors publishing shit like this. Fucking over the wiseguys just to make it look like you invented it. And they could change the chips in those machines any day which would make your strategy obsolete, dufus. This shit is plain as the nose on your face. If you can't recognize it you got a problem. PS: You learned more in this post than you learned reading Shack's entire Gambling 102.
_______________________________________
Yep, that was fun acting like Ditz. Now back to normal.

Pic below is of the slot games Shack wrote about. A lot of you will recognize them. He also covers the strategy for UX, UX Bonus Streak and UX Keno.

There is a lot to comment on here mickeycrimm. I'll leave the redeitz response speculation untouched. That is your thing. Some of it kind of funny, but just not relevant to me.

A couple blackjack guys to add to what I will call your "traitor" list who have worked with the casinos against AP's. Furguson (Wong) and Lawrence Revere. I learned a lot from Wong. When I ran into him a couple times at Westin, he actually showed me how to beat the Dealer's Angels BJ game. But my like and appreciation doesn't excuse the fact that he worked for/with casinos. Eliot also.

I just don't share your non-chalant "What are you going to do" attitude. As AP's we fight a "war" against the casinos to be able to do what we do. Table game and card counters for a very long time and almost daily. AP's that do other things, it has caught up to and they now fight that same war. And it IS a war. In real war, when someone does this, they are a traitor. It is treason and punishable by death. I am not suggesting that. But these APs turned casino consultants (or writing books exposing plays), traitors deserve all the ill will they get. I view it as taking money from my pocket. Nothing less.

I wonder how the mob would handle traitors and rat finks (to use monet's word)? Yeah, I wonder?

[kewlJ]

I have spoken many times to a player who played with Eliot and considered him a friend. He tells me Eliot wanted to be a card counter for a living and just couldn't. That he had a problem putting out the bigger wagers, especially when things were running bad. Of course this is very different than the Bio Eliot paints. But this is something that actually ends many card counters "dreams". They just aren't cut out for it, no matter how much they want it.

So as a math guy, understanding gambling math, you can almost understand someone like Eliot turning to the other side, since he can't cut it as an AP. ALMOST!!

But some of these other guys, including Wong, Shack, Dancer ect, by all accounts were successful advantage players. To then just consult and teach the dark side things for a few bucks, is just unforgivable to me.

That is just me. It also is why I always kept my distance. With Eliot, a number of card counters believe that he not only went over to the dark side, but took names and identities of players that he knew with him. He denies that.

[smurgerburger]

Corny.

[kewlJ]

This reminds me of a couple blackjack traitors that I don't even know their names. In my first few years in Vegas, there was a male-female team of "counter-catchers" working downtown. I am not sure exactly who they worked for, maybe multiple casinos, maybe some sort of collaboration. You would see the from the Plaza all the way to El Cortez, and various places in between (golden Nugget, The D ect). Word was they were a husband and wife team of failed card counters turned traitors.

They would wonder around watching games and players and next thing you know you were getting the tap. They weren't very discreate and easy to spot. I quickly learned to just move on when I spotted them. And then they disappeared. Hopefully they were at the Harvest music Festival in 2017 (LV mass shooting) or came to some equally as hideous end.

[Don Perignom]

But since you know what the exact edge was, quit fucking around and tell us what you think it was.

I think this is the most relevant chart from his writeup:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/sport...ng/nfl-parlay/



Core concept is to pick only the games with a significant edge. Usually this involves the key point spreads of 3 or 7, but can also include other games with big line moves (assuming the book doesn't restrict those games).

The more picks on your card, the more your edge is compounded. On a 12-leg card, the edge reaches 100%. But if I understand correctly, that's almost impossible to be available. Also, the variance is astronomical. Your odds of hitting are almost 1500-to-1 against. (He mentions one book with a small consolation payout for catching 11 of 12.)

Realistically as he suggests in his commentary, you typically only have around 4 viable picks available which translates to a 14% edge on the chart.

If you look through those threads, there were many lackluster weeks without any strong opportunities.

For such a high-variance endeavor, I think caution is required in assessing actual results. Even on the pick-4 at 14% edge, you're still 11-to-1 against. I believe Wizard was reasonably able to estimate his EV. In the later discussions, he assigns each pick a value in "basis points" -- but I'm not clear on the computational procedure.

Ultimately, his overall edge depended on his play criteria. If he only played the best weekends, I can see that he could have been up near 30%. But to get the 30% on a pick-6, you're 38-to-1 against.

[MDawg]

This reminds me of a couple blackjack traitors that I don't even know their names. In my first few years in Vegas, there was a male-female team of "counter-catchers" working downtown. I am not sure exactly who they worked for, maybe multiple casinos, maybe some sort of collaboration. You would see the from the Plaza all the way to El Cortez, and various places in between (golden Nugget, The D ect). Word was they were a husband and wife team of failed card counters turned traitors.

They would wonder around watching games and players and next thing you know you were getting the tap. They weren't very discreate and easy to spot. I quickly learned to just move on when I spotted them. And then they disappeared. Hopefully they were at the Harvest music Festival in 2017 (LV mass shooting) or came to some equally as hideous end.

This tunnel dwelling fraud doesn't have a clue as to what is really going on out there. He just reads shit on the Internet and lets his imagination run wild...lol

This dude is a fraud. He just tries to piece together things that he imagines goes on based on a culmination of bits and pieces of stories he pulls from the Internet. Clown world.