Originally Posted by redietz View Post
No need to be jealous or bitter.

My best uninformed guess is that, as Daniel Negreanu famously said, "The people who make a living playing actual tournaments are about as common as birds with teeth." That may be true enough. However, some folks have done analyses of expert poker skill players versus average civilians in something as soft as the WSOP Main Event, and their estimates have mostly ranged from a +200 to a +400 advantage for an expert versus a civilian. In other words, the experts in a real soft no limit hold 'em tournament are likely to, over time, double their buy-in at least. The problem, of course, is that as the buy-in goes up, the skill level of average players in the specific tourney goes up, so at some point you shouldn't be playing them. Classic diminishing returns.

I guess the lesson would then be that they should play just the popular no limit hold 'em tournaments and nothing else if they actually want to be ahead lifetime. No big stakes tournaments, no pot limit, no omaha, no mixed games.

The house is making a fortune on the whole WSOP schtick. No doubt about it. But I still wouldn't turn up my nose at +200. That's likely the softest 10K tournament in the world, so it's not indicative of others. A lot of numbers guys, like Dancer and "Anthony Curtis" have dabbled in no limit hold 'em and spun their wheels, so the whole endeavor is daunting.

I'm blabbing about all this, but I'm strictly a civilian. I've never played in a tournament that cost me more than $100, although I've won my way into $200 to $500 entry type tournaments through feeders. Small tournaments provide all manner of opportunities for team play and signaling. I know nothing, but sitting at some little LV tournaments, I've told friends in the tournaments, "If I say this, I have this. If I do this, I have this." I have to presume everybody does this stuff. You have dealers playing at many of these little LV tournaments (off their home casino), and I have to believe they are all doing some team play much of the time.
You're kinda right about the nl tournaments but also wrong. In plo8 you have people who know holdem but absolutely horrible at plo8. Really there aren't that many no nlhe tournaments so it is all sorta moot.

I don't think cheating in tournaments is much of an issue. Small tournaments seem to be more likely to have cheating but still I've never heard of it being an issue.

You're going to be cheated in the cash games far far more likely. Same players over and over. Preparing to cheat effectively in hopes you wind up in the right situations in a tournament doesn't seem like a sharp endeavor.

No, not everyone is a cheater and you presumed wrong. Most aren't but after you're around poker enough it can be fairly easy to have a guess. For example - people over 25 who think gangsters are cool will readily cheat.

Singer has such little fucking clue about everything. You are surprising in your humbleness in this post and have a decent grounding of whats going on. Singer's post doesn't even make sense to a person who understands even the most basic reality of this stuff.

I'm almost positive I could make 6 figures working considerably less than 40 hours a week. I will see when my app has accumulated more hours but playing poker to "grind" isn't very fun. It is easy to make a living playing tournaments but it isnt' easy to make more than you would applying yourself semi-optimally elsewhere. Actually it depends on volume which is a function of where you're located. I'm a nit nlhe gtoish (in some aspects) player with hella good reading. I crush cash nlhe from what I've seen. I am roughly break-even elsewhere. Cash poker has a lot of politics. I have more than 1 pro put up signficant effort to keep me out of cash games around town. lol. I'd love to say more but I don't care to dox myself to a lurker. Recs like me but they're not poker losers.

The problem with tournaments is the amount of play needed to realize your EV. You also have this schedule to deal with (like a real job) and for big money you have to come back the next day. I won't be able to sleep if I go final table some 10k tournament. I'm getting as long-winded as you Redietz but I've thought too much about poker in my life. If there is one thing I can give solid meta advice on - it is poker. I've considered playing tournaments more. I hate LV too much for WSOP but if I tried I could have fun.