Originally Posted by redietz View Post
No need to be jealous or bitter.

My best uninformed guess is that, as Daniel Negreanu famously said, "The people who make a living playing actual tournaments are about as common as birds with teeth." That may be true enough. However, some folks have done analyses of expert poker skill players versus average civilians in something as soft as the WSOP Main Event, and their estimates have mostly ranged from a +200 to a +400 advantage for an expert versus a civilian. In other words, the experts in a real soft no limit hold 'em tournament are likely to, over time, double their buy-in at least. The problem, of course, is that as the buy-in goes up, the skill level of average players in the specific tourney goes up, so at some point you shouldn't be playing them. Classic diminishing returns.

I guess the lesson would then be that they should play just the popular no limit hold 'em tournaments and nothing else if they actually want to be ahead lifetime. No big stakes tournaments, no pot limit, no omaha, no mixed games.

The house is making a fortune on the whole WSOP schtick. No doubt about it. But I still wouldn't turn up my nose at +200. That's likely the softest 10K tournament in the world, so it's not indicative of others. A lot of numbers guys, like Dancer and "Anthony Curtis" have dabbled in no limit hold 'em and spun their wheels, so the whole endeavor is daunting.

I'm blabbing about all this, but I'm strictly a civilian. I've never played in a tournament that cost me more than $100, although I've won my way into $200 to $500 entry type tournaments through feeders. Small tournaments provide all manner of opportunities for team play and signaling. I know nothing, but sitting at some little LV tournaments, I've told friends in the tournaments, "If I say this, I have this. If I do this, I have this." I have to presume everybody does this stuff. You have dealers playing at many of these little LV tournaments (off their home casino), and I have to believe they are all doing some team play much of the time.
You would be wrong.