Dan Druff's 2024 MLB picks

[kewlJ]

Dan Druff, just bet the Phillies every day. The win, usually by 2+ and score more that 5 runs most days. Find some combination of those things to bet and you can't go wrong right now.

[Dan Druff]

Attention Dodgers haters.

Bobby Miller has NOT been good since returning from a long DL stint. In fact, even his minor league rehab outings were not good (though he did manage to touch 99 on his fastball).

You can get the Diamondbacks for a pretty good dog line (like +165 since I last checked). The Dodgers lineup is also thin with Mookie and Muncy on the DL, though the bottom half has somehow performed lately.

Being a big Dodgers fan I will not bet against them, but if I weren't, I'd strongly consider betting Arizona today.

But you know what I will do? A first 5 over. Not only is Miller having problems, but so is Ryne Nelson, who will be taking over for Arizona opener Joe Mantiply.

Also... going with the Padres.


San Diego (Cease) -113 at Texas (Eovaldi)
Dodgers (B. Miller) at Arizona (bullpen) - OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -110

[Dan Druff]

About to start:

Oakland (Sears) -110 vs Anaheim (Canning)

[Dan Druff]

Easy win.

Tonight:

I hate being a fucking ploppy but this one really is calling out to me.

River Ryan is the #34-ish ranked MLB prospect, and is on the Dodgers. His MLB debut tonight will be at home against SF. He's facing Blake Snell. Yes, the bottom of the Dodgers lineup is thin, given the team is missing Mookie Betts and Max Muncy, and it was already thin to begin with.

But...

- The Giants are 20-30 on the road this year

- Blake Snell has an ERA over 6, even though his last 2 starts were strong

- The Giants lineup simply isn't that good


Were this something like a -150 line, we wouldn't be discussing anything.

But at -122, I like the Dodgers here.


Dodgers (Riv. Ryan) -122 vs San Francisco (Snell)

[Dan Druff]

I've got an over on two offensive juggernauts.... Oakland and Anaheim!

But stick with me here.

Ross Stripling was horrendous in May before finally getting put on the DL for 2 months. He's back today.

Kenny Rosenburg has never pitched well in his limited stints in MLB since 2022, and this will be his first start of 2024. He's pitched (poorly) in relief thus far.

Oakland (Rosenburg) at Anaheim (Stripling) - OVER 9.5 -120

[Dan Druff]

Won last 3.

Today:

Atlanta (Morton) +123 at Mets (Senga)

Kodai Senga, who is coming off the DL (finally), got hammered in his AAA rehab start.

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta up 2-0. Nice start.

If you missed it, here's a bet on the Angels.

Paul Blackburn is another pitcher like Ross Stripling the other day. Pitched horribly in May and got put on the 60-day DL. Just came off of it. Had a horrible start in rehab at AAA.

You can get almost even money here fading him, plus Angels are at home!

Anaheim (Fulmer) -114 vs Oakland (Blackburn)

[Dan Druff]

Wow... 2-0 lead for Atlanta, 4-0 lead for Anaheim, lost both. Ouch.

Today:

Post CG letdown.

Pitchers don't throw 9 innings anymore. Used to be common. Now it's extremely rare.

Seth Lugo, having a dream season, threw 9 on July 21 against the hapless White Sox. It was a good game, and it took him 103 pitches to complete.

However, I have seen the phenomenon where pitchers who throw CG then have a subpar start next time out, presumably due to fatigue.

Seth Lugo also has never thrown more than 146.3 innings in a season. What's his inning count now? 136. Also, despite his eye-popping overall numbers, he gave up 5 ER and 10 H two starts ago, and has given up 4-5 ER three times since early June.

I'll go with Shota Imanaga on this one, who just pitched two great games against Baltimore and Arizona.

Cubs (Imanaga) +121 at Kansas City (Lugo)


Warning: Sharps are on the other side of this one, for the most part.

[Dan Druff]

Won above.

Here's something interesting.

Watch this interview with Sonny Gray, after his last start which didn't go well:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1817050130593272118



In his last 5 starts, spanning 28 1/3 innings, Gray has given up 21 ER. This wasn't from one bombing. Three starts saw 5 ER, the other two saw 3 ER.

He's given up 5 ER in back to back starts.

This could be just an outlier where he got unlucky for 5 straight starts. He struck out 10 against Atlanta on July 20, but gave up 4 HR. He isn't walking that many people.

However, there's something weird about that interview. He talks about having to find the commitment to pitch well again. He admits to feeling physically fine. It almost seems like he's going through something but doesn't want to talk about it.

Now, how would you like to oppose the troubled Gray? How would you like to oppose him when he's on the road? How would you like to oppose him for basically even money? How would you like your pitcher to be Shota Imanaga?

You would?

You're in luck.

Cubs (Imanaga) -114 vs St. Louis (S. Gray)

[redietz]

Won above.

Here's something interesting.

Watch this interview with Sonny Gray, after his last start which didn't go well:

Embedded Tweet

https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1817050130593272118



In his last 5 starts, spanning 28 1/3 innings, Gray has given up 21 ER. This wasn't from one bombing. Three starts saw 5 ER, the other two saw 3 ER.

He's given up 5 ER in back to back starts.

This could be just an outlier where he got unlucky for 5 straight starts. He struck out 10 against Atlanta on July 20, but gave up 4 HR. He isn't walking that many people.

However, there's something weird about that interview. He talks about having to find the commitment to pitch well again. He admits to feeling physically fine. It almost seems like he's going through something but doesn't want to talk about it.

Now, how would you like to oppose the troubled Gray? How would you like to oppose him when he's on the road? How would you like to oppose him for basically even money? How would you like your pitcher to be Shota Imanaga?

You would?

You're in luck.

Cubs (Imanaga) -114 vs St. Louis (S. Gray)

I know nothing about baseball, but it is that time. I am going to pull the trigger today (and probably tomorrow). For a hint as to on whom, check out my "For Monet" thread.

[redietz]

ChiSox. Half the wager on the moneyline. Half the wager on the run line.

Say thank you. Will decide whether to fire tomorrow a couple of hours before the game. Any wager will be half of today's wager.

[Dan Druff]

Fade Corbin Burnes.

Starting 4:15pm PDT.

Is Corbin "Burneing" out? Maybe. He allowed 5 runs in his last outing, and hasn't put up a zero-run outing since June 10. He's given up 9 ER in his last 19 IP over his prior 3 starts.

Tampa's starting with an opener who is inconsequential, but will then continue with Tyler Alexander, who was great last time out against the Astros (in Houston), but has also had some stinkers mixed in. He is one of these guys who is inconsistent, so don't blame me if he gets bombed. But he could very well pitch decently. In his past 3 appearances, he's allowed just 1 run in his past 9 2/3 innings.

I suggest you take "action" on this game, as the Tampa "starter" doesn't matter, and another starter instead of Burnes would be fine too.

Tampa (bullpen/Alexander) +121 vs Baltimore (Burnes)

[Dan Druff]

Lost above pick.

Total runs+hits+RBI Ohtani over 1.5 -145 (versus Milwaukee in MIL)

[Dan Druff]

Won due to HR on Ohtani's 3rd AB.

Tonight we are going to bet on the wind.

10mph wind blowing out at ATT Park tonight at 6:30pm. Decreasing to 7mph by 9pm.

Charlie Morton, who is almost 41, has been an enigma. In 2 of his last 3 starts, Morton has given up 3 and 4 HR -- in just 2 2/3 innings each! The August 1 start in between he was great, but that was against Miami. Occasionally Morton will throw a good game, but he seems to be having problems with the longball, giving up 11 HR in his past 5 games.

Kyle Harrison, who is definitely NOT near 41, is also having HR issues. He gave up 4 at Cincy on August 3. In his last start at Washington, he was removed after just 61 pitches, and his fastball was often in the 80s. Not good!

I like seeing these two facing up tonight with the wind blowing out, so you know which direction I'm going.

Atlanta (Morton) at San Francisco (Harrison) - OVER 8 -110

[Dan Druff]

Lost, though had a decent chance in extras.

Buehler alert

Didn't pitch well in rehab start. I think the guy is cooked.

Dodgers (Buehler) at Milwaukee (Montas) - OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS -102

[Half Smoke]

.
imho the o/u is definitely easier to beat than the money line on the game winner

and the props - such as the one you beat above - easier than that

.

[Dan Druff]

Decided to go with a triple.

Waldron, please get bombed.

Colorado (Quantrill) +144 vs San Diego (Waldron)
Matt Waldron under 16.5 outs recorded -130
Colorado/SD Over 6 First 5 innings -110

[Dan Druff]

Wow, soooooo close to 3-0 above.

Over easily won.

Colorado easily won.

Waldron, despite giving up 6 early, was allowed to stay in through the 6th. He allowed a leadoff double, was well over 90 pitches, and still stayed in, despite it being a 6-3 game. He then retired the next 2 batters, killing my bet. Then he allowed the run to score on the next batter, and he was taken out. Damn.

Anyway, still came away +1.35 units.

[Dan Druff]

Starting shortly:

Dodgers (B. Miller) at St. Louis (Pallante) - OVER 5 FIRST 5 INNINGS

Miller hasn't even looked good at AAA. Another pitcher who is not ready to be in MLB again.

[Dan Druff]

The latest in a series of "5 innings over bets on struggling pitchers"

Taj Bradley looks like he has decent numbers (3.49, 1.143 ERA), but he has scuffled badly in his last 3 starts, including against lowly Miami.

Joe Boyle has a 7.39 ERA and 1.832 WHIP over 31 innings this year.

I like over 4 runs being plated here, even with the sad offenses of the A's and Rays.


Oakland (Boyle) vs Tampa (T. Bradley) - OVER 4 -105 FIRST 5 INNINGS


*** NOTE: Sharps aren't on my side on this one