EV for Poker is usually determined based on "Past Results". Most AP games you can determine an exact edge since a value can be placed on each and every action. Poker is different because you have the "human element".Originally Posted by coach belly
Is there a mathematical basis for their predictions?Originally Posted by Half Smoke
Is a mathematical basis required for the guesstimates to be valid?
If not math, then what criteria could they use?
Generally when it comes to EV in Poker, it is determined 2 ways. The first is the players long-term ACTUAL results. If a player has played full time for 15 years, the amount won divided by the amount of entry fees. This amount would be the players long-term EV, (Negative or Positive). The second method of determining EV is by evaluating the strength of the field. There are tournaments that are historically soft due to the field makeup. Others may historically have a strong field of players.
With poker, it's not an exact or precise number. I believe the most accurate method is to calculate a players long-term past results then adjust that number up or down based on the strength of a particular tournament.
Since there is so much data available for the history of tournament results, an index can be created by taking a players long-term "Average Win" (as a percentage), then compare that to how players preform in each specific tournament over a multi year period. This can give you a specific number that says "the average winning player preforms 7% lower than their own long-term results", or vise versa in a specific tournament. There likely already is something like this out there.
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