Todd update WSOP

[PositiveVariance]

I can't remember what casino it was that Wizard reported on, that had the sequential Royal bonus. Everyone playing this machine was 103%-105% (IIRC). Thousands played, one person won, but EVERYONE is +EV. Variance is a Bitch.

Same example with the linked Ultimate Texas HoldEm Bonus Jackpot. Earlier this year, Wasn't it around 105%? (+EV). Tens of thousands played. Only 1 person REALISED the Value (6-7 figures), but all were +EV. Variance is a Bitch.

Due to variance, Expected Value is eventually realized, by someone, but that someone may or may NOT be you!

Remember, EV can take longer than the human lifespan to realize the actual value. This is why variance matters!

[coach belly]

I don't know what happened here, but you didn't quote my question properly.

Regarding individual players' long-term EV, have most pros cashed for more money in main event, than the total of their entry fees?

Have more Pros cashed for more money in main event, than their entry fees?

[PositiveVariance]

Another way to describe Expected Value is AVERAGE VALUE.

[PositiveVariance]

I don't know what happened here, but you didn't quote my question properly.

Regarding individual players' long-term EV, have most pros cashed for more money in main event, than the total of their entry fees?

Have more Pros cashed for more money in main event, than their entry fees?

My apologies.

That would depend on the structure of the payouts. Some tournaments pay "heavier" towards the top, others being weighted more equal. Without running the numbers, I am not sure off the top of my head.

A rough guess, I will say No.

[coach belly]

Thousands play, one wins, but EVERYONE is +EV.

Everyone that uses optimal playing strategy is +EV...not everyone who plays.

Most AP games you can determine an exact edge since a value can be placed on each and every action. Poker is different because you have the "human element".

Considering poker, if an individual player's EV can be determined, by the method below, to be negative, then how can his EV also be positive, based on his status as a pro?

the amount won divided by the amount of entry fees. This amount would be the players long-term EV, (Negative or Positive).

[coach belly]

That would depend on the structure of the payouts. Some tournaments pay "heavier" towards the top, others being weighted more equal.

My examination pertains to the structure of the tournament that you specified here..

The WSOP Main Event is highly +EV for most Pros.

[PositiveVariance]

That would depend on the structure of the payouts. Some tournaments pay "heavier" towards the top, others being weighted more equal.

My examination pertains to the structure of the tournament that you specified here..

The WSOP Main Event is highly +EV for most Pros.

I understand your question and I would have to do more calculations to find the answer.

HOWEVER, regardless if the answer is either "Yes or No", this does not change the fact that the "Main Event is +EV to pros".

I believe you are correlating if, "More than half the players have cashed out in excess of their entry fee", with the game being +EV or not.

There is not a direct correlation between the two. All it would determine is that a significant amount of EV is being realized by a small percentage of players.

[kewlJ]

PV, I think most of us on this forum, not all, but most, understand the terms +EV and "variance" and the relationship between the two. But for anyone who doesn't, you have done a really good job of explaining it.....if they really want to understand

ANY game that a significant part of the +EV is reliant on some large jackpot hit, or winning one of the upper end amounts in a poker tournament, the variance is going to be great. And that is why I have always steered clear of those things and focused on variance that I can "control" (not a good word) more.

Even something like Video Poker. You can be playing a +EV game off the top, 100+ return, but if you are 10 cycles in at 400,000 rounds and have only hit 2 Royal's when the expectation is 10, you are going to be in the red despite all those rounds being played at +EV.

Even blackjack, which I rely on, the top prize or reward is much smaller....whatever your max bet is, but if you go through a run, that you lose the majority of your max bets for weeks or even several months, you are almost surely going to be on a negative run, despite playing +EV. (I have done so many times).

But the difference is I can control these shorter runs, even several hundred thousand trials. But you get into a situation where the +EV is so reliant on hitting some massive jackpot type win or finishing in the top 5 in some tournament, you can't necessarily control that for the longer period of time it would take to overcome such negative variance.

[MDawg]

I'm rather certain he has money from something he feels shame over.
Most likely a prostitute

Pretending to be some hero AP gives him purpose and a sense of accomplishment.

If you examine the UNKewl posts, almost EVERY ONE includes some soft whine about how, Pleeeease listen to me, I am not just a male prostitute, I have played BJ for 20 years and supported myself, almost EVERY ONE includes some soft whine about how, Pleeeease listen to me MDawg and R.Singer aren't really beating the casinos, almost EVERY ONE includes some soft whine summary of his ENTIRE boring life story (replete with contradictory lies).

Recently, he posted about how he doesn't understand how or why the founding fathers created the Electoral College, and yet he wants us to believe that he graduated from a private four year college without ever taking the U.S. History that many completed in high school (Adv. Placement US History). This gal is just a mass of contradictions and lies that make it obvious that it's a street raised bum desperate for the attention that his own family denied him when they kicked him out.

KewlJ has proven he lies, is a drama queen, loves attention, and is generally an annoying gnat.

FOUR versions of the lie:

1) Never went to college, never got his degree

I didn't have the opportunity to go to college

"I have done fine making money without a college degree."



"I have been pretty open about my education and not having the chance to go to college"



"You haters like to call me uneducated because I didn't have the opportunity to go to college as I had planned. " (And, like the lying chameleon that he is, trying hard to put himself in the company of people who also never graduated college, but did well.)



2) Went to college and graduated

"I graduated college in 2014 and moved to Las Vegas and moved in with my brother. "



3) Went to Villanova but attended only 1 year, no degree

But I did well enough to have been accepted at a private catholic university on Philadelphia's exclusive mainline. I only attended for one year.

4) Went to Villanova attended 3 years, dropped out, got his degree online





Bottom line is this pathological liar can't even keep his lies straight. Again.

[Rob.Singer]

If you examine the UNKewl posts, almost EVERY ONE includes some soft whine about how, Pleeeease listen to me, I am not just a male prostitute, I have played BJ for 20 years and supported myself, almost EVERY ONE includes some soft whine about how, Pleeeease listen to me MDawg and R.Singer aren't really beating the casinos, almost EVERY ONE includes some soft whine summary of his ENTIRE boring life story (replete with contradictory lies).

Recently, he posted about how he doesn't understand how or why the founding fathers created the Electoral College, and yet he wants us to believe that he graduated from a private four year college without ever taking the U.S. History that many completed in high school (Adv. Placement US History). This gal is just a mass of contradictions and lies that make it obvious that it's a street raised bum desperate for the attention that his own family denied him when they kicked him out.

FOUR versions of the lie:

1) Never went to college, never got his degree

I didn't have the opportunity to go to college

"I have done fine making money without a college degree."



"I have been pretty open about my education and not having the chance to go to college"



"You haters like to call me uneducated because I didn't have the opportunity to go to college as I had planned. " (And, like the lying chameleon that he is, trying hard to put himself in the company of people who also never graduated college, but did well.)



2) Went to college and graduated

"I graduated college in 2014 and moved to Las Vegas and moved in with my brother. "



3) Went to Villanova but attended only 1 year, no degree

But I did well enough to have been accepted at a private catholic university on Philadelphia's exclusive mainline. I only attended for one year.

4) Went to Villanova attended 3 years, dropped out, got his degree online





Bottom line is this pathological liar can't even keep his lies straight. Again.

We all saw this as it was unfolding.

Do you think kew will ever come here to explain these lies?

He gets caught in these stupid situations all the time. And it is one of the most fun events on the internet

[kewlJ]

Not sure what you people are posting or if you are altering quotes. My brother graduated college in 2014, moved to Las Vegas and moved in with me.

Now he did sometimes post on my account at GF, so maybe he posted that.

I would have been in my 30's in 2014.

[accountinquestion]

I may have to incorporate "soft whine". It is there with nervous poodle which is better than nervous chihuahua if only because I can confidently spell it.

[redietz]

Since I lunch with a bunch of profs, I guess it's my responsibility to point out that Villanova tuition is currently north of 60K a year. But it being a Catholic school, I imagine there is a hefty discount for buggery.

Now you all realize that kewlJ had to lie about where and when he went to college because he knew it would be a giveaway to his real identity. So he picked something high profile near Philly, but never bothered to check on the cost of tuition. All this bullshitting is to protect him from evil doxxers, of course.

Roughly 20% of people who apply gain entrance to Villanova. Again, I'm not sure what factor buggery plays in helping one slide in an academic back door.

I went to college on a National Merit Scholarship, but Villanova was out of the question. Too pricey. Good to know they have greased the admissions for deserving buggers.

Sorry, man, you've been seriously busted on this. Why didn't you pick Temple or something? Temple is about 20K a year. At least semi-believable. I don't get it. Where did you get the quarter million to go to Villanova?

Now understand that I quoted TUITION, not overall cost, which runs north of 85K a year.

You know, I have to admit, it annoys the living hell out of me that someone would nonchalantly claim to be a high school dropout, GED, Villanova student with an annual cost in the 85K range. For someone to claim going to Villanova, which is right in my neck of the woods, disturbs me.

[accountinquestion]

I don't think kewl is getting into a private school that has 20% acceptance. I did like his math based stories and such about his blackjack experiences

[kewlJ]

Since I lunch with a bunch of profs, I guess it's my responsibility to point out that Villanova tuition is currently north of 60K a year. But it being a Catholic school, I imagine there is a hefty discount for buggery.

Of course you did!! Isn't it funny that no matter what the topic, Red is right their knowing, meeting or having lunch with someone in that immediate field?

Red, next time you get together with your professor friends , you might want to ask them about scholarships available to children of federal Employees who were killed on the job. Or even scholarships for children of Federal employees in general.

I was able to attend Villanova due to 3 different scholarships that I qualified for, the biggest because my father was killed while working as a federal employee, when I was very young.

Additionally, My Grandfather is a Villanova alum, pulled some strings and helps out some financially.

You know, I have to admit, it annoys the living hell out of me that someone would nonchalantly claim to be a high school dropout, GED, Villanova student with an annual cost in the 85K range. For someone to claim going to Villanova, which is right in my neck of the woods, disturbs me.

You know what annoys the living hell out of me, Redeitz. When you people make up complete lies, as you have here. That "disturbs" me!

I am not a high school drop out, nor received a GED. I graduated high school with my class. I did spend the last 3 months of high school commuting from the homeless shelter in Daytona to my High School and after school job and back to the shelter, daily after my stepfather kicked me out on my 18th birthday. I am proud I was able to do that for 3 months and graduated with my class and then went on to college. When my name was called, My classmates all rose applauding because everyone in the school and community knew the situation and what I had done to be there that day. So Fuck YOU!

How about you stop repeating Mdawgs lies and talking points and be honest and show some decency for a change. I expected more from you than this.

[smurgerburger]

When I got to the part about everyone standing up and clapping I actually stood up and started clapping too.

[kewlJ]

God I am so sick of this shit from you trolls and haters!

It doesn't make you a big man to be a bully, Rob and Mdawg. It isn't funny to be a complete dick, just because you can AccountinQuestion, jdog, smupherberger.

Everything I have shared about my blackjack career and journey and most personal stuff is completely true. I have had to change a few very minor details to try to protect myself from some haters out to dox and harm me. That is all you freaks have on me.

Everything is true and nothing defies the math and nothing defies the way Las Vegas or the gambling industry works. If someone were to try to emulate what I do (which I never recommend) or even just incorporate some of the techniques and things I do, into their own games and situation, they would benefit, see inprovements and improvements in longevity.

Unlike some other people on this forum like Mdawg that if you tried to emulate or incorportae things he says and claims you will find yourself broke, 86ed from the casino and probably databased. With Singer, anyone stupid enough to try to emulate would just end up broke like he is. Because both these guys know nothing about advantage play or the way Las Vegas and the casino industry works.

Machines telepathing hot and cold cycles, progressive wagering systems, "special plays" and betting into hot streaks and using 1-50 bet spreads at double deck games on the strip for 10 straight hours. GIVE ME A FUCKING BREAK! This shit would be rejected by the voodoo 101 book. It's just stupidity 101!

You guys want to demonize and witchhunt me, because you don't like something else about me. That is all this is. It is all it ever was.

Fuck ya'll!!

[smurgerburger]

Wait KJ...are you saying this is The End?

[Rob.Singer]

Kew's coming apart at the seams again I'm betting what set the lying twit off this time was mdawg posting, in devastating blow-by-blow style, how many different contradictory stories he posted about going to Villanova (haha--like that slug family could afford even 1 semester there) then graduating from Villanova, then dropping out etc. etc. etc. It is as funny as it gets on the internet, and it's solid proof of how much this clown is willing to lie.

Let's HOPE the fairy leaves for good this time.

[accountinquestion]

Kewl, I think it is time I lobby for another break in your posting.