Sports Picks

[Half Smoke]

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gonna make a wimpy bet to show today on the Belmont Stakes (which is being run at Saratoga due to construction at Belmont) on the the morning line favorite - Sierra Leone

he's never finished worse than 2nd - he lost by a nose in the Derby - he always tries hard - and his connections upgraded to one of the top jocks in the country

he's a closer who comes running late

with all of the soft money who usually love the shots I believe the show prices on low odds horses will be better than average - especially since there is no possible Triple Crown winner to attract attention


there will be $ millions bet on on this one race

2014 set a record - $151 million and some change from all sources - they watched California Chrome have his Triple Crown bid spoiled by Tonalist


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[kewlJ]

A couple years ago, I read about a similar but slightly more narrow angle of divisional underdogs that ran well and resulted n a positive result for the entire season.

I haven't followed up to are how that ran out n subsequential seasons. And mlb has gone to fewer divisional game format since.

yes, the link shows that - the guy tracked over 12,000 games and found a 0.6 % edge and a greater edge when limiting the bets to when the totals are higher

but who knows if this will hold up - things change all the time

still might be great for scoring bonuses, boosts, and free play

I'm thinking my couple hundred game tracking is not really enough to prove anything



https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...nal%20opponent.

I am doing really bad with betting baseball. This is my4th "cycle" of sports betting bonus whoring since last September, where it is really all about the bonuses and eating as little as possible away during the rollover, rather than winning out right.

I am trying to focus on a variety of angles discussed, like divisional underdogs, and betting over the 7 and 7.5 run line, and worry less about starting pitchers (who only pitch 5 innings anyway), but have just not been doing well. If things keep going at this rate, I may not make a profit this cycle. And on top of that, I lost one of my 4 off shore sportsbooks who is no longer offering me any decent bonuses.

I have been traveling a lot over the past 3 months and making my picks on the fly. Now home for the summer, I am going to try to really buckle down and salvage what I can from this cycle and probably a second baseball cycle to follow (at least part of a cycle heading into football season).

[Half Smoke]

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when I first started betting sports I had a nice run (luck) and I thought to myself - hey - it's easy to win betting sports
then things changed
now I know - it ain't easy to beat sports - not at all

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[Half Smoke]

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the favorite/longshot bias has been well documented in horse racing -
there are many academic studies of it
the takeout in the win pool averages about 16%
but if you bet on all favorites - in the long run you would lose much less than indicated by the takeout
and if you bet on all longshots you would lose much more than indicated by the takeout

but is this true for sports betting________? - I'm referring to bets on the money line - not on the spread

I dunno - but I don't think so - I've never seen a study of it - googling got me nowhere

why might it be different in sports betting than in racing______?

my best guess is that the longshots in racing are generally much longer and more easily activate the risk love instinct in humans



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Favour...0by%20Griffith.


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[kewlJ]

I think it has to do with the home field/court advantage.

I have always wondered why that should matter so much? It is the same size field, court, ice rink. Baseball some variation, but still the same for both teams. So the big difference is there are some fans rooting against you. Big deal! Seems like a professional athlete should get over that real quickly.

BUT, when you look at home and away records for most teams, it is huge.

And being that most away teams are the underdogs, I think that is the difference.

[Half Smoke]

I think it has to do with the home field/court advantage.

I have always wondered why that should matter so much? It is the same size field, court, ice rink. Baseball some variation, but still the same for both teams. So the big difference is there are some fans rooting against you. Big deal! Seems like a professional athlete should get over that real quickly.

BUT, when you look at home and away records for most teams, it is huge.

And being that most away teams are the underdogs, I think that is the difference.

there are a couple of links that suggest that the home team is overvalued in the betting - but not many

in the link he claims that hfa is vastly overvalued in NFL betting - although I don't recall seeing that claim anywhere else

he states that the hfa is overvalued in college football

and he has a very interesting documentation that shows the road team doing much better in college football when the totals are lower





https://www.sportsinsights.com/blog/...eld-advantage/

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[Half Smoke]

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I almost forgot - Mickey's parlay card thread reminded me

the Wiz tracked thousands of NFL bets and found that all away had a small positive return and all away underdogs also did - not as small - 2.57% - see link

he also shows the away pick having a very large edge - but maybe not enough games to be sure

I think I may have posted this before - but it's worth mentioning again - it's very valuable info

Mike did not find anything like this in his trackings of the NHL and the MLB



https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


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[MDawg]

I think it has to do with

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...-of-the-n-word

[Half Smoke]

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a couple of props offered by DraftKings at this moment

-110 -Keider Montero (Tigers) under 4.5 KOs vs. the Twins - he's been under that in 4 out his last 5 games

- 120 - Gavin Stone (Dodgers) under 17.5 outs vs. Astros - he's had 3 short outings in a row and has been under that in 4 out of his last 5 times out

glta

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[kewlJ]

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a couple of props offered by DraftKings at this moment

-110 -Keider Montero (Tigers) under 4.5 KOs vs. the Twins - he's been under that in 4 out his last 5 games

- 120 - Gavin Stone (Dodgers) under 17.5 outs vs. Astros - he's had 3 short outings in a row and has been under that in 4 out of his last 5 times out

glta

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I am tagging along on both, JUST because you are a good guy. Also because I have some rollover to get through at two books so I can start a new cycle for Football season.

best I could get on Montero was -120. I played. Maybe you wouldn't have even liked it at those odds.

[Half Smoke]

best I could get on Montero was -120. I played. Maybe you wouldn't have even liked it at those odds.

I'm not sharp enough to say that a bet is a good bet at -110 but not at -120 - maybe some are

if 4 out of the last 5 is a good indicator then it's still a very good bet imo - no reason to believe it's not a good indicator - but it might not be - gambling is trying to see the future - it ain't easy ____-

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[kewlJ]

3 innings. 5 ko's. Including striking out the side in the 2nd.

Sometimes you are the windshield, sometimes the bug.

[kewlJ]

Today didn't work out too well Half Smoke. Tomorrow is another day.

[Half Smoke]

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tanked yesterday
new strategy using covers.com (trends click) picking an over or under based on when both teams have significant positive r.o.i. on the over or both have a significant positive r.o.i. on the under for a significant no. of games
yesterday there were 7 picks from this that went 7-0 - I didn't post them - not tryin to brag about stuff I didn't post - just showing reason for hopefulness

today:

reds/rays u 7.5
guardians/phillies u 9
twins/tigers o 7
cubs/royals u 8.5
dodgers/astros u 8.5
nationals/cardinals o 8
yankees/red sox o 9.5
rockies/giants o7.5

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[Half Smoke]

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yesterday's o/u picks went 4-3

not posting the odds - they're not always -110 but I think they average out to be about that

today:

reds/rays u 7.5
guardians/phillies u 9.5
twins/tigers o 8
cubs/royals u 8.5
nationals/cardinals o 8.5
rockies/giants o 7.5
yankees/red sox o 9

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[Half Smoke]

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the MLB o/u strategy that I'm using went 4-3 yesterday and what I've posted is 8-6 - I tracked another 7 games that I didn't post that went 7-0
so, it's a total of 15-6
but I'm not sure it's a winning strategy and I don't wanna keep posting until I'm pretty sure it has value
I'm going to keep tracking until I have done 100 games - a few more weeks
if I believe it truly has value I will report back
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[Half Smoke]

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I'll try on another prop
Cubs over 4.45 runs +105 on DraftKings
they average 4.22 runs per game

the Jays Chris Bassitt got bombed last time out and in his last 5 games he's allowed 22 runs in 26 innings pitched

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[Half Smoke]

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tanked yesterday -
no problem
I'll go with the ole martingale - double up and get ahead
just kidding

Jake Burger - Marlins - over 1.5 hits, runs and rbis - 125 DraftKings

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[Half Smoke]

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NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow


I surmised that the first 2 weeks would be very unpredictable and that unpredictability would favor the underdogs
I have now tracked the first 2 weeks of 11 seasons and the dogs have won just over 57% for about a 9% r.o.i. (pushes not considered)
in the 11 years I tracked the faves have never had a winning year - they did tie one year which caused a slight loss due to the vig
this is related to the Wizard's tracking of thousands of games and showing all underdogs losing only a tiny % and road dogs being slightly profitable - see link
my goal was to improve on that r.o.i. with selectivity
KJ and maybe a couple of others here made $ with this last season when I first posted it

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https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

[kewlJ]

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NFL picks - first 2 weeks - all underdogs ats_______it's that time____the season starts tomorrow

I really like this play and look forward to it again this year. Last year both weeks went 10-6 IIRC and that jump started my good start to my bonus chasing that I was doing. It is an extension of Wizards all NFL underdogs which I believe shows a small positive return for a much larger number of years and sample size, and frankly besides being backed by data for years, this first two weeks of underdogs just makes common sense. ESPECIALLY in this era where many teams don't even play starters very much, some not at all during the 3 preseason games.

Additionally, underdogs have done well the first week or week plus (counting the Ireland game) of the college football season. I don't know what the data shows, but again it just makes sense on several levels.