Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
Here is an angle that may interest you Half Smoke. Sorry for the short notice, but I just learned of it today, while running around to a number if sports books.

Over the last 10 years unders have hit at 55.7% during week 1.
thanks - after the first 2 weeks - Axel pointed this out to me on another forum - I had forgotten about it - another tracking I did

road dogs who got 4 points or less ats - the entire regular season

I tracked 4 seasons - they went 159 - 117_________57.6% winners - pushes not considered
.
I do read the "other" forum, so I did see the comments by you and Axelwolf. These "trends" with a many year track record, ALL work for what I am doing, because I don't need to win at a 54% or 55% to actually win money. I just need to be as close to 50-50 as I can be and the bonuses will be the +EV part. But any trend that continues and comes in at 54% is even better.

Now yesterday, I did run around to the B & M sports books here in Vegas making substantial wagers on the underdogs + points, so that is outside my bonus +EV. I am looking for (hoping for) this first 2 weeks trend to score another win this year.

Missed last night by about an inch, with the final play, so there is "work" to do tonight and this weekend.

I have been betting and watching a lot of baseball this summer working through my bonuses. I gotta say that I am damn glad football is back. Baseball just is not a very exciting sport to watch. Football much more so for me.