I am sure you asked, knowing they were not winning yesterday as in previous years. That is fine, I will answer any way.Originally Posted by redietz
On the under totals for 1week only of season, I will say I am 7-8 with 1 game remaining. Although at 2 sportsbooks I am 7-7-1 with one game remaining. the game in question was the opening game Thursday night won 27-20 by KC. Had totals of 46.5 at most books, but 47 at 2 B & M books.
On the first 2 weeks underdogs plus points, what I call the Half Smoke play, I will say I am 6-8-1 with one game this week and a second weeks games remaining. But again, there was one game Denver +6 that was a push at most of my books, but a loss at 3 (I think, where the line was 5 or 5.5.
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Now 2 additional things I want to mention. 1) overtime games like last night's Detroit/Rams game. When you are getting 3.5 points or more (but less than 6), you are a big favorite to win. If your team wins the coin toss, probably a 90% favorite to win. If your team scores on opening possession, either field goal or TD you will win, and if your team doesn't score, the opponent only needs a FG to end the game, so if they get to the 20 or inside, they will just kick the field goal.
Now if you lose the coin flip, and the opponent doesn't score a td on first possession, you are back to the same scenario. The only real way you can lose is if the opponent wins the coin flip and drives the field and scores a TD ending the game....which happened last night. Yes there are other possibilities like a pick 6 or punt return, but for the most part, coin flip is huge if you are getting 3.5 points.
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Now Red, you are calling these two plays betting trends and dismissing them. Shackleford has data dating something like 17 years showing betting all underdog plus points, in ALL NFL games shows a very small win. Something like 1% or less. Would you call that a trend? 17 years all games? that is thousands of games? What about the data spanning decades that shows 3.5 and 7.5 key numbers. Is that a trend?
These things are data analytics spanning decades and thousands of games. It just so happens the first two weeks, which is part of that same larger underdog plus points data, shows a bigger return in the first two weeks. And I think everyone can figure out why.
Red, you just dismiss the analytic as "trends". You are like so many old dudes, that dismiss something they don't know. Ever heard there is more than one way to skin a cat Red? Anyway, I hope you do well, even though you are openly rooting against others who do things you don't know or understand. I hope you do well enough to pay your taxes this year.
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