Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok)
Baltimore at KC - Under 46.5 -115 (46 -110 ok)
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Lost by 0.5 points.
Today:
Tennessee +174 at Chicago
Seattle -6 -110 vs Denver
Detroit -4.5 -107 vs Rams
Probably firing Jets on Monday too.
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Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.
I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.
Interesting observations RED, only question is your large/small market points. Why is that your thinking and what are your large market teams?Originally Posted by redietzOriginally Posted by Dan Druff
Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.
I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.
Last year I bet the unders on passing yards week 1 for the rookies and split because CJ destroyed the number. This year I passed and missed an opportunity as Nix, Williams and Daniels all went under.
Originally Posted by The BozInteresting observations RED, only question is your large/small market points. Why is that your thinking and what are your large market teams?Originally Posted by redietzOriginally Posted by Dan Druff
Todd, if you had bet Seattle Tues/Wed, it was a -4 some places, so your timing not impeccable here. You should have won this game.
I have this rule about rookie high-profile QBs starting at home for the first time, especially when it's a large market home team versus a small market road team. I don't bet against them. Call it conspiracy theory. Call it smart. Blame it on dumb luck. I don't care. But that Titans/Bears game looked odd, to say the least. Got the home folks all jazzed for the new QB. Probably sell some jerseys today.
Last year I bet the unders on passing yards week 1 for the rookies and split because CJ destroyed the number. This year I passed and missed an opportunity as Nix, Williams and Daniels all went under.
One thing I got dead right was Stroud. Prior to the 2023 draft, when asked who was the best potential NFL QB out of the last couple of years of rookies, I unhesitatingly said Stroud. I have some friends who play high stakes fantasy, and they consult me (in a sometimes comprehensive and detail-oriented fashion). I told them to draft Stroud. It's from watching so much college football. Some QBs are stat mirages; some are not.
None of the rookies are going to burn it up anything like Stroud. Not close. If one of them puts up two-thirds of his numbers, I'll be surprised. Nix can play, especially for a bad team, but he's basically Marcus Mariota 2.
I don't have some formal system, Boz. It's just something I've noticed over the years as a caveat. Basically, it goes something like this. If more people make a lot more money if A happens than if B, then I do my best to not bet B unless absolutely necessary.
1-1-1 on those games
Tennessee blew 17-0 lead, sadly
Seattle was behind at 1H but got ahead 13, then gave up a late TD, and as redietz said, I could have had a better line (though it was 6 for a long time)
Detroit pick was lucky. Down 20-17, they got a final seconds FG, then won flip, then scored TD due to mostly short rushes.
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I was going to bet Jets but dragged, and now McCaffery is officially out. Line dropped. Still like it.
Jets +158 at SF
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8 scoring drives for SF, yea that wasn’t good for the Jets. But at least Chrissy Mitchell was there to enjoy the game.Originally Posted by Dan Druff
Seattle -3 -110 at New England
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Philadelphia vs Atlanta - Under 45.5 -105
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Cleveland vs Giants - Under 38.5 -110
Carolina +215 at Vegas
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.
nice picks Dan - 3 wins in a row
actually equal to a little more than 4 in a row ats in terms of dollars won due to your gutsy pick on the Panthers
maybe a crushing year for you like you've had in the past
.
Last edited by Half Smoke; Today at 04:05 AM.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
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