Sports Picks

[kewlJ]

Here is an angle that may interest you Half Smoke. Sorry for the short notice, but I just learned of it today, while running around to a number if sports books.

Over the last 10 years unders have hit at 55.7% during week 1.

[Half Smoke]

Here is an angle that may interest you Half Smoke. Sorry for the short notice, but I just learned of it today, while running around to a number if sports books.

Over the last 10 years unders have hit at 55.7% during week 1.

thanks - after the first 2 weeks - Axel pointed this out to me on another forum - I had forgotten about it - another tracking I did

road dogs who got 4 points or less ats - the entire regular season

I tracked 4 seasons - they went 159 - 117_________57.6% winners - pushes not considered



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[kewlJ]

Here is an angle that may interest you Half Smoke. Sorry for the short notice, but I just learned of it today, while running around to a number if sports books.

Over the last 10 years unders have hit at 55.7% during week 1.

thanks - after the first 2 weeks - Axel pointed this out to me on another forum - I had forgotten about it - another tracking I did

road dogs who got 4 points or less ats - the entire regular season

I tracked 4 seasons - they went 159 - 117_________57.6% winners - pushes not considered
.

I do read the "other" forum, so I did see the comments by you and Axelwolf. These "trends" with a many year track record, ALL work for what I am doing, because I don't need to win at a 54% or 55% to actually win money. I just need to be as close to 50-50 as I can be and the bonuses will be the +EV part. But any trend that continues and comes in at 54% is even better.

Now yesterday, I did run around to the B & M sports books here in Vegas making substantial wagers on the underdogs + points, so that is outside my bonus +EV. I am looking for (hoping for) this first 2 weeks trend to score another win this year.

Missed last night by about an inch, with the final play, so there is "work" to do tonight and this weekend.

I have been betting and watching a lot of baseball this summer working through my bonuses. I gotta say that I am damn glad football is back. Baseball just is not a very exciting sport to watch. Football much more so for me.

[MDawg]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

[redietz]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

Despite my lectures regarding avoiding parlays at all costs, I played a longshot parlay today. I parlayed "blackjack player coming back from the dead" with "anonymous online blackjack player turns to sports betting when blackjack in LV dries up" with "newbie sports bettor knows more about bonuses than Axelwolf and that Dietz guy." I was informed that my sawbuck will return 3.2 billion dollars, which means I'll be partners with Elon Musk by the end of the day. Don't be shy, MDawg. Grab onto my coattails and meet Mr. Musk next week.

[kewlJ]

Despite my lectures regarding avoiding parlays at all costs, I played a longshot parlay today. I parlayed "blackjack player coming back from the dead" with "anonymous online blackjack player turns to sports betting when blackjack in LV dries up" with "newbie sports bettor knows more about bonuses than Axelwolf and that Dietz guy." I was informed that my sawbuck will return 3.2 billion dollars, which means I'll be partners with Elon Musk by the end of the day. Don't be shy, MDawg. Grab onto my coattails and meet Mr. Musk next week.

See ReDICK, this is where you prove what an asshole you are. Nowhere did I ever say or even hint that I know more than you or Axelwolf. That kind of pissing contest shit is not important to me. But apparently is to you.

What I said was last September when I started my sports betting via bonus whoring, I was able to negotiate some pretty good bonuses and rollovers, based on several years of losing sports betting. Good bonuses with low rollovers. And I have continued to get good bonuses and rollovers throughout the last year, 3-4 cycles, except 1 location that stopped the really low rollovers.

It always comes back to that YOU just can't accept that there are people doing things with an advantage in sports betting that are different than what you do or preach. Mickey crimm has more than proved that there are many doing things and winning differently than you. So you ust play you little contests like it is the 1980, and continue to be in denial (and jealous) of opportunities around in the year 2024, that AP's and players are taking advantage of.

But by all means join Mdawg in trolling. I guess that is who YOU are now. You people can't help show your true colors. It is no wonder that fewer and fewer member post here any more. If you are NOT trolling this is NOT the forum for anyone.

[MDawg]

At this point anyone who thinks FraudJ represents anything truthfully or factually correct is a fool.....RIP

[The Boz]

Despite my lectures regarding avoiding parlays at all costs, I played a longshot parlay today. I parlayed "blackjack player coming back from the dead" with "anonymous online blackjack player turns to sports betting when blackjack in LV dries up" with "newbie sports bettor knows more about bonuses than Axelwolf and that Dietz guy." I was informed that my sawbuck will return 3.2 billion dollars, which means I'll be partners with Elon Musk by the end of the day. Don't be shy, MDawg. Grab onto my coattails and meet Mr. Musk next week.

See ReDICK, this is where you prove what an asshole you are. Nowhere did I ever say or even hint that I know more than you or Axelwolf. That kind of pissing contest shit is not important to me. But apparently is to you.

What I said was last September when I started my sports betting via bonus whoring, I was able to negotiate some pretty good bonuses and rollovers, based on several years of losing sports betting. Good bonuses with low rollovers. And I have continued to get good bonuses and rollovers throughout the last year, 3-4 cycles, except 1 location that stopped the really low rollovers.

It always comes back to that YOU just can't accept that there are people doing things with an advantage in sports betting that are different than what you do or preach. Mickey crimm has more than proved that there are many doing things and winning differently than you. So you ust play you little contests like it is the 1980, and continue to be in denial (and jealous) of opportunities around in the year 2024, that AP's and players are taking advantage of.

But by all means join Mdawg in trolling. I guess that is who YOU are now. You people can't help show your true colors. It is no wonder that fewer and fewer member post here any more. If you are NOT trolling this is NOT the forum for anyone.

Legit question and not taking sides. But why the hell are you running all over town making -EV wagers when there isn’t a line in Vegas you can’t find offshore with a little research? And even if the bonuses dried up some, they are still a better opportunity than in a book. This entire change from bonus whoring which I (unlike RED) support and know is possible to make money pursuing by you has me confused.

Then when you say how many games you bet on a “trend”, that has -EV written all over it. I’m missing something that isn’t adding up from an AP.

[kewlJ]

I disagree that it has -EV written all over it. This "trend" is backed by more than a decade of strong positive results. It may show a loss this year after 11 straight years, but I don't believe it is -EV.

Once I decided that I wanted to put large money (for me) on these first two weeks, I didn't want that kind of money in the offshore books that I deal with. It was an amount I felt comfortable with having in the offshore books. So I placed my normal bets in the offshore, but put the additional amounts in B & M sportsbooks. That way I can cash the next day and have my money back without waiting for rollovers and all that.

I haven't talked to him about it, but I believe from reading WoV, Axelwolf did the exact same thing. He wanted to put significant money on this play that you guys are calling a trend, but didn't want to risk doing so with the online books, of which he deals with more than me. He wanted it separate. Wasn't co-ordinated, but we thought exactly the same on this one.

[MDawg]

Legit question and not taking sides. But why the hell are you running all over town making -EV wagers when there isn’t a line in Vegas you can’t find offshore with a little research? And even if the bonuses dried up some, they are still a better opportunity than in a book. This entire change from bonus whoring which I (unlike RED) support and know is possible to make money pursuing by you has me confused.

Then when you say how many games you bet on a “trend”, that has -EV written all over it. I’m missing something that isn’t adding up from an AP.

(1) She can't create fables for something which she hasn't "studied up" on - things it wouldn't occur to someone who is homeless with limited internet access to do. The concept of multiple bank accounts is alien to her, she's the "money in the mattress" type.

(2) UNKewlJ is new to spouting nonsense about sports betting which is why her stories don't add up whatsoever, yet. Takes her decades to wear a fable smooth enough to begin to pass the smell test. Just look at how miserably her backrooming or slots winning whoppers failed. She gave up on those now trying to seem like she's doing something else.

[MDawg]

UNKewlJ wants us to think that she's other than

some frail, small, timid gay boy

, when, that's precisely what she is.

A lot has been said about you. I find it telling that you only focus on a few things. Especially the male prostitute thing. I am inclined to believe the things you focus in on refuting are the one's that hit closest to home.

Point being that whatever UNKewlJ spends the most time on trying to refute, is what amounts to the biggest whoppers of them all.

The truth is … UNKewlJ hasn’t spent 20 years playing blackjack. He’s spent 20 years trying to convince people that he’s been playing blackjack.

[AxelWolf]

I do think it IS +EV, however, it's not a guarantee since rules, data, people, technology, etc change.

I normally dont like trend betting because you can always find anomalies that dont = +EV, I like this because the logic makes sense.
We know that just taking the dogs in NFL period is better than the favorites.

FYI I still have all but a few tickets(I cashed a few) and a picture along with a regulated sports app with my betting history.

[Half Smoke]

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this is pretty interesting - to me anyway
AI predictions for the scores of this Sunday and Monday's NFL games
I'm going to track this on the o/u and also ats
my prediction - their picks are worthless - but I could be wrong
of course, not really enough games to know for sure


https://www.oddstrader.com/nfl/picks/

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[Half Smoke]

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the AI picks tanked so far - see one post up
I tracked them at 10-15
no more tracking of this for me
I'm not a believer

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[Half Smoke]

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an early under pick for week 4
Commanders/Cardinals u 49.5_________the highest total for the week
Commanders are averaging 20.5 - Cardinals 27.3
but the Cardinals only scored 13 yesterday -

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