Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Also, the scale of "APing" is, and always has been with the exception of the occasional Phil Ivey and such, relatively pitiful compared to the consistent amounts of money involved with sports betting. So for the "APs" to consider themselves on some kind of financial par with the highest level sports bettors is, again, incredibly arrogant.

Yep, big money being bet on sports. The biggest compulsive gamblers in the world are sports bettors. What kind of expertise do THEY have, ditz? Yeah, I know. Not all are compulsive. I've featured a lot of professional sports bettors in this thread. You are curiously uncurious about them. You just don't know much about your own world. It's like you are hiding from any kind of real publicity about what you do. Hiding from any scrutiny that real professional gamblers may give you.

Yeah, sure. You can brag yourself up to those of us on this forum. But you are hiding from making yourself known to current high level professional sports bettors. Why? Afraid of the scrutiny?

And this "So for the AP's to consider themselves on some kind of par with the highest level sports bettors is, again, incredibly arrogant" is another of your false allegations. No AP in this forum has ever said anything like that. But one thing we do know. You are not on their level either.

[mickeycrimm]

LOL. I saw this coming for years. it's not the "APs" shifting to sports betting that's an issue. It's their Johhny Come Lately Look At Us We know What We're Doing....when you really do not.

Those books you hit up for bonuses -- kewlj, I had accounts there for many years, doing what you are doing, plus knowing what I'm doing. So now someone like you comes along, thinking you're fucking Magellan. It's comical.

What exactly do you think you can do that I don't do? And that I haven't done for decades?

Ask Dan. He tried to open an account at Heritage and was rebuffed. I have had an account there for many years. Do you know why I was allowed to have an account (past tense -- they are more public now; Dan could have an account)?

Hint: It's not because I lose money. It's because people want access to expertise and the opinions of that expertise.

You guys are like children. You think some freshman probability math and juggling multiple accounts makes you on a level with expert handicappers. It's comical.

Do you have any idea how much money and expertise has been brought to bear to conquer individual sports? How many programmers? How many programs running 24/7 for years to cull the information? Organize it. Search for correlations and weaknesses?

And you think some math lesson from Wizard of Odds is going to conquer sports betting? Not just one specific sport, mind you, but all sports betting? The naivete is unbelievable. On par with the arrogance.

If you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.

[redietz]

LOL. I saw this coming for years. it's not the "APs" shifting to sports betting that's an issue. It's their Johhny Come Lately Look At Us We know What We're Doing....when you really do not.

Those books you hit up for bonuses -- kewlj, I had accounts there for many years, doing what you are doing, plus knowing what I'm doing. So now someone like you comes along, thinking you're fucking Magellan. It's comical.

What exactly do you think you can do that I don't do? And that I haven't done for decades?

Ask Dan. He tried to open an account at Heritage and was rebuffed. I have had an account there for many years. Do you know why I was allowed to have an account (past tense -- they are more public now; Dan could have an account)?

Hint: It's not because I lose money. It's because people want access to expertise and the opinions of that expertise.

You guys are like children. You think some freshman probability math and juggling multiple accounts makes you on a level with expert handicappers. It's comical.

Do you have any idea how much money and expertise has been brought to bear to conquer individual sports? How many programmers? How many programs running 24/7 for years to cull the information? Organize it. Search for correlations and weaknesses?

And you think some math lesson from Wizard of Odds is going to conquer sports betting? Not just one specific sport, mind you, but all sports betting? The naivete is unbelievable. On par with the arrogance.

If you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.

There's a quote for the ages.

[mickeycrimm]

LOL. I saw this coming for years. it's not the "APs" shifting to sports betting that's an issue. It's their Johhny Come Lately Look At Us We know What We're Doing....when you really do not.

Those books you hit up for bonuses -- kewlj, I had accounts there for many years, doing what you are doing, plus knowing what I'm doing. So now someone like you comes along, thinking you're fucking Magellan. It's comical.

What exactly do you think you can do that I don't do? And that I haven't done for decades?

Ask Dan. He tried to open an account at Heritage and was rebuffed. I have had an account there for many years. Do you know why I was allowed to have an account (past tense -- they are more public now; Dan could have an account)?

Hint: It's not because I lose money. It's because people want access to expertise and the opinions of that expertise.

You guys are like children. You think some freshman probability math and juggling multiple accounts makes you on a level with expert handicappers. It's comical.

Do you have any idea how much money and expertise has been brought to bear to conquer individual sports? How many programmers? How many programs running 24/7 for years to cull the information? Organize it. Search for correlations and weaknesses?

And you think some math lesson from Wizard of Odds is going to conquer sports betting? Not just one specific sport, mind you, but all sports betting? The naivete is unbelievable. On par with the arrogance.

If you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.

There's a quote for the ages.

Mention it on Life is a Gamble. Have you contacted Munchkin yet?

[mickeycrimm]

If you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.

There's a quote for the ages.

Redietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.

What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.

This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.

The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.

Let's see if YOU can solve it.

[redietz]

If you look at the mathematics (probability theory) of poker, sports betting, video poker, slots, keno, blackjack....the sports betting math is by far the simplest and easiest to learn.

There's a quote for the ages.

Redietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.

What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.

This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.

The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.

Let's see if YOU can solve it.

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

[AxelWolf]

Oddsmaker is really onerous with their rollover, but the initial bonus is cash and it's huge, along with a casino chunk.

Are the generous rollover terms negotiated or in general? I have them down as a 20x D+B

I consider a 150% cash bonus with an 8x roll to be generous.

[AxelWolf]

Sports betting is NOT the Top Dog of Advantage Play. It pales in comparison to horses.

[kewlJ]

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

You are trying to cut mickey a break? You who basically accused him of being on welfare because he collects Social Security (which he earned and is entitled to) and have NEVER apologized for it?

Isn't there a saying "Those that can...do. Those that can't...teach". Think about THAT next time you have the desire to drop names and occupations, which you frequently do.

[redietz]

Oddsmaker is really onerous with their rollover, but the initial bonus is cash and it's huge, along with a casino chunk.

Are the generous rollover terms negotiated or in general? I have them down as a 20x D+B

I consider a 150% cash bonus with an 8x roll to be generous.

That sounds right. And I agree with the 8X also. I haven't fired a lot there recently. I should mention this -- I tortured them with some futures wagers the last five years or so, and they put the clamps on my futures betting, so I really don't wager much there unless I have a specific reason. I have no real complaints, and I have no idea if they put a low ceiling on futures risks for everyone, but I doubt other people have my low limits for these things. They overreacted. None of my wins was much more than 10K or maybe 15K at the outside.

The only negative I have to mention is occasionally they run a promo that requires you to go broke to use. For example, if you participate in their "Survivor" betting bonus, you get a free $250 if you wager a hundred bucks every week of the NFL season. Just one catch -- LOL. You've gotta have zero in the account to collect it.

[redietz]

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

You are trying to cut mickey a break? You who basically accused him of being on welfare because he collects Social Security (which he earned and is entitled to) and have NEVER apologized for it?

Isn't there a saying "Those that can...do. Those that can't...teach". Think about THAT next time you have the desire to drop names and occupations, which you frequently do.

KewlJ, I am cutting him a break. Everybody makes some obvious error in logic sometime. I respect him enough to privately explain the glitch without going into some histrionic hissy fit that's the purview of certain allegedly gay, allegedly blackjack-playing adolescents who spend waaaayyy too much time trying to convince forums that (1) they are one person and (2) they are professional gamblers. You are the first letters-on-a-page that I believe really does need "they" as a pronoun.

[kewlJ]

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

You are trying to cut mickey a break? You who basically accused him of being on welfare because he collects Social Security (which he earned and is entitled to) and have NEVER apologized for it?

Isn't there a saying "Those that can...do. Those that can't...teach". Think about THAT next time you have the desire to drop names and occupations, which you frequently do.

KewlJ, I am cutting him a break. Everybody makes some obvious error in logic sometime. I respect him enough to privately explain the glitch without going into some histrionic hissy fit that's the purview of certain allegedly gay, allegedly blackjack-playing adolescents who spend waaaayyy too much time trying to convince forums that (1) they are one person and (2) they are professional gamblers. You are the first letters-on-a-page that I believe really does need "they" as a pronoun.

You really are a dick!

I am an adolescent? I started posting on forums in 2006 or 2007. Will have to look on another forum to check. That was 17/18 years ago. If I wqas 3 them I would still be in my 20's making your statement false. But I wasn't 3 then, I was in my mid 20's then. This is the kind of stupid shit you say and frankly it is right up there with the stupid shit Mdawg says and Singer said for years. What happened to you dude? Seriously?

My brother is also a successful card counter/AP. Hard to believe, but I think he is coming up on 10 years now. (maybe 9). And yes, he read some of this and GF and had an interest for a little while of posting. We inquired at both forums and there was no way for him to do so, other than on my account. So he did for a little while. I wasn't thrilled with that arrangement. And then he lost interest and hasn't for quite a while. Anyone with half a brains should have been able to tell when he posted. We have very different styles. If you have a problem that he used to post on my account, you should take it up with Dan Druff, because we asked if there was any other way, like him creating his own account and were told no.

[mickeycrimm]

There's a quote for the ages.

Redietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.

What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.

This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.

The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.

Let's see if YOU can solve it.

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

What redietz is really saying here is he can't do the keno math problem so he is going offense and telling me I have flawed mathematical reasoning. That dog won't hunt, ditz.

Redietz, you have never shown any aptitude in math on this forum. When it comes to gambling math you are primordial ooze, not even a salamander. You can't solve the keno problem that takes only a few minutes if you know what you are doing. And you really need to get over the name dropping. You think you know something because you have a friend with a degree? He might know the shit, because he studied it, but you don't know fuckall about it. To start with gambling math is easy. And sportsbetting math is the easiest of all.

If you want to speculate that my math is flawed then do it publicly. Right here in this thread. Not behind closed doors. But you can't do that because you will get exposed to the public for not knowing fuckall about gambling math.

Trying to cut me a break? HAHAHAHA!!! You're an imbecile.

[AxelWolf]

Oddsmaker is really onerous with their rollover, but the initial bonus is cash and it's huge, along with a casino chunk.

Are the generous rollover terms negotiated or in general? I have them down as a 20x D+B

I consider a 150% cash bonus with an 8x roll to be generous.

That sounds right. And I agree with the 8X also. I haven't fired a lot there recently. I should mention this -- I tortured them with some futures wagers the last five years or so, and they put the clamps on my futures betting, so I really don't wager much there unless I have a specific reason. I have no real complaints, and I have no idea if they put a low ceiling on futures risks for everyone, but I doubt other people have my low limits for these things. They overreacted. None of my wins was much more than 10K or maybe 15K at the outside.

The only negative I have to mention is occasionally they run a promo that requires you to go broke to use. For example, if you participate in their "Survivor" betting bonus, you get a free $250 if you wager a hundred bucks every week of the NFL season. Just one catch -- LOL. You've gotta have zero in the account to collect it.

I don't know much about betting futures regarding the math and logic behind them in relationship to the +EV aspect, I leave that to the experts. I'm seeking high return low risk "investments" The lowest percentage bets I made was betting 2k on haflsmoke first 2 week method.

Regarding the 150% with 8x I'm only finding that stuff on bigger deposits at lesser known places. So there's a chance of getting screwed.

I have been getting limited to $50/$100 on a few places but that's an easy problem to solve.
Another problem is getting redeposit bonuses after cashing out profits. I don't like accounts getting up to 30k+ no matter how reputable they are.
That problem is solvable but it's a pain in the ass..

[AxelWolf]

Redietz. You are playing a keno 7-spot with one way of 3 and one way of 4. For instance, in the 3-spot you are playing the numbers, 1, 2, 3. In the 4-spot you are playing 4,5,6,7.

What is the probability that you will catch all three numbers in the 3-spot and at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot?
When I say "at least 2 numbers in the 4-spot" I mean you can catch either all 4 numbers, or 3 out of 4 numbers, of 2 out of 4 numbers.

This is a typical problem I had to solve on a keno progressive I found 17 years ago and worked for years. I had to hit all 3 in the 3 spot and at least 2 of 4 in the 4-spot to be awarded the meter.

The payscale, not including the meter, was 88%. I had to know the cost of spinning the play off to make sure the meter was higher than the average cost.

Let's see if YOU can solve it.

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

What redietz is really saying here is he can't do the keno math problem so he is going offense and telling me I have flawed mathematical reasoning. That dog won't hunt, ditz.

Redietz, you have never shown any aptitude in math on this forum. When it comes to gambling math you are primordial ooze, not even a salamander. You can't solve the keno problem that takes only a few minutes if you know what you are doing. And you really need to get over the name dropping. You think you know something because you have a friend with a degree? He might know the shit, because he studied it, but you don't know fuckall about it. To start with gambling math is easy. And sportsbetting math is the easiest of all.

If you want to speculate that my math is flawed then do it publicly. Right here in this thread. Not behind closed doors. But you can't do that because you will get exposed to the public for not knowing fuckall about gambling math.

Trying to cut me a break? HAHAHAHA!!! You're an imbecile.

I just use a program as I can't do keno math very well. I don't think one being able to do the math is the most important part of AP.

I know guys that are super good at math and get the general ABC of AP, but they really haven't any clue when, where or how to apply that math to best exploit opportunities.

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey, I'm trying to cut you a break here, believe it or not. I do respect you, but sometimes you do not see the forest for the trees. You do realize I hang out with people who taught probability in college, right? And not as adjuncts -- LOL (dig at Shackleford). And a guy who got a perfect SAT math score, also. Do you really want me to point out the basic, egregious flaw in your mathematical reasoning?

PM me and I'll get to it the next day or two and explain the issue. You don't want to get on a radio show and say this stuff; you'll sound less than stellar.

What redietz is really saying here is he can't do the keno math problem so he is going offense and telling me I have flawed mathematical reasoning. That dog won't hunt, ditz.

Redietz, you have never shown any aptitude in math on this forum. When it comes to gambling math you are primordial ooze, not even a salamander. You can't solve the keno problem that takes only a few minutes if you know what you are doing. And you really need to get over the name dropping. You think you know something because you have a friend with a degree? He might know the shit, because he studied it, but you don't know fuckall about it. To start with gambling math is easy. And sportsbetting math is the easiest of all.

If you want to speculate that my math is flawed then do it publicly. Right here in this thread. Not behind closed doors. But you can't do that because you will get exposed to the public for not knowing fuckall about gambling math.

Trying to cut me a break? HAHAHAHA!!! You're an imbecile.

I just use a program as I can't do keno math very well. I don't think one being able to do the math is the most important part of AP.

I know guys that are super good at math and get the general ABC of AP, but they really haven't any clue when, where or how to apply that math to best exploit opportunities.

The keno problem I put up was designed so redietz, or anyone else, couldn't just go to the wizard's keno calculator and get the answer. I don't know of any program that can do the problem I used. There might be one but I haven't found it.

If I asked what the frequency of hitting a solid 7-spot you could easily get the answer on wizzes keno calculator, 40979.3. Same thing for the frequency of a 4 spot, 326.4, or 3 of 4, 23.12, or 2 of 4, 4.7.

But by making it a 7-spot with one way of 4 and one way of 3 , and you have to hit numbers in 4-spot and 3-spot at the same time, it complicates it so no one can't just go to the keno calculator and get the answer. Can you point to a program that can solve this particular keno math problem? I don't know of one.

BTW, the answer to the keno problem is 342.

I don't get that about how the math isn't the most important. How can you know the math but not know how to apply it? I do the math so I can apply it. There's no other reason to do it. For years now, still to this day, I have plays that no other AP works. Because I know the math and they don't. They have no clue it's a play.

[mickeycrimm]

For those who might be wondering how well Druff does on NBA betting here's some stats for the 2023-2024 season:

Druff was pretty much betting only over/unders. He started out the season betting exclusively overs because he thought the books were making the numbers to low. But by mid-season he was betting both unders and overs.

His record was 41-32.

He made only 4 sides bets and lost them all.

So far this season he's 4-3 on over/under, 5-3 against the spread, and 1-3 on the money line.

[kewlJ]

Totals run in streaks. Some make sense like baseball and more runs in the hotter month's. Weather can also come into play with football. Not as clear to me why such trends occur with basketball other than maybe players becoming more familiar with one another.

For whatever reason, just after the all star game there was a period where overs were hitting strong last NBA season and Druff identified this pretty quickly and had a good run, IIRC.

[kewlJ]

Mickey wasn't there some sport in the last year or two, I don't remember what, maybe college basketball, where Druff made a handful of picks, maybe 5 or 6 and went like 1-5 and then quickly pulled the plug saying something like "this isn't my sport". I found that interesting. And smart.

[coach belly]

I am an adolescent? I started posting on forums in 2006 or 2007. If I was 3 then I would still be in my 20's making your statement false.

You are incorrect, cum breath...the ditz has you pegged...which you likely both enjoy.

Adolescence is the process of developing from a child into an adult.

Adolescence begins with the onset of physiologically normal puberty, and ends when an adult identity and behavior are accepted. This period of development is usually associated with the teenage years, but its physical, psychological or cultural expressions may begin earlier or end later.