Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
I find this EV discussion regarding sports betting very interesting. I am a very novice sports better, especially trying to play with an advantage so I don't profess to know the answer. But I gotta say, I agree somewhat with redietz. Although I don't know why he can't be involved in the discussion and make his points without being so arrogant. And then he has the freaking nerve to call the APs the arrogant ones.

With other things I do at an advantage, like card counting and even the machine/mailer game my partner and I played for years, you can point right to what makes the play at an advantage. And once you have that advantage, EV is just a formula. Advantage x amount wagered = expected value or EV.

No with the bonus stuff I have done with sports betting for the last year, you can also point right to the advantage, and subtracting rollover from bonus, calculate the expected win or expected value. Easy peasy.

But with non bonus type sports betting, I don't know where the EV comes from or how to calculate it. Suppose you are doing something like betting against the public or betting with sharp picks, or doing something with line movements (not involving middling). Where is the EV and how do you calculate it? A lot of that seems based on past trends and I don't think that works as EV.

Take the little first two weeks NFL underdog play that Axelwolf and myself have played in recent years. You are talking 15 games a week for 2 weeks or 30 games a year with data from 10-12 years. That isn't enough data to say that is a +EV play is it? In blackjack we use not just a million or two but 10s or 100s of millions of simulation size to have any real meaning. So 300-360 games worth of data can't really mean anything as far as definitively declaring something +EV. Not in my mind.

I will let you guys fight it out and Red keep weighing in with his very nasty arrogant posts, but so far I just don't see that the term EV translates all that well into sports betting, with the exception of something like the bonus play where you can point right to the advantage and then calculate EV.
it speaks for itself you're the only one who agrees with Redietz.

Just so help you out - No one is disagreeing that EV is not estimated in some capacity. It is just IMPLIED.

It bothers Redietz because his sports betting was never that sophisticated in an analytical sense. It is all "Charlie's cousin ran the 100 M dash to Ken State therefore Jeremy K is a darkhorse running back". Or whatever the fuck.

I don't have a hard time believing Redietz beats the public in coin flipping contests. The problem is without a concept of EV you never know when to bet and when not to bet. You might say "OH this is the best bet" and it might very well have the best EV out of what you're analyzing. You won't be able to go down the list and know when there is no longer value without the concept of EV.

There is no fight to be had with Redietz. We're just loling at him.