Professional Sportsbetting

[Don Perignom]

Confirmation bias of course as I dont really notice when the opposite is happening.

Accurate.

I'm just a little put off by the complexity, wait times, and bid-ask spreads. Convenience wise, it's a step down from stock trading where the transactions are instant and commissions are free.

[Tasha]

Who knew that an obscure, previously unknown ping pong player would be a ticket out of the ghetto?

Today ping pong...tomrorrow, the world!

I don't live in the Ghetto. I live in the Middle Class Suburbs of North Miami. Please stop with the racist posts and racist implications.

[MisterV]

I don't live in the Ghetto. I live in the Middle Class Suburbs of North Miami. Please stop with the racist posts and racist implications.

Don't tell me what to do, missy...as if...

[Tasha]

I don't live in the Ghetto. I live in the Middle Class Suburbs of North Miami. Please stop with the racist posts and racist implications.

Don't tell me what to do, missy...as if...

I'm asking you POLITELY to stop with the racist posts and racist implications.

[pinchingyourballs]

Miami is a sprawling ghetto for all races and colors. Mr. V's post is not racist, it is classist. What you meant to write was, "Please stop with the classist insults."

[Half Smoke]

.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right

I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here

it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy

would like to hear other opinions about this

.

[accountinquestion]

.
several websites are offering AI picks on sports bets - and I believe the picks are free at most of the sites - they priced them right

I don't believe AI picks can beat the lines in the long run for many different reasons - I don't wanna list all of them here

it would just be so easy to go to some sites and get some winning picks - but in reality beating the lines is never easy

would like to hear other opinions about this

.

Take this with a grain of salt.

Much like the horse racing syndicates that started winning - they used extra data. (higher granularity timings)

AI can have an edge depending on the data it is fed and the algorithm. Honestly with enough data and a big team of the right engineers AI could definitely win.

I mean data like - how each individual member performs. Not on a basic stat average/tally but other things. Speeds here to there. It is possible it could be extracted off of video some day.

Is this sort of data available? I haven't begin to have a clue. Will it be available? I don't know either.

Then of course you can just make up some bullshit off existing sharp lines and call it AI. AI could literally be anything. It is far more likely you have this than that. Any real AI model that could beat lines would not have a cheap subscription model. Or at least I wouldn't think.

[Half Smoke]

Much like the horse racing syndicates that started winning - they used extra data. (higher granularity timings)

I was very much into racing for quite a while - luckily my losses were smallish
I'm not aware of any syndicates that beat racing - I would like to see a link re that
there is a gigantic takeout of about 17 to about 30% depending on the type of bet - the tracks really tighten the screws on the exotic bets

the only person I ever knew who I believed beat racing was Andrew Beyer - he did it for several years and he has written some great books on the subject

but the last I read from him - he believed it had become impossible because of shrinking fields due to the poor economic performance of the sport

I am sure there are some others that beat racing while Beyer was doing it - but now - I tend to doubt it

.

[Half Smoke]

.
if an AI site is believed to be very sharp the line setters will use it too
and the bettors still have to pay the vig

[accountinquestion]

Much like the horse racing syndicates that started winning - they used extra data. (higher granularity timings)

I was very much into racing for quite a while - luckily my losses were smallish
I'm not aware of any syndicates that beat racing - I would like to see a link re that
there is a gigantic takeout of about 17 to about 30% depending on the type of bet - the tracks really tighten the screws on the exotic bets

the only person I ever knew who I believed beat racing was Andrew Beyer - he did it for several years and he has written some great books on the subject

but the last I read from him - he believed it had become impossible because of shrinking fields due to the poor economic performance of the sport

I am sure there are some others that beat racing while Beyer was doing it - but now - I tend to doubt it

.

I was thinking about Hong Kong and bill benter.

[kewlJ]

the only person I ever knew who I believed beat racing was Andrew Beyer - he did it for several years and he has written some great books on the subject

but the last I read from him - he believed it had become impossible because of shrinking fields due to the poor economic performance of the sport

.

As a kid and into my teen years, I would spend a day at the track with my Grandfather, several times a year when I visited them. It was mostly Phila Park (now Parx casino) or Penn National, which was a little further away, but they ran at night after my Grandfather was done working. So my great horseracing period was in my teens, when I became interested and reading on the subject, looking for an advantage, which I never found.

But that reading included a book By Andrew Beyer, not about his speed ratings, which I am aware of, but this was an earlier work entitled "My $50,000 year at the track" (I think it was written in the 70's so $50k would have been much more back then). So in the book, Beyers ran the Maryland circuit of 3 racetracks, Laurel, Pimlico, and Timonium. But his 50k won occurred at only one track, one year, I believe it was Laural but don't hold me to it as it may have been Pimlico.

So Beyers was able to win (50K) that year, not by speed ratings, or handicapping, but just by identifying a track bias, very early on before anyone else did. The bias was that the inside rail, coming down the stretch was a harder surface than the rest of the track. That didn't mean that the #1 or #2 horse had the advantage, but whatever horse got to the top of the stretch first and settled on the rail. It could very well be an outside horse, which is why it wasn't identified by everyone so quickly. It also didn't mean that whoever got to the stretch in the lead won every race. Sometimes a horse was just out of gas, or overmatched and couldn't hang on even with that advantage. But it meant that all things being equal, the horse that got to the top of the stretch and settled into the rail had an advantage. You saw much less of horses running that inside front horse down.

So Beyers just needed to handicap the race from the start to the top of the stretch rather than the finish line. And this bias lasted months and he cleaned up. Eventually this bias became known and the track tried to correct it, to the point that they over-corrected it and Beyers quickly identified that too. And THAT was how he won 50k at the track that year. It was a fun read.

[MDawg]

The Gossage—Vardebedian Papers


Two people pretending to place sports bets, both cheating.

[MDawg]

was kicked out of his familial home for being an irritant

Keep in mind what we're dealing with here...someone uneducated, already an outsider because of his (sometimes) claim (which who knows if even that is true?) of being gay, booted out of his own household by his own family at a young age, of course he wants to be something he's not, he's been a downtrodden outsider all his life.

[mickeycrimm]

Much like the horse racing syndicates that started winning - they used extra data. (higher granularity timings)

I was very much into racing for quite a while - luckily my losses were smallish
I'm not aware of any syndicates that beat racing - I would like to see a link re that
there is a gigantic takeout of about 17 to about 30% depending on the type of bet - the tracks really tighten the screws on the exotic bets

the only person I ever knew who I believed beat racing was Andrew Beyer - he did it for several years and he has written some great books on the subject

but the last I read from him - he believed it had become impossible because of shrinking fields due to the poor economic performance of the sport

I am sure there are some others that beat racing while Beyer was doing it - but now - I tend to doubt it

.

Bill Benter made a billion dollars betting horses. Here’s his wiki. Google and you will find articles on how he did it.

HTTPS://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Benter.

[mickeycrimm]

Here’s another guy that made hundreds of millions betting horses

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeljko_Ranogajec

[AxelWolf]

Here’s another guy that made hundreds of millions betting horses

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeljko_Ranogajec

I said it before, I will say it again...

The ability to AP horses dwarf all other forms of Advantage Play.

One the flip side, it's also the most degenerate form of gambling.

[Half Smoke]

.
I knew about Bill Benter but not about the other guy that mickey posted about
I should have limited my post about how few if any win to the U.S.
I believe U.S. racing is much, tougher to beat than Hong Kong racing
in the U.S. the field size is much smaller, creating fewer opportunities
there are other reasons I don't want to get into right now

in Hong Kong the average field size is 10.63 starters per race and the average win price is $14.26

in the U.S. the average field size is 7.40 - I couldn't find the average win price in the U.S. but I'm sure it's much, much less than that

field size in the U.S. has consistently shrunk over time and it greatly impacts the payouts

and as discussed before re Billy Walters - Benter beat racing in Hong Kong using in depth statistical models

Andrew Beyer and others like him, when they were able to beat racing, were betting based on their personal opinions re the races and the horses entered

Benter's winnings and accomplishments dwarfed Beyer's - but I find Beyer much more interesting - betting by forming an opinion of the race is much more appealing to me, it makes the game fun, but I acknowledge it can't be anywhere near as profitable

to sum it up, right now with the small fields and the small payouts, the gigantic takeout and with the everyday players who know the game well even if they don't win - the best of them probably about break even - I don't think anybody can beat U.S. racing - foreign racing - I don't know

.

[accountinquestion]

.
I knew about Bill Benter but not about the other guy that mickey posted about
I should have limited my post about how few if any win to the U.S.
I believe U.S. racing is much, tougher to beat than Hong Kong racing
in the U.S. the field size is much smaller, creating fewer opportunities
there are other reasons I don't want to get into right now

in Hong Kong the average field size is 10.63 starters per race and the average win price is $14.26

in the U.S. the average field size is 7.40 - I couldn't find the average win price in the U.S. but I'm sure it's much, much less than that

field size in the U.S. has consistently shrunk over time and it greatly impacts the payouts

and as discussed before re Billy Walters - Benter beat racing in Hong Kong using in depth statistical models

Andrew Beyer and others like him, when they were able to beat racing, were betting based on their personal opinions re the races and the horses entered

Benter's winnings and accomplishments dwarfed Beyer's - but I find Beyer much more interesting - betting by forming an opinion of the race is much more appealing to me, it makes the game fun, but I acknowledge it can't be anywhere near as profitable

to sum it up, right now with the small fields and the small payouts, the gigantic takeout and with the everyday players who know the game well even if they don't win - the best of them probably about break even - I don't think anybody can beat U.S. racing - foreign racing - I don't know

.

Advanced statistical models are far closer to AI than opinions.

Opinions may be more impressive but always subject to change in various ways.

My main point was that advanced statistical models need more data. Actionable data. This will be the same for ai.

[redietz]

.
I knew about Bill Benter but not about the other guy that mickey posted about
I should have limited my post about how few if any win to the U.S.
I believe U.S. racing is much, tougher to beat than Hong Kong racing
in the U.S. the field size is much smaller, creating fewer opportunities
there are other reasons I don't want to get into right now

in Hong Kong the average field size is 10.63 starters per race and the average win price is $14.26

in the U.S. the average field size is 7.40 - I couldn't find the average win price in the U.S. but I'm sure it's much, much less than that

field size in the U.S. has consistently shrunk over time and it greatly impacts the payouts

and as discussed before re Billy Walters - Benter beat racing in Hong Kong using in depth statistical models

Andrew Beyer and others like him, when they were able to beat racing, were betting based on their personal opinions re the races and the horses entered

Benter's winnings and accomplishments dwarfed Beyer's - but I find Beyer much more interesting - betting by forming an opinion of the race is much more appealing to me, it makes the game fun, but I acknowledge it can't be anywhere near as profitable

to sum it up, right now with the small fields and the small payouts, the gigantic takeout and with the everyday players who know the game well even if they don't win - the best of them probably about break even - I don't think anybody can beat U.S. racing - foreign racing - I don't know

.

Advanced statistical models are far closer to AI than opinions.

Opinions may be more impressive but always subject to change in various ways.

My main point was that advanced statistical models need more data. Actionable data. This will be the same for ai.

LOL. So close, yet so far. You do realize that the entire discussion hinges on the proper definition of "data?" How does one define "data?" More importantly, how SHOULD one define "data?"

I'm giving away half the farm with this but looking where the light shines is a real problem when you deal with definitions.

And finally, you do realize there have been people running programs 24/7 for 20 years to create statistical brushstroke equivalents of real events? Do you really think anything someone can do today wasn't investigated five, or even 10, years ago by people with virtually unlimited resources?

And you're missing the main gist of Hong Kong racing, by the way, that makes it theoretically solvable and that separates it in essence from US racing. But I'm sure you can figure that out for yourself.

[accountinquestion]

.
I knew about Bill Benter but not about the other guy that mickey posted about
I should have limited my post about how few if any win to the U.S.
I believe U.S. racing is much, tougher to beat than Hong Kong racing
in the U.S. the field size is much smaller, creating fewer opportunities
there are other reasons I don't want to get into right now

in Hong Kong the average field size is 10.63 starters per race and the average win price is $14.26

in the U.S. the average field size is 7.40 - I couldn't find the average win price in the U.S. but I'm sure it's much, much less than that

field size in the U.S. has consistently shrunk over time and it greatly impacts the payouts

and as discussed before re Billy Walters - Benter beat racing in Hong Kong using in depth statistical models

Andrew Beyer and others like him, when they were able to beat racing, were betting based on their personal opinions re the races and the horses entered

Benter's winnings and accomplishments dwarfed Beyer's - but I find Beyer much more interesting - betting by forming an opinion of the race is much more appealing to me, it makes the game fun, but I acknowledge it can't be anywhere near as profitable

to sum it up, right now with the small fields and the small payouts, the gigantic takeout and with the everyday players who know the game well even if they don't win - the best of them probably about break even - I don't think anybody can beat U.S. racing - foreign racing - I don't know

.

Advanced statistical models are far closer to AI than opinions.

Opinions may be more impressive but always subject to change in various ways.

My main point was that advanced statistical models need more data. Actionable data. This will be the same for ai.

LOL. So close, yet so far. You do realize that the entire discussion hinges on the proper definition of "data?" How does one define "data?" More importantly, how SHOULD one define "data?"

I'm giving away half the farm with this but looking where the light shines is a real problem when you deal with definitions.

And finally, you do realize there have been people running programs 24/7 for 20 years to create statistical brushstroke equivalents of real events? Do you really think anything someone can do today wasn't investigated five, or even 10, years ago by people with virtually unlimited resources?

And you're missing the main gist of Hong Kong racing, by the way, that makes it theoretically solvable and that separates it in essence from US racing. But I'm sure you can figure that out for yourself.

This thread is for professional Sports betting not professional clown college. You are in the wrong thread. It was a discussion about AI.

Clown you should read the Wiki page on expected value to learn even how more wrong you are about so much. There are likely other reasons that the Hong Kong guys were able to beat it I really do not remember the details but part of that is to have more data. This is what ai relies on. This is why the style of AI that has taken over relies on bots that are just hammering every website all over the web. Because they want more and more data to train the ai off. So when someone asks a question about AI in relation to sports betting then yes the model matters. AI is just a catch all. All these programs that you speak of having run for 20 years could also just as well be considered AI.