Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
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I knew about Bill Benter but not about the other guy that mickey posted about
I should have limited my post about how few if any win to the U.S.
I believe U.S. racing is much, tougher to beat than Hong Kong racing
in the U.S. the field size is much smaller, creating fewer opportunities
there are other reasons I don't want to get into right now

in Hong Kong the average field size is 10.63 starters per race and the average win price is $14.26

in the U.S. the average field size is 7.40 - I couldn't find the average win price in the U.S. but I'm sure it's much, much less than that

field size in the U.S. has consistently shrunk over time and it greatly impacts the payouts

and as discussed before re Billy Walters - Benter beat racing in Hong Kong using in depth statistical models

Andrew Beyer and others like him, when they were able to beat racing, were betting based on their personal opinions re the races and the horses entered

Benter's winnings and accomplishments dwarfed Beyer's - but I find Beyer much more interesting - betting by forming an opinion of the race is much more appealing to me, it makes the game fun, but I acknowledge it can't be anywhere near as profitable

to sum it up, right now with the small fields and the small payouts, the gigantic takeout and with the everyday players who know the game well even if they don't win - the best of them probably about break even - I don't think anybody can beat U.S. racing - foreign racing - I don't know

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Advanced statistical models are far closer to AI than opinions.

Opinions may be more impressive but always subject to change in various ways.

My main point was that advanced statistical models need more data. Actionable data. This will be the same for ai.