Professional Sportsbetting

[accountinquestion]

I'm sorry for being rude. I reread what you said and you say nothing. A lot of stupid do you realize this or that. Clearly you're just trying to be redowtz the clown.

Giving away half the farm.. he said. So dunning Kruger

[Half Smoke]

.
it's no real mystery how Benter was able to crush Hong Kong racing
he crunched every piece of data available to him - no doubt he was very brilliant in the way he approached it
I find betting horses that way to be very boring and I couldn't enjoy it
and so I never will and never did make big $ when I was betting horses - but I only lost a little, had lots of winning days and even a couple of winning years and had a lot of fun

as I indicated earlier the average win payout in Hong Kong is/was $14.26 - way, way more than the average in the U.S.

I will go out on a limb and estimate the average win payout in U.S. racing as being about $5.80 -

no doubt at all, much, much more sucker money in the Hong Kong pools - the suckers love the longshots

Benter no doubt knew that and that's why he went there

when so much $ is on the shots the logical contenders pay much more when they win than they would if it was an efficient market

that, along with all of his data crunching was how he did it and why he was able to do it

.

[accountinquestion]

So my real point is that if there is not some extra data available, like individual specifics that aren't averaged numbers, then maybe AI could give +ev picks. But for the most part I assume it would be given stuff that wouldn't really give the AI that much of an edge. Perhaps if ai could pull player+timing data off of video from the game then I would think that the AI had a good chance. It is most likely just bs. AI sells. With the same level of data the sharp originators have I would be surprised. I'd also be surprised if an operation was able to create something like this that they would then sell picks.

[Half Smoke]

So my real point is that if there is not some extra data available, like individual specifics that aren't averaged numbers, then maybe AI could give +ev picks. But for the most part I assume it would be given stuff that wouldn't really give the AI that much of an edge. Perhaps if ai could pull player+timing data off of video from the game then I would think that the AI had a good chance. It is most likely just bs. AI sells. With the same level of data the sharp originators have I would be surprised. I'd also be surprised if an operation was able to create something like this that they would then sell picks.

and of course if AI can be shown to be highly predictive the sports books themselves can use it to set their opening lines which could possibly be unbeatable in the long run

the bettors themselves would have to cause the line to move considerably for a sharp to find any value

[accountinquestion]

So my real point is that if there is not some extra data available, like individual specifics that aren't averaged numbers, then maybe AI could give +ev picks. But for the most part I assume it would be given stuff that wouldn't really give the AI that much of an edge. Perhaps if ai could pull player+timing data off of video from the game then I would think that the AI had a good chance. It is most likely just bs. AI sells. With the same level of data the sharp originators have I would be surprised. I'd also be surprised if an operation was able to create something like this that they would then sell picks.

and of course if AI can be shown to be highly predictive the sports books themselves can use it to set their opening lines which could possibly be unbeatable in the long run

the bettors themselves would have to cause the line to move considerably for a sharp to find any value

yea, I do not disagree.

The thing about AI is that it requires a ton of little signals that are actionable. Things that humans may or may not be able to perceive but even if it is perceivable humans can't sum up all those little signals in a meaningful way. But at the end of the day this sort of data has to be available. A bunch of stats won't have any sort of granularity for AI to act off.

I have had the thought that if football has a fixed camera thena system could be made to time and record the placement of all the players off of the video. This sort of data could have AI sharper but otherwise I'm quite skeptical there is enough there. The lines still have to be weak enough to begin with. Feeding in news about the state of players would also clearly be part of it.

AI is going to really suck in so many ways. Mostly a way to suck money out of the lower classes. "more efficiency" means "more for us less for them". Just about always.

[mickeycrimm]

I told ya the Texans would cover. Hahaha!

[mickeycrimm]

n
Steve Fezzik
@FezzikSports

Dan Abrams, Sports Betting Book

I give it a B+. The Math gets an A+, as does how he explains that ANY breakeven expectation hedge should ALWAYS be made (IN FULL!!) to hedge a great bet, and in fact a slightly negative bet is often OPTIMAL to partially hedge a big bet.

My only caveat; this book does not explain HOW to win, or give examples. However, it is great explaining when and how to hedge.
10:16 AM · Jan 14, 2025

[AxelWolf]

I am fairly sure this guy uses the words edge/advantage/sharp etc. This is what a proper pro sports betting operation looks like nowadays. He didn't mention entering free contests or charging investors.

[mickeycrimm]

I am fairly sure this guy uses the words edge/advantage/sharp etc. This is what a proper pro sports betting operation looks like nowadays. He didn't mention entering free contests or charging investors.

Randy M. has been going to Colorado every football season for like the last 5 years. He says he gets a bigger edge and more things to bet. But he just announced he'll be in a different state next football season.

[AxelWolf]

I am fairly sure this guy uses the words edge/advantage/sharp etc. This is what a proper pro sports betting operation looks like nowadays. He didn't mention entering free contests or charging investors.

Randy M. has been going to Colorado every football season for like the last 5 years. He says he gets a bigger edge and more things to bet. But he just announced he'll be in a different state next football season.

"Dave probably can't name a single player."

Dave CAN calculate his edge.

Pay close attention to 19:40 till the end.

[accountinquestion]

I am fairly sure this guy uses the words edge/advantage/sharp etc. This is what a proper pro sports betting operation looks like nowadays. He didn't mention entering free contests or charging investors.

Randy M. has been going to Colorado every football season for like the last 5 years. He says he gets a bigger edge and more things to bet. But he just announced he'll be in a different state next football season.

"Dave probably can't name a single player."

Dave CAN calculate his edge.

Pay close attention to 19:40 till the end.

He uses expected value at one point and also talks about comparing to the Pinnacle line. Stuff that's been going on forever.

Makes me want to go to colorado.

[Rob.Singer]

"Makes me want to go to colorado"

Maybe by next year...if you save up enough. And if "man-made climate change" doesn't kill you first.

Oh wait! Trump is using simple common sense and putting as much fossil fuel back into our lives as we'll need. And those STOOPID STUPID windmills....the axe is coming.

[Don Perignom]

"Makes me want to go to colorado"

Maybe by next year...if you save up enough. And if "man-made climate change" doesn't kill you first.

Oh wait! Trump is using simple common sense and putting as much fossil fuel back into our lives as we'll need. And those STOOPID STUPID windmills....the axe is coming.

I thought it was probably my imagination, but my skin feels a little oilier since the inauguration.

[MisterV]

One of the many flaws with Trump and the maggots is that they put no value in continuity of policy.

Should be fun to watch what happens.

Hey, I hope he makes America great as opposed to bankrupting or destroying it in nuclear fire.

tick tick tick

[MisterV]

One of the many flaws with Trump and the maggots is that they put no value in continuity of policy.

Suddenly trying to kill off EV's and wind power in order to benefit American oil companies is going to cost those who committed to these technologies a shitload of money, not that he cares.

Hey, watch how he'll do everything in his power to make money for himself and his cronies, the rest of us be damned.

Tough time to be starting out, poor, or a minority...very tough times ahead for them, but not for guys like me who already "made it" and need only keep track of our myriad investments.

[accountinquestion]

"Makes me want to go to colorado"

Maybe by next year...if you save up enough. And if "man-made climate change" doesn't kill you first.

Oh wait! Trump is using simple common sense and putting as much fossil fuel back into our lives as we'll need. And those STOOPID STUPID windmills....the axe is coming.

You're like a retarded kid or something.

I'm just telling people reality but it seems to be more in the heads of those in denial. You've probably brought up the issue far more than me outside that one thread... but hey whatever you need for attention. I guess.

What does it feel like knowing you'll die without the respect of even one professional gambler? Especially given how hard you've tried your whole life to gain credibility? You, redietz, and kewl. All so alike. But redietz and kewl are far far more likely to have won more than they lost.

[AxelWolf]

Randy M. has been going to Colorado every football season for like the last 5 years. He says he gets a bigger edge and more things to bet. But he just announced he'll be in a different state next football season.

"Dave probably can't name a single player."

Dave CAN calculate his edge.

Pay close attention to 19:40 till the end.

He uses expected value at one point and also talks about comparing to the Pinnacle line. Stuff that's been going on forever.

Makes me want to go to colorado.

Don't be an idiot accountinquestion! According to Reditz, that kind of stuff isn't viable. YOU MUST BE AN EXPERT HANDYCAPPER FOR YEARS AT ONE SPORT.

[accountinquestion]

"Dave probably can't name a single player."

Dave CAN calculate his edge.

Pay close attention to 19:40 till the end.

He uses expected value at one point and also talks about comparing to the Pinnacle line. Stuff that's been going on forever.

Makes me want to go to colorado.

Don't be an idiot accountinquestion! According to Reditz, that kind of stuff isn't viable. YOU MUST BE AN EXPERT HANDYCAPPER FOR YEARS AT ONE SPORT.

The other interesting part was the 'numbers guy' that they spoke so highly of (and was interviewed).. I also heard the line "he couldn't tell you the name of one player" in reference to him. This is another thing Redietz ridiculed at some point. I get why (it demotes the importance of his super fanboy football knowledge which he wants to hold so high)

lol and expected value isn't a useful concept... it is all silly nonsense according to Redietz. They're basically doing the same thing I was doing 15 years ago but multi-accounting and using Don's Best for lines. Assume pinny line is correct/sharpest and look for lines where the EV is positive using stats and such.

BTW I've been on the internet as long as anyone you'll come across and in all those years I can't recall one person who put forth themselves as such an expert while simultaneously soooooo wrong. Redietz is special. And he does it with such arrogance.

regarding the youtube clip - Those partner guys seem like the guys who are collecting the accounts. Thats pretty standard for a sports betting operation. At one point while talking about the mail game you gave me a good pointer on how to get new players club accounts. It seems valid for what these guys do.

I wonder how that works with these guys. If you have to trust the people to show up and withdraw the money in person then you've added quite a bit of risk but ... is there typically a way to cash out without ID? I really don't know. I need to go stay in Blackhawk for a couple weeks and get a feel for it.

[mickeycrimm]

I am fairly sure this guy uses the words edge/advantage/sharp etc. This is what a proper pro sports betting operation looks like nowadays. He didn't mention entering free contests or charging investors.

Randy M. has been going to Colorado every football season for like the last 5 years. He says he gets a bigger edge and more things to bet. But he just announced he'll be in a different state next football season.

"Dave probably can't name a single player."

Dave CAN calculate his edge.

Pay close attention to 19:40 till the end.

The video is 3 years old. Prior to announcing that he would go to a different state next football season, Randy M. said he didn't make as much money on football in Colorado in 2024 as he did in prior years. Reading between the lines it could mean that Colorado books are finally tightening up. But someone new may find promotions to work for awhile. Plus there are advantage slots in Blackhawk/Central City.

[accountinquestion]

"Makes me want to go to colorado"

Maybe by next year...if you save up enough. And if "man-made climate change" doesn't kill you first.

Oh wait! Trump is using simple common sense and putting as much fossil fuel back into our lives as we'll need. And those STOOPID STUPID windmills....the axe is coming.

You're like a retarded kid or something.

I'm just telling people reality but it seems to be more in the heads of those in denial. You've probably brought up the issue far more than me outside that one thread... but hey whatever you need for attention. I guess.

What does it feel like knowing you'll die without the respect of even one professional gambler? Especially given how hard you've tried your whole life to gain credibility? You, redietz, and kewl. All so alike. But redietz and kewl are far far more likely to have won more than they lost.

Randy M. has been going to Colorado every football season for like the last 5 years. He says he gets a bigger edge and more things to bet. But he just announced he'll be in a different state next football season.

"Dave probably can't name a single player."

Dave CAN calculate his edge.

Pay close attention to 19:40 till the end.

The video is 3 years old. Prior to announcing that he would go to a different state next football season, Randy M. said he didn't make as much money on football in Colorado in 2024 as he did in prior years. Reading between the lines it could mean that Colorado books are finally tightening up. But someone new may find promotions to work for awhile. Plus there are advantage slots in Blackhawk/Central City.

Oh lol. I didn't bother to look at the time but this makes a lot more sense. What they were doing was just too simple.

I do remember reading about guys who would beat books with live play. It may very well have been some of those guys. Fun stuff to be at the right place at the right time with the right knowledge.