Professional Sportsbetting

[MisterV]

Boz, this is insulting and you know it. :/

Girl, on a scale of one to ten this insult is at worst a two.

You truly are the gift that keeps on giving, whether you know it or not.

[mickeycrimm]

I suppose making money from eight consecutive announcements is just luck, like flipping a coin eight times. LOL. Or -- wait for it -- sports betting might feature non-random events for which random equations are, I wouldn't say worthless, but largely irrelevant. Hmmmm. I wonder which is the case.

Walters applied statistics from actual games, not "random probability theory" or "random equations", to make his bets on these "non-random events."

[mickeycrimm]

Eight of eight making a profit on these things? Wild stuff.

Monet has hit 8 in a row many times. Are you as good as him?

[mickeycrimm]

I suppose making money from eight consecutive announcements is just luck, like flipping a coin eight times. LOL. Or -- wait for it -- sports betting might feature non-random events for which random equations are, I wouldn't say worthless, but largely irrelevant. Hmmmm. I wonder which is the case.

So you saying that Monet, who has hit 8 in a row many times, is a highly skilled sports bettor? Is he betteer than you?

[mickeycrimm]

With the Eagles advancing to the Super Bowl, the Riddler once again turned a profit with his last riddle if you hedge it out. He's an amazing fella. Eagles were fifth choice at the time he "Riddled Us This."

I posted his last riddle to me, which I received tonight, in the "Sports Betting" section, so as to follow mcap's preferences. I don't know -- the guy is psychic or something. What is he now? Eight of eight making a profit on these things? Wild stuff.

How bout those Steelers? Lol

Ditz picked the Steelers to go to the Super Bowl in Week 13. You know what a great handicapper he is. Knows his stuff for sure, right. Best around.

The Steelers lost their last five games. Bwahahahahahahaha!!!! You really know how to pick 'em there, redietz.

[Half Smoke]

.
"playyourcardsright" won the WOV NFL picks contest going 67-31 - 68.4% -

I don't recall ever seeing anyone get that high a % with that many picks - just short of 100

I thought it might just be luck so I checked out what he did the previous season - he just missed winning that one with 60.4%

edit - I just looked at the 2022 season and he was only at 50% for that one

so either he improved a lot or he got very, very lucky for 2 straight years

.

[kewlJ]

.
"playyourcardsright" won the WOV NFL picks contest going 67-31 - 68.4% -

I don't recall ever seeing anyone get that high a % with that many picks - just short of 100

I thought it might just be luck so I checked out what he did the previous season - he just missed winning that one with 60.4%

when I first saw his results for this season I thought it might just be luck - but after seeing the previous season I believe he is the real deal

I would say there's a very good chance anyone could profit just by playing his picks next season

edit - I just looked at the 2022 season and he was only at 50% for that one

so either he improved a lot or he got very, very lucky for 2 straight years

.

Well that's nothing. Redietz finished in 4th place in some contest back in 1984.

So seriously, that is impressive, especially the 2 year total. Any idea as to who "playyourcardsright" might be? I don't see him posting anything else at WoV. Wondering if he is strictly a sports Capper.

[redietz]

.
"playyourcardsright" won the WOV NFL picks contest going 67-31 - 68.4% -

I don't recall ever seeing anyone get that high a % with that many picks - just short of 100

I thought it might just be luck so I checked out what he did the previous season - he just missed winning that one with 60.4%

edit - I just looked at the 2022 season and he was only at 50% for that one

so either he improved a lot or he got very, very lucky for 2 straight years

.

No, you're looking at this the wrong way.

First of all, what he did this year is flat-out awesome, and what he did back-to-back years is spectacular.

But it's not as if each season presents the same problems or challenges or unfolds similarly with the same information leading to the same theories working the same ways.

Each season is a live experiment. This is not (I say this ad nauseum) coin flipping. Seasons are not even close to being identical challenges. So what he accomplished is spectacular, but having a 50% year two seasons ago is not some huge anomaly or evidence that there's been a learning curve of some kind. The lesson for you, as a thinker and writer, is to acknowledge that the idea of some learning curve, while a possibility in some sense, is not necessary at all and may just be you trying to impose an unnecessary interpretation on what you just witnessed.

The more likely explanation is that the seasons were simply different, and what this handicapper did worked much better with the stream of information he got this season as opposed to two seasons ago.

This kind of superficial inconsistency is not uncommon at all, and it has nothing to do with "reversion to the mean" or anything like that. It has to do with the tools and perceptual abilities a handicapper brings to the table meshing or not meshing with the information as a season unfolds. If you had read the old McCusker's Reports from the 80's and 90's ("Tipsters or Gypsters?" published in LV), you would see that this kind of thing happens routinely (well, not a 68% NFL season, but certainly 60-something NFL seasons). And what happened before or what happens next may not bear much resemblance.

It's not reversion to any mean, and it's not necessarily someone "improving" or going superficially brain dead if he crashes and burns next year. It's style and intellectual tools being brought to bear on very different informational streams, since each season is different.

[kewlJ]

If you had read the old McCusker's Reports from the 80's and 90's ("Tipsters or Gypsters?" published in LV), you would see that this kind of thing happens routinely (well, not a 68% NFL season, but certainly 60-something NFL seasons).

See!! Case in point.

You just can't even make this shit up. Redietz is the best there ever was in sports betting circles. Anything....anything at all that even hints otherwise, and he goes nuts.

And we know he is the best ever because he has the shack in the middle of nowhere with unpaid taxes to prove it.

He also has the clippings from publications from 40 years ago to prove it.

I hope he doesn't wake up some day to discover it is 2025 and not the 1980's.

[Half Smoke]

.
he did about 64% for about 200 games (slightly less than 200 but slightly more than 64%)

I asked google what is the chance of flipping heads 64% of the time in 200 flips

the answer came back - 0.00004 or four one hundredths of 1%

so, it is possible it could be done with extreme luck - but not likely - most likely skill


.

[AxelWolf]

I suppose making money from eight consecutive announcements is just luck, like flipping a coin eight times. LOL. Or -- wait for it -- sports betting might feature non-random events for which random equations are, I wouldn't say worthless, but largely irrelevant. Hmmmm. I wonder which is the case.

So you saying that Monet, who has hit 8 in a row many times, is a highly skilled sports bettor? Is he betteer than you?

I posted up proof I went 11 for 11 in the NFL a while ago. I won 2 NFL contests that had 10's of thousands of entries(I have only ever entered 2 contests), and I have been severely limited, banned, and backed off from many books (I just got the bad word on yet another the other day) I must be super good.

[redietz]

If you had read the old McCusker's Reports from the 80's and 90's ("Tipsters or Gypsters?" published in LV), you would see that this kind of thing happens routinely (well, not a 68% NFL season, but certainly 60-something NFL seasons).

See!! Case in point.

You just can't even make this shit up. Redietz is the best there ever was in sports betting circles. Anything....anything at all that even hints otherwise, and he goes nuts.

And we know he is the best ever because he has the shack in the middle of nowhere with unpaid taxes to prove it.

He also has the clippings from publications from 40 years ago to prove it.

I hope he doesn't wake up some day to discover it is 2025 and not the 1980's.

Not sure how the forum bullshitter managed to interpret what I just posted as self-aggrandizing but far be it for me to question the reading comprehension of the 'Nova guy.

Not sure how "I went nuts," either, given that I thought I was being congratulatory and respectful. But again, I'm sure the interpretative powers of the Villanova dude far outstrip my own.

I think it was rather connotatively clear that 68% ATS in the NFL for a hundred plays is awesome and not something I have ever done for a season. I managed 66.7% for college and NFL combined once, for a hundred plays, but that's about my high-water mark. I did manage 69% for college-only one year with more than a hundred plays, but I was sub.500 in the NFL, and it was a long time ago.

As for "sports betting circles," I have always stayed in my lane. More than 85% of my betting volume is college football, which I have stated maybe 50 times on this forum.

Methinks the kewlJs are annoyed that I am on to them. KewlJs, you ain't that slick. Everybody is on to your bullshit. Even MrV.

And kewlJs -- you must admit. I might be dated, but that The Riddler guy seems to be pretty good at current stuff. What is it now -- he made money at seven wager recommendations in a row? Or was it eight? And he hasn't lost money at anything. Now there is one current winning dude. And he gave them all away. Boy, he must be rolling in it, to give away eight consecutive winning plays. We should probably invite him to post regularly. You know, he might be single. You could drop him some PMs and find out.

P.S. I think my taxes are late again this year. LOL. Will pay them next week. If the KewlJ's would be good enough to let me know what I owe, I'll get right on it.

[kewlJ]

Methinks the kewlJs are annoyed that I am on to them.

You are on to NOTHING, dude, except you have jumped onto the troll bandwagon with Singer, Dawg, Belly. That is some company you are keeping.

As for your taxes, it wasn't me that looked up and exposed your tax situation. It was belly. I would ask him if you are unsure what you owe. But let's see, did property value of the shack go up this year? Did you make improvements? add electricity or running water?

[redietz]

Methinks the kewlJs are annoyed that I am on to them.

You are on to NOTHING, dude, except you have jumped onto the troll bandwagon with Singer, Dawg, Belly. That is some company you are keeping.

As for your taxes, it wasn't me that looked up and exposed your tax situation. It was belly. I would ask him if you are unsure what you owe. But let's see, did property value of the shack go up this year? Did you make improvements? add electricity or running water?

So are you gonna email The Riddler? He's hot -- not just winning money, but hot in general. Kind of a cross between Eastwood and Schwarzenegger, but young enough to really please somebody with a limber jaw.

[AxelWolf]

.
"playyourcardsright" won the WOV NFL picks contest going 67-31 - 68.4% -

I don't recall ever seeing anyone get that high a % with that many picks - just short of 100

I thought it might just be luck so I checked out what he did the previous season - he just missed winning that one with 60.4%

edit - I just looked at the 2022 season and he was only at 50% for that one

so either he improved a lot or he got very, very lucky for 2 straight years

.

Did you look to see if there was any indication of how or why he was making certain picks? Was he leaning toward stale lines type of situations? Perhaps he was using unabated and similar types of modern-day technology.

[kewlJ]

So are you gonna email The Riddler? He's hot -- not just winning money, but hot in general. Kind of a cross between Eastwood and Schwarzenegger, but young enough to really please somebody with a limber jaw.

Schwarzenegger is 77 years old. Eastwood 94 years old. And fellow homo Redietz thinks they are hot!

In fairness to Red, he risides in the 1980's....so maybe 40-45 years ago, if that was your type Red.

[mickeycrimm]

If you had read the old McCusker's Reports from the 80's and 90's ("Tipsters or Gypsters?" published in LV), you would see that this kind of thing happens routinely (well, not a 68% NFL season, but certainly 60-something NFL seasons).

See!! Case in point.

You just can't even make this shit up. Redietz is the best there ever was in sports betting circles. Anything....anything at all that even hints otherwise, and he goes nuts.

And we know he is the best ever because he has the shack in the middle of nowhere with unpaid taxes to prove it.

He also has the clippings from publications from 40 years ago to prove it.

I hope he doesn't wake up some day to discover it is 2025 and not the 1980's.

Not sure how the forum bullshitter managed to interpret what I just posted as self-aggrandizing but far be it for me to question the reading comprehension of the 'Nova guy.

Not sure how "I went nuts," either, given that I thought I was being congratulatory and respectful. But again, I'm sure the interpretative powers of the Villanova dude far outstrip my own.

I think it was rather connotatively clear that 68% ATS in the NFL for a hundred plays is awesome and not something I have ever done for a season. I managed 66.7% for college and NFL combined once, for a hundred plays, but that's about my high-water mark. I did manage 69% for college-only one year with more than a hundred plays, but I was sub.500 in the NFL, and it was a long time ago.

As for "sports betting circles," I have always stayed in my lane. More than 85% of my betting volume is college football, which I have stated maybe 50 times on this forum.

Methinks the kewlJs are annoyed that I am on to them. KewlJs, you ain't that slick. Everybody is on to your bullshit. Even MrV.

And kewlJs -- you must admit. I might be dated, but that The Riddler guy seems to be pretty good at current stuff. What is it now -- he made money at seven wager recommendations in a row? Or was it eight? And he hasn't lost money at anything. Now there is one current winning dude. And he gave them all away. Boy, he must be rolling in it, to give away eight consecutive winning plays. We should probably invite him to post regularly. You know, he might be single. You could drop him some PMs and find out.

P.S. I think my taxes are late again this year. LOL. Will pay them next week. If the KewlJ's would be good enough to let me know what I owe, I'll get right on it.

Meanwhile Billy Walters used the same statistical model year in and year out. He must have just gotten lucky since opinions are far superior to statistics.

[mickeycrimm]

Shackleford makes his superbowl picks....and reveals a handicapping system.

https://wizardofodds.com/newsletter/...super-bowl-59/

[AxelWolf]

So are you gonna email The Riddler? He's hot -- not just winning money, but hot in general. Kind of a cross between Eastwood and Schwarzenegger, but young enough to really please somebody with a limber jaw.

Schwarzenegger is 77 years old. Eastwood 94 years old. And fellow homo Redietz thinks they are hot!

In fairness to Red, he risides in the 1980's....so maybe 40-45 years ago, if that was your type Red.

Homo say what????

I recently told my favorite gay joke to a small crowd of people and one lady was Furious. LOL. iI's a great joke if someone is furious

FYI. I recently noticed that Hillary Duff (37) looks pretty good for her age.

[kewlJ]

So are you gonna email The Riddler? He's hot -- not just winning money, but hot in general. Kind of a cross between Eastwood and Schwarzenegger, but young enough to really please somebody with a limber jaw.

You have a degree in English Language and Literature, and this riddler stuff is what you come up with?

That is Penn State Strong.