Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

What I have difficulty with:

1) Folks who, outside of arbitrage, middles-shooting, and bonuses -- which are fine arrows in a "sports betting" quiver -- think they can out-expertise actual sports bettors, who generally do NOT venture much outside their sport of expertise. Have you read none of the classic sports betting books from Huntington Press? The biographies? There are really no jacks-of-all-trades in "sports betting." The funny thing about this is that these two are arguing that I'm dated, while the idea that one person can tackle multiple sports is actually the dated theme, straight out of the 70's and 80's.

2) Folks who think being able to anticipate line moves in different sports is something they can do without intimately knowing either the sports or the public betting the sports.

3) Folks who tell stories to themselves without third-party verification. This is the primary difference between handicappers and the APs claiming to be handicappers. The handicappers' ATS records, including middles-shooting and arbitrage, can be tracked, monitored, and verified via monitoring records, client records, and contest records. The "APs" claims to winning can be verified because they say so. These are two entirely different ways of establishing reality. You can either be publicly tracked, like say, oh, The Riddler, or you can be a heroic winner because you say so, like Axelwolf or kewlJ.

4) Do you geniuses actually think, coming from AP-land, that you have access to more wisdom, more expertise, and more angles than people like Phil Ivey or Bob Dancer, who have crashed and burned sports betting? Is that your argument? That you are better bettors than Ungar or Ivey or Dancer? That you bring more to the table than these people? More expertise, more brainpower, more contacts? Pardon the guffaws.

One thing about redietz is he don't double-check things to get details correct before he commits words to the screen.

Unger is a piss poor example of expertise and brainpower. He was a compulsive gambler. He could beat tournament poker and gin rummy. Then he would dump the money to live poker, horse racing, blackjack and sports betting. In the NFL he bet every game every week. A bookie's dream. He could never keep a bankroll.

Ivey is a piss poor example of expertise and brainpower. He's a compulsive gambler that loses to everything but poker. He generally couldn't make it past the craps table on his way from the poker room. He was a big time sports betting loser too. He would dump his poker winnings and more. He was not an expert in edge sorting. He was convinced by those in the know to use a professional edge sorter.

I don't know that Bob Dancer quit sports betting altogether. I know that he got caught in the losing streak on safeties in the Super Bowl with Shack and that soured him on some things. But his long running partner, Richard Munchkin, recently moved into sports betting and as I've heard he is doing pretty good with it.

Redietz doesn't know this but years ago Dancer replaced Frank Kneeland on GWAE because Kneeland was expert only in video poker. Dancer wanted people that were experts on multiple games. Much to redietz' chagrin, Munchkin is expert on multiple games.

FYI it was Fankie who started the show and brought on Dancer.

Take this for what it's worth since it is hearsay.

Several of Fanky's confidants were very angry with Bob and they claimed Bob pushed Franki out and took over the show.

Yes, I know. I talked to Frank over the phone about it when it happened.

[redietz]

One thing about redietz is he don't double-check things to get details correct before he commits words to the screen.

Unger is a piss poor example of expertise and brainpower. He was a compulsive gambler. He could beat tournament poker and gin rummy. Then he would dump the money to live poker, horse racing, blackjack and sports betting. In the NFL he bet every game every week. A bookie's dream. He could never keep a bankroll.

Ivey is a piss poor example of expertise and brainpower. He's a compulsive gambler that loses to everything but poker. He generally couldn't make it past the craps table on his way from the poker room. He was a big time sports betting loser too. He would dump his poker winnings and more. He was not an expert in edge sorting. He was convinced by those in the know to use a professional edge sorter.

I don't know that Bob Dancer quit sports betting altogether. I know that he got caught in the losing streak on safeties in the Super Bowl with Shack and that soured him on some things. But his long running partner, Richard Munchkin, recently moved into sports betting and as I've heard he is doing pretty good with it.

Redietz doesn't know this but years ago Dancer replaced Frank Kneeland on GWAE because Kneeland was expert only in video poker. Dancer wanted people that were experts on multiple games. Much to redietz' chagrin, Munchkin is expert on multiple games.

FYI it was Fankie who started the show and brought on Dancer.

Take this for what it's worth since it is hearsay.

Several of Fanky's confidants were very angry with Bob and they claimed Bob pushed Franki out and took over the show.

Yes, I know. I talked to Frank over the phone about it when it happened.

Here's a thought, mickey. Actually read what Dancer has written in his own blog. Rather than say "I heard."

Unger dumped money on live poker? Not if he wasn't gooned up to the gills. Where did you "hear" that? You must have a private library with that info. I've read most of what has been written (not on forums) vis-a-vis Unger. And I know someone who came up with him in the Catskills when they were both playing cards with the wealthy while working at the resorts. I sat next to the guy and his wife in the Imperial Palace sports book on Sundays for years. They had a booth. I was at the table immediately above and adjacent to them. The wife was wealthy.

But I'm sure Mickey knows better, having "heard" it.

Anything else you "hear," mickey? You sure you're not "hearing things?"

Munchkin knows very well how I feel about "Leonardo Da AP" stuff. His raison d'etre seems to be to speculate if he thinks he has an edge that has not been historically established. My raison d'etre is to wager lunch money or less until something has been established, with an eye to understanding that sports betting is transience-in-motion and anything "established" today could be completely ephemeral. I understand Munchkin's perspective in that his family/"family" has had money and he's always had a hefty safety net. My better half was in the same situation, if you get my drift.

But being from a working class family and never having had financial back-up myself, I have always taken a "bet what you know you can win at" approach. I'm not into labeling "my opinion" as "EV." Doing so is arrogant beyond belief. And completely subjective. And reeks of imprecision, which is the opposite of what using a term like "EV" should be.

[accountinquestion]

FYI it was Fankie who started the show and brought on Dancer.

Take this for what it's worth since it is hearsay.

Several of Fanky's confidants were very angry with Bob and they claimed Bob pushed Franki out and took over the show.

Yes, I know. I talked to Frank over the phone about it when it happened.

Here's a thought, mickey. Actually read what Dancer has written in his own blog. Rather than say "I heard."

Unger dumped money on live poker? Not if he wasn't gooned up to the gills. Where did you "hear" that? You must have a private library with that info. I've read most of what has been written (not on forums) vis-a-vis Unger. And I know someone who came up with him in the Catskills when they were both playing cards with the wealthy while working at the resorts. I sat next to the guy and his wife in the Imperial Palace sports book on Sundays for years. They had a booth. I was at the table immediately above and adjacent to them. The wife was wealthy.

But I'm sure Mickey knows better, having "heard" it.

Anything else you "hear," mickey? You sure you're not "hearing things?"

Munchkin knows very well how I feel about "Leonardo Da AP" stuff. His raison d'etre seems to be to speculate if he thinks he has an edge that has not been historically established. My raison d'etre is to wager lunch money or less until something has been established, with an eye to understanding that sports betting is transience-in-motion and anything "established" today could be completely ephemeral. I understand Munchkin's perspective in that his family/"family" has had money and he's always had a hefty safety net. My better half was in the same situation, if you get my drift.

But being from a working class family and never having had financial back-up myself, I have always taken a "bet what you know you can win at" approach. I'm not into labeling "my opinion" as "EV." Doing so is arrogant beyond belief. And completely subjective. And reeks of imprecision, which is the opposite of what using a term like "EV" should be.

Unger married a wealthy wife? That is surprising.

If you are still going on how using EV is "completely subjective" then you really really really really have not been paying attention at all. Whether reading the definition of EV or being aware of modern sports betting.

It is cool you bet with your gut and all but using EV you could have been living in a much nicer house given your dedication to sports betting.

It is about getting the money, brother. It is that simple. To you it is some romantic thing. Lots of these guys aren't jacking off to football news while in season. It is just a huge waste of time. Better to learn other thing.

Leonardo Da Vinci was always trying new things. Thinking about them. Thats how the mindset of a real and successful AP works, brother. Try reading about him instead of mocking him.

[coach belly]

Unger married a wealthy wife?

Is this question one of your funny jokes, or are you just a dumbass like everyone says you are?

And I know someone who came up with him in the Catskills when they were both playing cards with the wealthy while working at the resorts. I sat next to the guy and his wife in the Imperial Palace sports book on Sundays for years. They had a booth. I was at the table immediately above and adjacent to them. The wife was wealthy.

[AxelWolf]

'm not into labeling "my opinion" as "EV." Doing so is arrogant beyond belief. And completely subjective. And reeks of imprecision, which is the opposite of what using a term like "EV" should be.

i.e. I HAVE NO +EV.

[Don Perignom]

Shack has beat the Super Bowl 7. Years. In. A. Row. Phenomenal! Right?

I'm not a handicrapper at all, but his method seems low IQ. He's basically just looking at net points. 10 of the 13 other playoff teams outperformed Kansas City in net points.

It's like he's not even attempting a serious analysis.

[mickeycrimm]

Shack has beat the Super Bowl 7. Years. In. A. Row. Phenomenal! Right?

I'm not a handicrapper at all, but his method seems low IQ. He's basically just looking at net points. 10 of the 13 other playoff teams outperformed Kansas City in net points.

It's like he's not even attempting a serious analysis.

He's not attempting a serious analysis. It's a simple handicapping system. You know, like just counting 5's at blackjack.

[mickeycrimm]

FYI it was Fankie who started the show and brought on Dancer.

Take this for what it's worth since it is hearsay.

Several of Fanky's confidants were very angry with Bob and they claimed Bob pushed Franki out and took over the show.

Yes, I know. I talked to Frank over the phone about it when it happened.

Here's a thought, mickey. Actually read what Dancer has written in his own blog. Rather than say "I heard."

Unger dumped money on live poker? Not if he wasn't gooned up to the gills. Where did you "hear" that? You must have a private library with that info. I've read most of what has been written (not on forums) vis-a-vis Unger. And I know someone who came up with him in the Catskills when they were both playing cards with the wealthy while working at the resorts. I sat next to the guy and his wife in the Imperial Palace sports book on Sundays for years. They had a booth. I was at the table immediately above and adjacent to them. The wife was wealthy.

But I'm sure Mickey knows better, having "heard" it.

Anything else you "hear," mickey? You sure you're not "hearing things?"

Munchkin knows very well how I feel about "Leonardo Da AP" stuff. His raison d'etre seems to be to speculate if he thinks he has an edge that has not been historically established. My raison d'etre is to wager lunch money or less until something has been established, with an eye to understanding that sports betting is transience-in-motion and anything "established" today could be completely ephemeral. I understand Munchkin's perspective in that his family/"family" has had money and he's always had a hefty safety net. My better half was in the same situation, if you get my drift.

But being from a working class family and never having had financial back-up myself, I have always taken a "bet what you know you can win at" approach. I'm not into labeling "my opinion" as "EV." Doing so is arrogant beyond belief. And completely subjective. And reeks of imprecision, which is the opposite of what using a term like "EV" should be.

I read Dancer's blog every week. Do you? There's a paywall there these days.

As for Unger. You really know how to step in it, dude. The guy that wrote the book on Unger, Nolan Dalla, well, ahem, ahem, ahem, I talked to him frequently. We were very friendly. We played in the same poker games. I could have dropped his name a long time ago but I'm not like you. I don't pulll that worthless name dropping shit.

Very common knowledge that Unger wasn't a great cash game player. Archie Karras chopped Unger up at 7 Stud until Unger was broke. When Unger sat down in a short handed game the table filled up. Ask Billy Baxter. Do you really think Unger dried out to play cash games? LOL! Unger was good at tournament poker and gin rummy. That was it. He was a sucker at every thing else.

You don't know the difference between tournament and cash poker. It's easy to tell. Tournament poker is about maneuvering under pressure. A set amount of chips against rising blinds. Pressure to make a move, all that type of stuff. Unger excelled at it, but not in cash games. In the cash games as they are structured in Las Vegas there's no pressure. The blinds are so low you can sit there forever, not play anything, and not lose that much.

Ditz, when you find yourself in a hole....quit digging.

[Don Perignom]

He's not attempting a serious analysis. It's a simple handicapping system. You know, like just counting 5's at blackjack.

I don't get the point of it.

I don't play blackjack either, but how many smart players use the ace/5 count? Afaik, they use hi/lo because it's substantially more effective for only a little extra effort.

Sports also carries a higher house edge than bj, so the implication is you may need to work a little harder to beat it.

[smurgerburger]

I wonder if redietz' fixation on the term EV has to do with his being a tout more than a bettor.

I guess if I were trying to get people to give me money by telling them the "EV" of my prospective wagers I might feel self-conscious about that.

But most people aren't touts and just use terms like EV for the sake of communication. ("I put the EV at about...", "I think the EV is higher in this game than that game", etc.)

That would also explain his obsession with anonymity and status. Most people on forums don't care about people knowing their names and knowing who they know because their lives don't center around impressing people, because they don't need anything from people.

[accountinquestion]

Unger married a wealthy wife?

Is this question one of your funny jokes, or are you just a dumbass like everyone says you are?

And I know someone who came up with him in the Catskills when they were both playing cards with the wealthy while working at the resorts. I sat next to the guy and his wife in the Imperial Palace sports book on Sundays for years. They had a booth. I was at the table immediately above and adjacent to them. The wife was wealthy.

There are specific reasons I asked to verification. I don't need to explain myself to a dunce.

[accountinquestion]

Shack has beat the Super Bowl 7. Years. In. A. Row. Phenomenal! Right?

I'm not a handicrapper at all, but his method seems low IQ. He's basically just looking at net points. 10 of the 13 other playoff teams outperformed Kansas City in net points.

It's like he's not even attempting a serious analysis.

With weak enough lines and a good social network you don't necessarily have to be that sophisticated in your methodology.

[AxelWolf]

I wonder if redietz' fixation on the term EV has to do with his being a tout more than a bettor.

I guess if I were trying to get people to give me money by telling them the "EV" of my prospective wagers I might feel self-conscious about that.

But most people aren't touts and just use terms like EV for the sake of communication. ("I put the EV at about...", "I think the EV is higher in this game than that game", etc.)

That would also explain his obsession with anonymity and status. Most people on forums don't care about people knowing their names and knowing who they know because their lives don't center around impressing people, because they don't need anything from people.

We have someone else who has been paying attention, you are getting closer.

[mickeycrimm]

Unger dumped money on live poker? Not if he wasn't gooned up to the gills. Where did you "hear" that? You must have a private library with that info. I've read most of what has been written (not on forums) vis-a-vis Unger. And I know someone who came up with him in the Catskills when they were both playing cards with the wealthy while working at the resorts. I sat next to the guy and his wife in the Imperial Palace sports book on Sundays for years. They had a booth. I was at the table immediately above and adjacent to them. The wife was wealthy. But I'm sure Mickey knows better, having "heard" it. Anything else you "hear," mickey? You sure you're not "hearing things?"

Well, I'll tell you where I "heard" it. At the Horseshoe. It was a hangout of mine from 1992 until about 2007. I was at the WSOP in 92. It's what gave me the gambling bug. I was originally a poker player until I discovered machines in 1996. But I still continued to play poker after that. I was at every WSOP until I think about 2006 when it moved to the Rio. And I wasn't there just for the few days of the final event. I was there for 5 or six weeks from the first tournament to the last. I played the 10-20, 15-30 and 20-40 holdem cash games. There were also advantage slots all over downtown.

I hob nobbed with the famous players of the day. Played poker with Puggy Pearson and Barbara Enright, to name a few. Yes, there were a lot of Stu Unger stories going around. But they were stories by people that knew him.

It was the poker world, ditz. I was in it....and you weren't.

I seen some things too. Like the time Johnny Chan got a big cup of coke dumped on his head. Barbara Enright making the final table of the main event. Annie duke winning a tournament after a pussy whooped guy let her off the hook in a hand she should have went broke in. And I was there in 2003 when Moneymaker won the main event and changed poker forever.

[redietz]

LOL. You should have introduced yourself. I watched the final table of one WSOP while it was held in the back of Binion's. Couldn't really tell what was going on but watched it anyway. Also watched a bit of the second Ungar title head-to-head held outside of Binion's in the tent. By that time, Ungar's nose was falling off, which is why he wore the shades, really, but everyone knew who he was.

I have not read one single account anywhere that even suggested Ungar lost overall playing poker. Considering how little money was involved and how few tournaments there were in those days, I sincerely doubt that Ungar lost money playing live poker. He lost a fortune betting sports, which everyone knew and even he admitted, and which has been written about in multiple books.

McManus, the author of Positively Fifth Street and a final table participant with Ungar the year he wrote it, did not like Ungar at all. Thought he was a bad look for poker and resembled (if I remember the quote correctly) "an emaciated praying mantis in his chair." He did not mean that as a compliment. But McManus never suggested that Ungar lost money playing live games. In fact, he passed along some stories of how lethal Ungar's eyesight was, pulling a KewlJ in a way. Ungar attended to action at adjacent tables to such a degree that some pros would occasionally ask him, from a table away, if they had made the right move in a cash game.

I likely spent more time in Binion's than you did, mickey, and knew the folks staying there, because many people staying there were camped at the behest of families scattered around the country so they could make the appropriate lay-offs of sports betting money when requested. That's why Binion's had, at the time, arguably the highest sports betting volume in the city until the Mirage opened. Their sports betting limits were as high as any book, at least as posted. And they undoubtedly had higher "un-posted" arrangements with some people.

[accountinquestion]

LOL. You should have introduced yourself. I watched the final table of one WSOP while it was held in the back of Binion's. Couldn't really tell what was going on but watched it anyway. Also watched a bit of the second Ungar title head-to-head held outside of Binion's in the tent. By that time, Ungar's nose was falling off, which is why he wore the shades, really, but everyone knew who he was.

I have not read one single account anywhere that even suggested Ungar lost overall playing poker. Considering how little money was involved and how few tournaments there were in those days, I sincerely doubt that Ungar lost money playing live poker. He lost a fortune betting sports, which everyone knew and even he admitted, and which has been written about in multiple books.

McManus, the author of Positively Fifth Street and a final table participant with Ungar the year he wrote it, did not like Ungar at all. Thought he was a bad look for poker and resembled (if I remember the quote correctly) "an emaciated praying mantis in his chair." He did not mean that as a compliment. But McManus never suggested that Ungar lost money playing live games. In fact, he passed along some stories of how lethal Ungar's eyesight was, pulling a KewlJ in a way. Ungar attended to action at adjacent tables to such a degree that some pros would occasionally ask him, from a table away, if they had made the right move in a cash game.

I likely spent more time in Binion's than you did, mickey, and knew the folks staying there, because many people staying there were camped at the behest of families scattered around the country so they could make the appropriate lay-offs of sports betting money when requested. That's why Binion's had, at the time, arguably the highest sports betting volume in the city until the Mirage opened. Their sports betting limits were as high as any book, at least as posted. And they undoubtedly had higher "un-posted" arrangements with some people.

Redietz went from telling us how he barely fucks with poker and gets off playing $100 daily tournaments at the local casino to being some knowledgeable about cash games of Unger's day. I'll go by Mickey's accounts over Redietz's 100%.

Redietz starting off his posts with LOL. You know thats when he is really feeling threatened.

[redietz]

LOL. You should have introduced yourself. I watched the final table of one WSOP while it was held in the back of Binion's. Couldn't really tell what was going on but watched it anyway. Also watched a bit of the second Ungar title head-to-head held outside of Binion's in the tent. By that time, Ungar's nose was falling off, which is why he wore the shades, really, but everyone knew who he was.

I have not read one single account anywhere that even suggested Ungar lost overall playing poker. Considering how little money was involved and how few tournaments there were in those days, I sincerely doubt that Ungar lost money playing live poker. He lost a fortune betting sports, which everyone knew and even he admitted, and which has been written about in multiple books.

McManus, the author of Positively Fifth Street and a final table participant with Ungar the year he wrote it, did not like Ungar at all. Thought he was a bad look for poker and resembled (if I remember the quote correctly) "an emaciated praying mantis in his chair." He did not mean that as a compliment. But McManus never suggested that Ungar lost money playing live games. In fact, he passed along some stories of how lethal Ungar's eyesight was, pulling a KewlJ in a way. Ungar attended to action at adjacent tables to such a degree that some pros would occasionally ask him, from a table away, if they had made the right move in a cash game.

I likely spent more time in Binion's than you did, mickey, and knew the folks staying there, because many people staying there were camped at the behest of families scattered around the country so they could make the appropriate lay-offs of sports betting money when requested. That's why Binion's had, at the time, arguably the highest sports betting volume in the city until the Mirage opened. Their sports betting limits were as high as any book, at least as posted. And they undoubtedly had higher "un-posted" arrangements with some people.

Redietz went from telling us how he barely fucks with poker and gets off playing $100 daily tournaments at the local casino to being some knowledgeable about cash games of Unger's day. I'll go by Mickey's accounts over Redietz's 100%.

Redietz starting off his posts with LOL. You know thats when he is really feeling threatened.

Indubitably (as opposed to LOL).

1) I have not read (as opposed to "heard") a single account of Ungar getting his ass kicked playing live cash poker. I could, of course, be wrong. I'm sure there may have been a slope -- in other words, the worse he got at the end vis-a-vis coke and everything else, he may have been losing the last year or two of his life, but I haven't read any accounts of him taking a poker beating. I'm trying to remember if I had stayed at the particular place he was found dead. I don't think so (although I may have stayed next door). It was raggedy.

2) I'm sure Todd has a better feel for this topic than either myself or mickey, although I did spend more time in Binion's than anyone on this forum -- or WoV -- or (name a forum). So hopefully Todd chimes in.

3) I guess folks could peek at Wikipedia or something and try to discern who's likely more on top of this.

4) I find it telling that this anonymous account poster thinks mickey's stories somehow are more accurate than mine. I spent 90-100 days in LV for 20+ years. I probably spent a third of that time staying downtown. I certainly spent more time in Binion's than mickey. And...drum roll...I wasn't drinking heavily.

I commend account for his consistent and stellar judgement.

[kewlJ]

. I spent 90-100 days in LV for 20+ years. I probably spent a third of that time staying downtown.

It cracks me up how several times a week, Red goes to his '90-100 days a year in Vegas for 20+ years' line, as if he is saying how dare you not accept something I say.

Well I have spent 340-350+ days a year in Vegas for 16 years now. (allowing for a few weeks travel each year). Someone like Axel wolf spends 330+ days a year for 30+ years. Others probably longer.

There are 10's of thousands of people that spend 90-100 days in Vegas each year. We call them "snowbirds", escaping harsh winters somewhere. Just saying.

[AxelWolf]

. I spent 90-100 days in LV for 20+ years. I probably spent a third of that time staying downtown.

It cracks me up how several times a week, Red goes to his '90-100 days a year in Vegas for 20+ years' line, as if he is saying how dare you not accept something I say.

Well I have spent 340-350+ days a year in Vegas for 16 years now. (allowing for a few weeks travel each year). Someone like Axel wolf spends 330+ days a year for 30+ years. Others probably longer.

There are 10's of thousands of people that spend 90-100 days in Vegas each year. We call them "snowbirds", escaping harsh winters somewhere. Just saying.

I have been in Vegas since 1990 I got here before I was legally old enough to gamble. I played my first +Ev promo when I was 19 years old. I went full-time AP when I was around 22-23 years old. I would guess I have spent 85% of my time in Vagas.

[redietz]

. I spent 90-100 days in LV for 20+ years. I probably spent a third of that time staying downtown.

It cracks me up how several times a week, Red goes to his '90-100 days a year in Vegas for 20+ years' line, as if he is saying how dare you not accept something I say.

Well I have spent 340-350+ days a year in Vegas for 16 years now. (allowing for a few weeks travel each year). Someone like Axel wolf spends 330+ days a year for 30+ years. Others probably longer.

There are 10's of thousands of people that spend 90-100 days in Vegas each year. We call them "snowbirds", escaping harsh winters somewhere. Just saying.

I spent college football seasons in Las Vegas. If that's "snowbirding," I suggest you buy better calendars.

But more pertinent, I spent more time in Binions than anyone on this forum, and probably on the WoV forum. Now, personally, I think Munchkin knew his way around Binion's better than me, but I don't see him on this forum (unless account wants to step up and claim he's Munchkin).

By the way, I wanted to underline something the inestimable account had to say. He suggested that my poor self, having almost never played in a poker tournament costing more than $100, therefore shouldn't be rendering opinions different from his. Now, last I checked, Negreanu said there were as many lifetime tournament overall-money winners as "birds with teeth." So it would seem to me that no self-respecting "AP" should be playing tournament poker and should especially not be playing for any serious amounts. Thus, I am hard pressed to understand how account can be bragging so much on playing negative expectation stuff. Unless...wait for it...he's better than Negreanu. Of course he is -- that's the ticket.