Professional Sportsbetting

[pinchingyourballs]

Since Trump banned transgender "women" from playing women's sports today, I figured I better hustle to Wal-Mart to try on women's clothing before it became illegal to do so. I knew it was a major gamble, so I alerted Bob Nersesian.

While I was trying on a pink sequined body suit, Wal-Mart security grabbed me and forced me into a back room, shoving me into a table. They tore my pantyhose and, after I escaped and flagged a cab while still wearing the bodysuit in question, I realized they had also broken my arm. I went straight to the hospital. Turns out my left arm was broken in two places and my right arm was cut badly from sharp dislodged sequins.

While I was awaiting the final X-rays, Nersesian called me back. I told him I had lost a bad gamble and my sequin counting had gotten me in hot water. He called Wal-Mart brass, who he had on speed dial (a lot of people gamble in Wal-Mart), and he began negotiating my settlement, which will not appear in the press because Wal-Mart avoids publicly prosecuting adult men in ripped pantyhose wearing pink bodysuits and with bloody sequins.

But take my word for it.

Sound like anyone?

Pretty damn good.

[mickeycrimm]

Chapter 10 In Walters' book is called "THE COMPUTER GROUP." In it he gives the history and origins of the computer group and his participation in it.

He stated that the originator of the group was Michael Kent. I found a wiki and articles on Kent. In the 3rd link Walters insisted that Kent be inducted into the Sportsbettors Hall of Fame:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...76DCtMQy2sZi3_

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...oLdHV4gRUsmwBt

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...0vWyz5ccSBO8lV

In his book this is what Walters wrote about Michael Kent:

"The Computer Group was the largest sports betting syndicate in the nation. Mike wrote a computer program that pioneered the use of algorithms and probability theories to predict power-rated numbers in sporting events against the official Vegas line produced by mere mortals who were working with pen and paper. He accounted for every variable imaginable. His creation proved to be a ground breaking formula for wagering on college and professional sports.

During football season he went from betting $2400 a week to betting $50,000 a week. The Computer Group....was winning north of 60% of their bets, earning millions in the process. At times they were betting one hundred games per week."

[Don Perignom]

Status from ESPN Bet:



Doubtful, but does this open the door to another signup bonus? Presumably I still have a long wait because first I have to go inactive, and then later dormant.

[Half Smoke]

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NBA Thursday - first games for both after All Star break - neither team has played since 2/12

shooting may be cold especially on threes

it's a very high total - averaging points made and allowed for both teams I came up with 236


Memphis/Indiana under 249

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[Half Smoke]

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not including pushes Pacers have been under that total in 21 of their last 25 games; Grizzlies in 17 of their last 25

[Half Smoke]

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link is how unders crushed after the NBA All Star Break last year - going 65-21 in the 11 days after - of course no guarantee for the same this year - still pretty interesting

I will be tracking how the unders do on games on the first 11 days back this year

Edit:

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using covers.com I just tracked the previous season from the link - the 2022/2023 season - after the All Star break

I got the unders winning in the first 60 games after the All Star break - 37-23

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https://nypost.com/2024/03/04/bettin...rth-a-fortune/

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[kewlJ]

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link is how unders crushed after the NBA All Star Break last year - going 65-21 in the 11 days after - of course no guarantee for the same this year - still pretty interesting

I will be tracking how the unders do on games on the first 11 days back this year

Edit:

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using covers.com I just tracked the previous season from the link - the 2022/2023 season - after the All Star break

I got the unders winning in the first 60 games after the All Star break - 37-23

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https://nypost.com/2024/03/04/bettin...rth-a-fortune/

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IIRC, Dan Druff spotted a trend similar last year or the year before just about the all-star break. The problem with this kind of trend is that by the time you spot it, you have missed probably a good portion of the trend and when the trend ends, you will not know until you have realized some losses. So it is an after the fact type thing not all that beneficial, unless there is a reason for that trend in the first place. I am not going to guess at a reason, but maybe the 90% of players not involved in the all star game just took 4-5 days off completely with no practice and it took several games to get back in the flow. (You wouldn't think it would take 11 games). I would be more inclined to get on board with that with baseball and hitting and timing ect. But maybe there is some other logical reason.

That is one of the reasons I really like your NFL 1st two weeks trend of more than a decade now. There is a logical reason behind that trend. NFL teams only play 3 pre-season games and starters only play a quarter of one game, if that. (Some teams like Eagles don't play starters at all in preseason games, only organized practices against other teams). So it stands to reason that the better/favored team with better talent, just isn't quite ready to go as they might be a month later and hence all the upsets and underdog covers the first couple weeks.

So any thoughts/guesses as to why NBA totals might be down for 10 games after all-star break?

[mcap]

Last year specifically fouls called were noticeably down in the second half of the season vs the first half, appeared to be a midseason officiating emphasis change. Perhaps it took a little bit for that to be recognized and odds to adjust could be an explanation for why last year was more extreme.

[MDawg]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

[Half Smoke]

I am not going to guess at a reason, but maybe the 90% of players not involved in the all star game just took 4-5 days off completely with no practice
So any thoughts/guesses as to why NBA totals might be down for 10 games after all-star break?

other than what you and I mentioned - no other thoughts - they have been off more than 4-5 days - the 2 teams I picked haven't played since the 12th and they are playing on the 20th
that's 8 days - it could definitely have an impact on their shooting - I doubt that many of them practiced on their days off
did many eat and drink too much on their time off______?________it's possible

but more importantly to me - the 2 seasons tracked - from the link and what I tracked - not including pushes - 65-21 and 37-23 that adds up to be 102-44

that's 65.3%________that's pretty strong - I can't deny it could just be common variance but I tend to doubt it

if a person bet the under on the first 60 games after the break I think the 3 most likely things to happen are - 1. a smallish loss - or 2. a sizeable win - or - 3. a smallish win

I very much doubt the result would a sizeable loss

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[kewlJ]

Last year specifically fouls called were noticeably down in the second half of the season vs the first half, appeared to be a midseason officiating emphasis change. Perhaps it took a little bit for that to be recognized and odds to adjust could be an explanation for why last year was more extreme.

This is the kind of thing I was thinking and looking for.

[redietz]

Last year specifically fouls called were noticeably down in the second half of the season vs the first half, appeared to be a midseason officiating emphasis change. Perhaps it took a little bit for that to be recognized and odds to adjust could be an explanation for why last year was more extreme.

Gentlemen, and I use the term broadly, this is why it behooves one to have a friend or acquaintance who officiates the sports in question --- so that you become aware when private "Points of Emphasis" bulletins are given to officials before and during the seasons. Then you have a heads-up that can lead to a quicker affirmation of adjustments to officiating emphases as they unfold.

Duh.

Yeah, I think "duh" captures it succinctly.

[MDawg]

This dude is a fraud. He just tries to piece together things that he imagines goes on based on a culmination of bits and pieces of stories he pulls from the Internet. Clown world.

[Half Smoke]

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a change in officiating practices last year would not explain the large win for the unders in the year before that that I tracked - 37-23 -61.6% - yes it could be common variance

but I predict the unders will win again this season in the first 60 games after the break

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[mcap]

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a change in officiating practices last year would not explain the large win for the unders in the year before that that I tracked - 37-23 -61.6% - yes it could be common variance

but I predict the unders will win again this season in the first 60 games after the break

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Yes, but it would/could explain the difference between 61.6% in 22-23 and 75.6% in 23-24. Likely is the 75.6% from last year had a real reason (foul data is there) but a one off while the 61.6% rather than the expected 50% was the common variance.

[Half Smoke]

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yes, KJ and mcap and Redietz were correct I believe and I was wrong

I just tracked the 2 seasons before those 2 and got the unders breaking even for 120 games - going 29-31 in one year and 31-29 then next

so, I admit to my error - it isn't my first - won't be my last - apologies to all

see link on changes in officiating after the break


I do still think my original pick - Memphis/Indiana on Thursday under 249 is a good one -



https://www.legalsportsreport.com/17...ing-landscape/

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[mickeycrimm]

Redietz posted a link in another thread that jogged my memory on something. Sportsbetting was legalized in Montana in 2019, and became operational in 2020. However, the legislature left it up to the Governor, a democrat named Bullock, as to whether it would be run by private enterprise or the State Lottery. Bullock chose the Montana Lottery to run it. What has been the effect of government running the enterprise?. Well, take a look at the juicy lines we have on today's NBA games:

[Tasha]

I made a three bet Longshot parlay and won.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/cCfajijn9ApUguci7

[Don Perignom]

What has been the effect of government running the enterprise?. Well, take a look at the juicy lines we have on today's NBA games:

Imagine my shock.

New operators are attempting to circumvent the state-level regulators. Robinhood brokerage tried to offer Super Bowl bets/contracts, but was threatened by the federal regulator (CFTC). I understand they still intend to offer sports coverage. Crypto dot com and Kalshi are already offering sports contracts.

Other operators such as Bettor Edge and Novig are relying on a sweepstakes loophole, but aren't available in all states.

I don't know what the DFS sites are doing. I heard some were reformatting to emulate traditional sports bets. But some individual states have shut them out.

It's very much a developing situation. As always, stay tuned to Vegas Casino Talk for the latest news and information.

[The Boz]

I made a three bet Longshot parlay and won.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/cCfajijn9ApUguci7

You also posted a LOSING ticket right below it betting on 2 of the guys opponents in the “winning” ticket. Do you even understand how stupid that is.

But hey, you now have $11 in the account, you truly are in the big time now retard. Keep posting garbage like this so the few that occasionally defend you see the error of their ways.

Also please post this pic at WoV, without new Mammie stories they need a good laugh.