Originally Posted by redietz View Post
1) When you do estimates of parlay usage for projects like this, you should take into account the disadvantage of using parlays locked into one sportsbook at one point in time. Those disadvantages are not negligible. You are paying a price for using non-optimal numbers, as the vast majority of the time, you are not getting the best of available numbers vis-a-vis shopping at eight or 10 books over time.
Yes, agreed. The question mentioned parlays, so I responded in that context. I don't mix parlays with hedging, as you're never gonna get optimal numbers on all the legs.

This time of year, I typically use my bonus bets on college basketball moneylines. The monthly Caesars bonus bet stays in the back of my mind until I find a good setup. This month, I needed almost three weeks before I finally pulled the trigger. My example of +500/-600 is pretty much a worst-case scenario.

"EV" should not be used when there's a good dose of subjectivity involved, which is usually the case.
I'm not seeing the subjectivity in this instance. Here's the math if I hedge precisely:

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My cash bet is $642.86, and I'm locked into a profit of $107.14. EV is 71.43 as a % of the free play nominal value.

In real life, my risk tolerance is sufficient to dial down a little on the hedge side -- which muddies my EV. But it's certainly not far off from the 71% above.