Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanently banned.
Do NOT send Kewlj any SERIOUS PRIVATE MESSAGES. Kewlj is prone to bringing up PRIVATE MESSAGES on the PUBLIC part of Websites. Do NOT trust Kewlj with any SERIOUS PRIVATE MESSAGES.
Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.
Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.
I am glad to get my full posting rights back!Thank you Dan!
Let's say you have $100 in sportsbook freeplay. It's worth a little less than $50 EV.
Bet all combos on a three team parlay. Bet $12.50 an each of the 8 combos. A three teamer pays 6-1.
You have guaranteed 6*12.50 = $75 return on your freeplay.
Perhaps someone could suggest an alternative play with a higher guaranteed return.
Retards use free bets this way and then wonder why they're promo banned.
I've never tried anything like that, but I agree with JD that it might not be well-received by the sportsbook. When I do anything that looks like hedging, I use a different sportsbook.
I would probably divide the 100 into a bunch of small, unrelated bets at similarly long odds. That way you're likely to get back a good chunk of the free play amount.
From Caesars, I get 150 monthly which must be wagered lump-sum. Being a nit, I always hedge at another book. So my bets will look something like this:
- Caesars $150 free bet at +500 (pays $750 minus cash expended below)
- other book $600 cash bet at -600 (pays net $100)
I think the EV there is close to 75%, but not quite.
I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions)
I know from your past posts that you are knowledgeable about such things. You should post more often. Are you in Nevada?
My example is from the glory days of internet betting, 20-25 years ago. I don't know if it would pass today. There were some wild things allowed by books back then. Dozens of books trying to get established by giving away money.
I live in a non-sportsbetting state so I don't know much about the apps.
Tasha has Hard Rock only in Florida. I would guess she gets a free parlay or a few dollars free play. She doesn't explain her gambling very clearly.
Betting medium or small dogs in parlays is what she should be doing. She bets a small amount and will occasionally win a $100 or so. A big enough win that she would really enjoy it rather than a $3 win that is not very interesting.
She is playing for fun not to be a pro.
Here is another Parlay, a winning Parlay for sure, but more of a "safe," Parlay.These were ALL favorites and not a RISKY bet like ALL Longshots.
https://photos.app.goo.gl/8nhp4RFkGPCWKj4v9
Edit. At this time, it says I only have 0.16 in the Account because I put $10 back in my Bank Account and CURRENTLY am playing a couple of dollars on new bets.![]()
Last edited by Tasha; 02-24-2025 at 07:06 AM.
Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanently banned.
Do NOT send Kewlj any SERIOUS PRIVATE MESSAGES. Kewlj is prone to bringing up PRIVATE MESSAGES on the PUBLIC part of Websites. Do NOT trust Kewlj with any SERIOUS PRIVATE MESSAGES.
Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.
Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.
I am glad to get my full posting rights back!Thank you Dan!
Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanently banned.
Do NOT send Kewlj any SERIOUS PRIVATE MESSAGES. Kewlj is prone to bringing up PRIVATE MESSAGES on the PUBLIC part of Websites. Do NOT trust Kewlj with any SERIOUS PRIVATE MESSAGES.
Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.
Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.
I am glad to get my full posting rights back!Thank you Dan!
That era was a firehose of advantage opportunities. I had a stressful 9-to-5 which limited my gambling time. I opted to concentrate on poker bonuses and casino signup bonuses, but I knew I was missing out on sports gravy.
Yes, I'm in Nevada. I've also given significant action in Arizona. At surface level, Nevada is far inferior because of the primitive apps and lack of promos. Nevada, however, has reasonable vig in many instances, and has been relatively tolerant of my action. I think I've only been limited in a few scenarios, although it's not always clear. Some of the books are small operations that may not want big bets from anyone.
Most of the discussions here involve handicrapping, which I rarely consider. I'm mainly an arb bettor.
I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions)
Two things -- not major points, but to ignore them is inappropriate.
1) When you do estimates of parlay usage for projects like this, you should take into account the disadvantage of using parlays locked into one sportsbook at one point in time. Those disadvantages are not negligible. You are paying a price for using non-optimal numbers, as the vast majority of the time, you are not getting the best of available numbers vis-a-vis shopping at eight or 10 books over time.
2) The gripe I have with the use of the term "EV" applies here. "EV" is supposed to be a precise term grounded in relatively precise estimations of probability, not somebody's ballpark best guess based on their personal experience and how much coffee they drank that day. In other words, either preface the "EV" with the word "subjective" or "my ballpark estimate of the" or something. Please don't plug in the term "EV" as a ballparking term without adopting the pronoun "MY estimate of the 'EV'" or something similar. "EV" should not be used when there's a good dose of subjectivity involved, which is usually the case. The problem from a language perspective is that mathematicians would interpret "EV" as a math term. Gamblers looking for an excuse to gamble use it as a synonym for "myy opinion."
I don't disagree with your use of the bonus strategy for the working off free play, but anyone relying on math to make these decisions should recognize the not-so-hidden cost of doing business via parlays of any kind. You are very rarely getting optimal numbers, and those non-optimal numbers have a cost. Now if you're betting $50 or $100 parlays, no big deal, but if you're dealing with significant amounts of money, it's important to recognize the non-optimal numbers as such.
Lets get to the bottom of this thread. Professional sports betting.
Red, do you consider yourself a professional sports bettor now or for most of the last 30-40 years? I am using the definition of professional as main activity of paid occupation or income. That leaves a little wiggle room as someone could have done taxes on the side or painted houses on the side and still have been a "professional sports bettor" with most of his income coming from sports betting. (not saying that was you)
If you answer yes, that puts you in a class of 1, on this forum, near as I can tell. Mickeycrimm posts podcasts and quotes from other known professional sports bettors that contradict some things you say and do, or do things differently than you did. But they are not on this forum. Many of us on this forum are doing some sports betting, but it is not our main income. We don't consider ourselves professional sports bettors. (It actually was the largest part of my income in 2024, but I don't anticipate that continuing).
So your claim, which I don't ask you to prove, so please don't send me any McClusker reports from 1984,, still has you as singularly the only professional sports bettor on this forum (unless someone else wants to step forward).
So what the fuck are you so bent out of shape about because there are some others on this forum that do some sports betting at a profit, as part of a bigger AP income or even on the side of a non-AP income? What exactly has your feathers all ruffled?![]()
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Yes, agreed. The question mentioned parlays, so I responded in that context. I don't mix parlays with hedging, as you're never gonna get optimal numbers on all the legs.
This time of year, I typically use my bonus bets on college basketball moneylines. The monthly Caesars bonus bet stays in the back of my mind until I find a good setup. This month, I needed almost three weeks before I finally pulled the trigger. My example of +500/-600 is pretty much a worst-case scenario.
I'm not seeing the subjectivity in this instance. Here's the math if I hedge precisely:
My cash bet is $642.86, and I'm locked into a profit of $107.14. EV is 71.43 as a % of the free play nominal value.
In real life, my risk tolerance is sufficient to dial down a little on the hedge side -- which muddies my EV. But it's certainly not far off from the 71% above.
I don't need or really even want the $$$ (I have way, way more than enough and I don't hunger for material possessions)
Lol you're so clueless. We're not talking within the context of mathematicians. Read the wiki on EV and see that a statistical backing of EV is widely accepted. You're just ignorant as fuck.
"good dose of subjectivity". You discount the math because you simply do not understand it - regardless of who you know. lol
Winning sports bettors all over use EV and they understand each other. You're just too ignorant to move on.
Keep repeating your wrong opinion though. Yes, EV can be wrong just like handicrapping. There are clear methodologies that define how people apply on EV. This takes into account all the relevant factors and often the actual estimation will be more solid than yours.
I'd never hire a guy and bet his picks if he didn't use some methodology backing his "picks". Really, that is far more the case with your approach. You're basically projecting but keep repeating yourself ad nauseum.
Like I said, 40 years in the game and still apparently looking for investors is all that needs to be known.
Anyway, I need to just let you go and let you run your thing. I'll stop giving you shit as long as you don't give another wrong lecture on EV.
Beating you up feels good at the time but now I feel dirty. Just drop the EV thing, bub.
Last edited by accountinquestion; 02-24-2025 at 01:37 PM.
There is (A) a historical, statistical definition of "EV" that meant you could justify your estimate with actual statistics. You have (B) a more "gambler-friendly," ego-stroking connotation that refers to somebody deciding subjectively what edge they have without precise math and then assigning an "EV" to it.
We who are "ignorant as fuck" and who have made a living gambling for 40 years usually use "EV" the first way. It keeps us out of trouble.
Those looking for an excuse to gamble and to assign some probability onto events based on their subjective, widely-varying estimates, use the second "definition."
More power to them. LOL. Which definition do you think is preferred by and promoted by sports books?
If you're going to use ego-driven imprecision to excuse bad gambling habits, please refrain from reading my posts. Thank you in advance.
P.S. The thing about the anonymous, alleged expert account, he hasn't done anything, far as I can tell, except occasionally ridden in a car with Todd. While I'm a big fan of being a big fanboy, that hardly qualifies as anything in the world of actual gambling. I mean, be my guest, wax expert while using subjective definitions of "EV." Just don't take any math courses (even those taught by adjuncts) and expect to get away with that. You gotta love somebody who says a math term shouldn't be used "in the context of mathematicians." Jesus Mary and Joseph. What a maroon. God bless us all. Instead, just use it in the context of addicted gamblers looking for a pseudo-rationale to gamble. Yes, much better. Much more moderne.
You're doing exactly what you get incensed that MDawg is doing. You're painting overly rosy, nonsensical, simplistic pictures of "how to win at sports betting" as opposed to "how to win at baccarat."
For example, the whole bonus exploitation schtick is fine...to a degree. When you start recruiting family and friends to vampire bonuses from their names, sports books respond at some point, so you have cut into the opportunities of people betting bigger than you who could use those proportional bonuses to make some real money. You undercut the bigger players' opportunities. It would be the same as $10 coupon clippers invading every 3-2 blackjack table so that eventually there are no 3-2 blackjack tables.
Look, kewlJ(s), you really don't give details, so it's hard to tell if you are actually doing any sensible stuff or not. But, if I remember correctly, I told you years ago that your routine at Oddsmaker.ag would get flagged. It got flagged. You posted here complaining and asking for advice, while not mentioning what happened to you was exactly what I said would happen.
My advice, years earlier, was to not do what you were doing over and over. But God forbid you pass up an "AP" opportunity.
What you have done and are doing sports betting is directly parallel to what MDawg claims to have done and continues to allegedly do at baccarat and blackjack tables...except he occasionally adds a zero.
yap yap yap. You're such a broken record. IDGAF if you think I have no idea what I'm talking about. You can't actually point to what I am saying that is wrong. Again, winning sports bettors ALL over use EV. If you used EV it would be different because you're too clueless.
If you don't use the concept of EV then how do you even know when to not bet something vs bet it? Oh I guess you use EV but you just mentally call it "my subjective opinion is that team A at spread and odds "?? So stupid. 100% you will not address this question because you can't. Thats why you play pickem contests - you don't need to use EV.
I'm sure I took more math classes than you ever did, dimwit. From vector calc and diffeq on down. Just sayin'
I'm guessing any mathematician would not have any issue with this context of using EV. It is "expected value". Otherwise it'd be "value". The E is for EXPECTED. Your whole point is beyond silly.
BTW, me having rode with Todd was only brought up in some weird context that had nothing to do with my credentials. I believe I was just pointing out how I am not "anonymous" like you cling to for dear life. Or perhaps I was giving Todd hints as to who I am. One of the 2.
You on the other hand endlessly drop names/professions to somehow gain credibility. Or play games like talking about yourself in 3rd person to obscure your record.
Mickey Crimm is far more knowledgeable about sports betting than you are at this point. That isn't even subjective at this point. That is objective fact.
In the real world the $$ is what counts. Which you've never done one fucking thing to show you have any of. You get butthurt when people don't jump all over your for $200 in EV. True story.
Anyway to the readers of this thread. Just remember. This dude has been in the game for 40 years and still looks for investors. He can't bs his way out of that one. : )
There is (A) a historical, statistical definition of "EV" that meant you could justify your estimate with actual statistics. You have (B) a more "gambler-friendly," ego-stroking connotation that refers to somebody deciding subjectively what edge they have without precise math and then assigning an "EV" to it.
We who are "ignorant as fuck" and who have made a living gambling for 40 years usually use "EV" the first way. It keeps us out of trouble.
I just reread ditz's post once over again and I realized how stupid he is. He has been arguing against using EV based off statistics this whole time. He argued EV can't be used if derived from stats and has to be precise mathematical odds. That is not stats. Now he's switched it over to stats. Lol. fuckin goof.
Oh NOW it isn't that APs are stealing the opportunities from friends and family via bonuses - it is that APs are stealing opportunities from bigger players.
"so you have cut into the opportunities of people betting bigger than you who could use those proportional bonuses to make some real money." What huh? Are these bigger players not APs? If not then how are they even making money? This is just redietz playing big dog on the internet thinking everyone will listen to him because he's shamelessly consistently wrong.
Give it up Dietz. Now I'm going to respond to any post where you talk about EV and anywhere you're wrong about bonuses.
It is clear you just want to dismiss APs because your schtick is that you're some wise old man been there seen it all. You don't like the concept of APs because it denigrates your nonsense special sauce bs. And while that may be true that you've been there done that (to some degree at least), you're still broke and wrong.
Last edited by accountinquestion; 02-24-2025 at 05:11 PM.
Ridiculous!!! First you are only a bigger player, that is betting bigger because you are betting other people's money. It isn't your money. I could flip that and say your actual "skin" in the game is smaller than mine, therefore YOU are cutting into my opportunities.
BUT that isn't even how it works either. Other players have every right to play just as much as you do. Just as much as I do. Just imagine if I ran around to every $10 table in Las Vegas and yelled and chastised every blackjack player spreading $10-$50 that they were "cutting into my opportunities", and they need to stop playing because I bet bigger than they do. WTF!!
Everyone has just as much right to make money betting sports as you do, Red. You don't have a monopoly on it.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
To put this in context of blackjack, when a good game comes along, that would be a game with better conditions than most, making for higher EV, I prefer to milk that game. Keep it as quiet as I can and milk that game for as long as I can. But sooner or later, other players are going to discover that game. And when they do, they are more likely than I am to hit it hard and get as much as they can for whatever period they can. And when that happens that game and opportunity will disappear. The game probably won't disappear, but the conditions that made it so good will disappear. That opportunity is gone. It may return later, but for that moment, while it was being hit hard, it is gone.
I can't be mad at other players that discovered that game and burned it out. They had every much a right to find it, play it as I do/did. And there have surely been times it has worked the other way. Probably me or my brother finding a game burned it out for others. I am certain that happened with the electronic game last year in different areas. No body has a monopoly on anything Red. Everyone has the same right to every game or opportunity. No APs are moving in on YOUR territory. Get that through your bald head!
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
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