For Half Smoke

[kewlJ]

Unable to respond to your post at WoV, so I wanted to share some thoughts here.

I saw where you are picking the under in the St Francis/Bama State game tonight. I too like the under, but am playing the both the game and half under. As you mentioned unless a game is a blowout 15-20 points or more, there can be 10-15 points scored in the last minute or two. But with a halftime under, in the final 30 seconds there will be exactly 1 possession. Not 5 or 6 and 3 fouls.

Last week I played both Half and game unders in all the conference games in the early part of the week involving the smaller conferences and did really well. Even games that one team appears to be superior, they get really "tight" in these tournament games. It was such a pleasure to watch all those games last week and see a 6-4 type score at the 12 minute break.

First 3 days were very strong, even though unders were low. By Thursday, with bigger conferences and better schools playing, not as strong. Tonight's game with St Francis/Bama State, while not a conference game has that same feel to me. 2 smaller schools, that I expect with start out "tight" (low scoring).

Just some thoughts. Good luck.

BTW, "funny" results over the weekend. Had a day Saturday that I started out 2-15 on my first 17 wagers. OUCH! You start to think "how is this even possible? Ended the day 17-27, so made up some ground. But it did wipe away some winnings from a really good Conference championship week. Also, several of my bigger bets won.

[Half Smoke]

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hey - glad you're doing well

I don't do much handicapping or betting anymore - I like to look for trends

as you can see from the link NBA home dogs are winning at a clip of 52.1% this season so far - almost breaking even against 10/11 odds - to break even requires 52.4% -

I had an idea that home dogs that had a better home record than the fave's away record might have an edge

doing no other handicapping I started tracking on 2/28 - it only gets about 1 play every couple of days - so far it's 11-3 - I will update the record to the end of the season at Wov

I know you did well with the NFL first 2 weeks all underdogs thing - I tracked about 300 pre-season games and found the dogs did even better there - they won 59.5%


I don't wanna post here anymore - just too much negativity


https://www.covers.com/sport/basketb...s/seasontodate

[Half Smoke]

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too late to edit - re the NBA home dogs - should have mentioned the stats are ats - maybe very obvious but still should have mentioned it - also ats with the NFL underdog thing as I know you know

[redietz]

Forty-four wagers in a day?

I will let that speak for itself. Even when the Chinese programmers hit the NCAA totals about 10 years ago, they did not bet 44 games in a day. They sometimes did bet 20-some, which I thought was outrageous, but they won consistently, so what do I know?

I'm an advocate of "bulk betting" when it's called for, but I still have never seen 44 wagers in a day on one league. I don't think a drunken Billy Walters in his youth bet 44 games in a day from one league. I'm not sure a Fred Flintstone-esque Phil Mickelson ever bet 44 games in day from one league, but I'll have to check on that.

Maybe the KewlJ(s) were betting various foreign leagues in addition to the NCAA, but never mentioned the international leagues. That would explain it.




If you actually read the posts on this forum, you run across some fascinating behaviors from alleged professional gamblers. Sometimes they don't realize how outrageous their behaviors actually are, which is more bizarre than the behaviors themselves.

Sorry, was I being "negative?"

Some of this stuff is mind-blowing from a discipline perspective. I guess there could be reasons to fire at 44 games in a day. No-juice specials; deadline for working off a bonus and preferring to look like a degenerate; or a really, really great bulk betting angle, but the KewlJ(s) didn't mention anything like that. Just 44 wagers in a day. The old par for the course.

I've gone NFL seasons with fewer than 44 plays, so this kind of caught my attention. You run into pretty much anything on VCT. I could see the KewlJ(s) and Tasha joining forces.

[kewlJ]

Look Red, if you want to converse with me, stop acting like A Singer/Mdawg type jackass. Aren't you better than this?

What I am doing is all about quantity. It is getting through the rollover requirements as quickly as I can. I don't need to actually win via my picks, I need to not lose too much so as to eat away all the bonus money. I have explained it 50 times, I don't know why you are having so much trouble understanding.

I have anywhere from 30 to almost 100 wagers on a busy Saturday especially during football season when there are hundreds of games. A Saturday during basketball season offers the same opportunity with 60-70 games, plus pro games, plus NHL.

In this particular case the games were both NBA and college games. And it was 44 wagers, not 44 games. That includes half time wagers, totals for games, half time totals, totals for each team. I may have 5-6 wagers on one game.

Right now, I am making my picks by running several different simulations on every game, as well as occasionally tagging along with some 'cappers that I have some confidence in like Druff. So if I run a couple simulations and it points to an over game by a wide margin, I am betting the over on the game, the half, sometimes each teams over.

I am getting through rollover requirements in 6-8 weeks on every sportsbook that I deal with. And moving on to a new cycle.

So you do what you do Red and allow me to do what I do. And I wish you well. Too bad you can't say the same. Instead you are pissed off at anyone, any APs that dare find ways to make money and play at an advantage involving sports betting. You don't fucking own sports betting you goofy bastard.

[redietz]

Look Red, if you want to converse with me, stop acting like A Singer/Mdawg type jackass. Aren't you better than this?

What I am doing is all about quantity. It is getting through the rollover requirements as quickly as I can. I don't need to actually win via my picks, I need to not lose too much so as to eat away all the bonus money. I have explained it 50 times, I don't know why you are having so much trouble understanding.

I have anywhere from 30 to almost 100 wagers on a busy Saturday especially during football season when there are hundreds of games. A Saturday during basketball season offers the same opportunity with 60-70 games, plus pro games, plus NHL.

In this particular case the games were both NBA and college games. And it was 44 wagers, not 44 games. That includes half time wagers, totals for games, half time totals, totals for each team. I may have 5-6 wagers on one game.

Right now, I am making my picks by running several different simulations on every game, as well as occasionally tagging along with some 'cappers that I have some confidence in like Druff. So if I run a couple simulations and it points to an over game by a wide margin, I am betting the over on the game, the half, sometimes each teams over.

I am getting through rollover requirements in 6-8 weeks on every sportsbook that I deal with. And moving on to a new cycle.

So you do what you do Red and allow me to do what I do. And I wish you well. Too bad you can't say the same. Instead you are pissed off at anyone, any APs that dare find ways to make money and play at an advantage involving sports betting. You don't fucking own sports betting you goofy bastard.

I mean, really, mickey, are you buying this? Or are you going to stay blessedly radio silent on this narrative? Todd, you buying this spiel?

I'm waiting to hear if literally anybody buys what the KewlJ(s) write above. Please check in if you think this is what he's doing for beyond $50 a game. I love you, KewlJ(s). You all keep killin' it, baby. At Oddsmaker and everywhere else.

The key, of course, is "moving on to a new cycle." Would that be a bicycle, a tricycle, or a unicycle?

[kewlJ]

I mean, really, mickey, are you buying this? Or are you going to stay blessedly radio silent on this narrative? Todd, you buying this spiel?

I'm waiting to hear if literally anybody buys what the KewlJ(s) write above. Please check in if you think this is what he's doing for beyond $50 a game. I love you, KewlJ(s). You all keep killin' it, baby. At Oddsmaker and everywhere else.

The key, of course, is "moving on to a new cycle." Would that be a bicycle, a tricycle, or a unicycle?

LMAO @ Red. NOT the way he plays so it can't be done. Afterall, there is only ONE way to skin a cat.

It is a form of ignorance. Red doesn't even know what he doesn't know. Think about THAT one.

[mickeycrimm]

Look Red, if you want to converse with me, stop acting like A Singer/Mdawg type jackass. Aren't you better than this?

What I am doing is all about quantity. It is getting through the rollover requirements as quickly as I can. I don't need to actually win via my picks, I need to not lose too much so as to eat away all the bonus money. I have explained it 50 times, I don't know why you are having so much trouble understanding.

I have anywhere from 30 to almost 100 wagers on a busy Saturday especially during football season when there are hundreds of games. A Saturday during basketball season offers the same opportunity with 60-70 games, plus pro games, plus NHL.

In this particular case the games were both NBA and college games. And it was 44 wagers, not 44 games. That includes half time wagers, totals for games, half time totals, totals for each team. I may have 5-6 wagers on one game.

Right now, I am making my picks by running several different simulations on every game, as well as occasionally tagging along with some 'cappers that I have some confidence in like Druff. So if I run a couple simulations and it points to an over game by a wide margin, I am betting the over on the game, the half, sometimes each teams over.

I am getting through rollover requirements in 6-8 weeks on every sportsbook that I deal with. And moving on to a new cycle.

So you do what you do Red and allow me to do what I do. And I wish you well. Too bad you can't say the same. Instead you are pissed off at anyone, any APs that dare find ways to make money and play at an advantage involving sports betting. You don't fucking own sports betting you goofy bastard.

I mean, really, mickey, are you buying this? Or are you going to stay blessedly radio silent on this narrative? Todd, you buying this spiel?

I'm waiting to hear if literally anybody buys what the KewlJ(s) write above. Please check in if you think this is what he's doing for beyond $50 a game. I love you, KewlJ(s). You all keep killin' it, baby. At Oddsmaker and everywhere else.

The key, of course, is "moving on to a new cycle." Would that be a bicycle, a tricycle, or a unicycle?

Ditz, get a clue. When you’ve got the big edge you don’t have to cherry pick games. And time is money. But what would you know. You’re to chickenshit to work rollover money anyway because the boogie man will get you if you do.