Originally Posted by redietz View Post
The interesting aspect of this is that I'm sure poker players reading this feel the correlative vibes. When poker players in hold 'em games have a higher pair versus a lower pair, they win 80% of the time (although they did everything right if they get the other player all-in, they do not win 100% of the time). An AK versus an AQ, considered a dominant hand, wins roughly two-thirds of the time. So the "luck" factor in poker unfolds over the course of a hand in similar ratios to the "luck" component of handicapping unfolding over the course of a three-hour football game. Just an interesting aside, but it helps non-handicappers get a feel for the limits of handicapping.
Professionals call it "variance." Amateurs call it "luck."