Dan Druff's 2025 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Split 'em yesterday, though net loss because the Cards were -131.

Today here's a full game under.

Sale is far better than his current numbers show. His last outing featured a whopping 24 swinging strikes. That's a great sign.

Cincinnati (Abbott) at Atlanta (Sale) - Under 8 +100

[Dan Druff]

5/1
San Francisco (Verlander) vs Colorado (Freeland) - OVER 4.5 -102 - FIRST 5 INNINGS - LOST -1.00

5/2
White Sox (J. Cannon) +199 vs Houston (F. Valdez) - WON +1.99

5/3
Arizona (Pfaaddt) +102 at Philadelphia (Nola) - LOST -1.00

5/4
Colorado (Marquez) at San Francisco (Webb) - Over 7.5 +105 - WON +1.05

5/5
Cincinnati (Singer) +114 at Atlanta (Smith-Shawver) - LOST -1.00
St. Louis (Mikolas) -131 at Pittsburgh (Mlodzinski) - WON +0.76

5/6
Cincinnati (Abbott) at Atlanta (Sale) - Under 8 +100 - WON +1.00

Previous total: 11-5-1 (+5.79 units)
Total 5/1-5/6: 4-3 (+1.80 units)

GRAND TOTAL: 15-8-1 (+7.59 units)

[Dan Druff]

San Francisco (Hicks) -113 at Minnesota (Paddack)

[Dan Druff]

Lost yesterday.


Brady Singer has done a good job for the Reds so far this year. BUT....

The last two outings have been suspect. Two outings ago he only threw 46/92 pitches for strikes. Last outing he struck out only two, and generated just 3 swings-and-misses out of 102 pitches! That's a sign that he's not fooling anyone, and it's just a matter of time before he has a bomb of an outing.

Remember Lance McCullers? After not pitching for all of 2023 and 2024, he's back. His velocity is 2 mph down, and he took 87 pitches to get 11 outs against the lowly White Sox in his first MLB appearance in years.

I trust neither pitcher today, so I'm doing a first-5 over.

Cincinnati (Singer) at Houston (McCullers) - OVER 4 -125 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[theywontpayontuesday]

Well no sweat tonight. There were a few bets I extrapolated including betting the reds and under 4.5 strikeouts for both pitchers which I used in 2 parlays. Of course now the game seems over with, Singer might do well with such a large lead.

[redietz]

The Rockies are setting incompetence records, both with their record and their stats. It was jarring to see a home team getting +286 today and +188 on the run line. I don't remember the last time I saw a home team with numbers like that.

Normally, seeing numbers like that, I would take the home team on principle no matter how bad they are, but I can't pull the trigger on the Rockies. Colorado is next to last in MLB batting average, which is near impossible given their home field, and is last in ERA.

I point this out because I'm not sure I have ever, ever seen a team as statistically bad as the Rockies. I think there may be a stretch to take them, but it's not for awhile and it depends on them getting buried until then. It's rare in these established major league sports to witness a true anomaly, a team so bad it may go in the history books, but the 2025 Rockies may be one. Usually I evaluate MLB teams after 40 games, so it's that time of year, which is why I came to appreciate the Colorado stats.

One of my fantasy staple strategies was to load up with the occasional Rockies/opponent roster, but that has no chance. Not only do the Rockies not hit, the other team often has such gigantic leads that they pull their starters early, so all the advantages of using a roster playing at that elevation go out the window.

[monet]

The Rockies are setting incompetence records, both with their record and their stats. It was jarring to see a home team getting +286 today and +188 on the run line. I don't remember the last time I saw a home team with numbers like that.

Normally, seeing numbers like that, I would take the home team on principle no matter how bad they are, but I can't pull the trigger on the Rockies. Colorado is next to last in MLB batting average, which is near impossible given their home field, and is last in ERA.

I point this out because I'm not sure I have ever, ever seen a team as statistically bad as the Rockies. I think there may be a stretch to take them, but it's not for awhile and it depends on them getting buried until then. It's rare in these established major league sports to witness a true anomaly, a team so bad it may go in the history books, but the 2025 Rockies may be one. Usually I evaluate MLB teams after 40 games, so it's that time of year, which is why I came to appreciate the Colorado stats.

One of my fantasy staple strategies was to load up with the occasional Rockies/opponent roster, but that has no chance. Not only do the Rockies not hit, the other team often has such gigantic leads that they pull their starters early, so all the advantages of using a roster playing at that elevation go out the window.

They will have a 20-game losing streak this season, 100 percent, no doubt.
Bet on it.

[redietz]

The Rockies are setting incompetence records, both with their record and their stats. It was jarring to see a home team getting +286 today and +188 on the run line. I don't remember the last time I saw a home team with numbers like that.

Normally, seeing numbers like that, I would take the home team on principle no matter how bad they are, but I can't pull the trigger on the Rockies. Colorado is next to last in MLB batting average, which is near impossible given their home field, and is last in ERA.

I point this out because I'm not sure I have ever, ever seen a team as statistically bad as the Rockies. I think there may be a stretch to take them, but it's not for awhile and it depends on them getting buried until then. It's rare in these established major league sports to witness a true anomaly, a team so bad it may go in the history books, but the 2025 Rockies may be one. Usually I evaluate MLB teams after 40 games, so it's that time of year, which is why I came to appreciate the Colorado stats.

One of my fantasy staple strategies was to load up with the occasional Rockies/opponent roster, but that has no chance. Not only do the Rockies not hit, the other team often has such gigantic leads that they pull their starters early, so all the advantages of using a roster playing at that elevation go out the window.

They will have a 20-game losing streak this season, 100 percent, no doubt.
Bet on it.

Rockies are actually taking some money, which figured, I guess. Down to +264 at the place I quoted above. That's getting hit fairly hard, which makes some sense. That was a record number for a home team. I didn't play them at their best number, so no sense playing them now. Will be interesting to see how it turns out. Run line stayed the same.

I may be mis-remembering, but I think the first time I saw a run line like this was Dwight Gooden versus the Expos. At least Gooden was at home.

[redietz]

I am very sad. Anyone see the Rockies' score? Geez, I never really bet very much on baseball, but it has been berry, berry good to me in general. I guess I should have pulled the old trigger on that +284 or whatever. Might never see that again for a home squad in my lifetime. I should have fired dinner money on it just for the historicity. It was a +286, now that I check. And +188 on the run line.

Very sad. That kind of sad-sack wager had "Dietz" written all over it.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I am very sad. Anyone see the Rockies' score? Geez, I never really bet very much on baseball, but it has been berry, berry good to me in general. I guess I should have pulled the old trigger on that +284 or whatever. Might never see that again for a home squad in my lifetime. I should have fired dinner money on it just for the historicity. It was a +286, now that I check. And +188 on the run line.

Very sad. That kind of sad-sack wager had "Dietz" written all over it.

I couldn't bet the Rockies as a contrarian to your statement, but I wanted to do so and couldn't feel enough to do so. Perhaps one more sentence from you, I could have, but under the circumstances, I felt you made a nice thesis.

[Dan Druff]

Do you like Paul Skenes? Granted, he plays for a shit team, but do you think he's a good pitcher?

I ask this because today you have the chance to get a whopping +146 on a Skenes start.

The first-5 line is only Pitts +100, but you get as much as +146 if you do the entire game. David Peterson has a WHIP of near 1.4 and isn't the same pitcher he was last year. He's not terrible, but he's off his worst start last time out, and the chickens might be coming home to roost regarding the frequent baserunners allowed.

Skenes hasn't booked a W since April 14. I think today you'll see a dominant performance out of him, and the Pirates will squeak one out against the tough Mets.

Pittsburgh (Skenes) +146 at Mets (D. Peterson)

I won't blame you if you just want Skenes +100 (or +105 on Bovada) for 5 innings though.

NOTE: Sharps are on the other side on this one.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Pittsburgh was a good call and spot on the starting pitcher. I bet a ton and even had Pittsburgh +1000 to cash $1760, shame. During the game I was thinking about how DD mentioned sharps, and at the end, I was thinking how I possibly bet on Pittsburgh as I lost. C'est la vie.

[Dan Druff]

Pittsburgh was a good call and spot on the starting pitcher. I bet a ton and even had Pittsburgh +1000 to cash $1760, shame. During the game I was thinking about how DD mentioned sharps, and at the end, I was thinking how I possibly bet on Pittsburgh as I lost. C'est la vie.

Sorry you lost that. Was painful to watch this one. Between Bart's robbed HR, the bad defense which allowed the 3rd Mets run, and the blown 9th inning spot with 1st and 3rd after tying it... the Pirates were destined to lose it, yet came close anyway.

I've decided I'm done with these road picks, at least for the most part. Road teams just aren't performing well in 2025, and that's been the one black mark on what has otherwise been a good start to my MLB picking season.

Let's look at the Dodgers tonight.

Landon Knack is on the mound tonight. He looked kinda promising last year, but this year he's been quite inconsistent, and has been up and down from the minors. His best start came last time out --- but it was against the Marlins. Aside from a 2-inning stint against the Cubs in Japan, all of his innings have been against bad teams -- Washington, Colorado, Miami.

Today he will face a team which was supposed to be bad, but has been surprisingly competitive thus far. The Sacramento A's are amazingly 21-20, and most notably, they've put up 180 runs -- just 5 fewer than the vaunted Padres (who have played just 1 fewer game). They've hit the ball well lately, in general.

The A's pitching -- which has given up 218 runs -- has been their issue. Jeffrey Springs is one of those pitchers, and he's only had one truly good outing this season -- on May 1 against light-hitting Texas. He's managed to go 5 or 6 in most starts, but has given up 3+ just about every time.

You know where I'm going.

Sacramento (Springs) at Dodgers (Knack) - OVER 5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[theywontpayontuesday]

I went on an amazing run yesterday turning $500 into $5000, so I did what I wanted in order to afford $1200 to vet Pittsburgh. Kept adding in MLs, and of course now I wished I bet more +1.5s. Lost $1700 on the Celtics, I totally regret. What I actually wanted was to take the Knicks when they were down by 10 or more, but I missed the chance. What got me was just past luck betting the Celtics, I didn't know exactly what I wanted and in the end, I was stuck with my original bet -5.5 on a $50 parlay and I didn't and couldn't contradict myself.
As far as road teams, don't give up completely. What I would do is choose what percentage you think this team should Win. If 55% by your guess, then go generate a random number from 1-100, and if the number is 55 or less, than play it. This way, put it in God's hands. Also road teams need a thesis as to why they're performing badly and not just variance. I've decided to only bet your picks now and parlays for boosted profits and just give it up.

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday on the over, albeit in the top of the 5th, so it wasn't a cakewalk. But a W is a W.

Today:

Was looking at Marlins first-5 but saw it's only +143, while the game is +182. Wow! I guess the books see it the way I do... that the Marlins have a fair chance to lead after 5 against Taillon (and with Weathers, who looked good in minors rehab), but their bullpen will probably blow the lead.

So I'm staying away.

But here's a pick I do like.

Who are the worst scoring teams? You'd probably guess Pittsburgh, White Sox, and Rockies as 3 of them, and you'd be right. But the 4th one is the Rangers, whose 22-21 record otherwise masks that sad fact.

Now imagine two of these teams facing each other. You don't have to. Texas/Colorado has resulted in 3 runs and 5 runs, over the last 2 days, respectively.

Today, we have a bad pitcher for Colorado in Antonio Senzatela and a surprisingly effective pitcher for Texas in Pat Corbin.

This is not going to be a first-5. The Rockies cannot score on the road, a longstanding problem which has been worse than ever this year. A full game under gives you the shot of still winning, even if the Rockies pitcher gets bombed early, as sometimes scoring shuts down if one team blasts out to a 7-0 lead early.

In any case, it's hard to turn down an under-9 with the Rockies on the road against a shit offense. I regret passing this up the last two days, when I considered it both times.

Colorado (Senzatela) at Texas (Corbin) - Under 9 -118

[Dan Druff]

Lost on Wednesday


Toronto (Francis) +101 vs Detroit (Flaherty)

Starting 2 min

[Dan Druff]

Been scuffling a bit recently but here's back to the bread and butter -- first 5 overs with 2 lousy pitchers.

And the wind blowing out as a bonus (as much as 16mph)! How nice!


Landon Roupp and Luis Severino have not been good this year, especially over the past few weeks. The chance of either having a dominant outing is low. The chance of one or both getting bombed is not low. What's not to like here?

San Francisco (Roupp) vs Oakland (Severino) - Over 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Lost the above.

Today:

Time for a White Sox home game.

Mainly because Seattle is throwing up a bullpen game, with a good opener but a lousy bulk reliever in Casey Lawrence.

The White Sox is trying out Adrian Houser, who had a 5 ERA in the minors in the Texas system, and was released. However, this was somewhat misleading, as he had a 1.13 WHIP and 37 K in 39 IP.

Worth a shot.

White Sox (Houser) +154 vs Seattle (bullpen)

[theywontpayontuesday]

Lost the above.

Today:

Time for a White Sox home game.

Mainly because Seattle is throwing up a bullpen game, with a good opener but a lousy bulk reliever in Casey Lawrence.

The White Sox is trying out Adrian Houser, who had a 5 ERA in the minors in the Texas system, and was released. However, this was somewhat misleading, as he had a 1.13 WHIP and 37 K in 39 IP.

Worth a shot.

White Sox (Houser) +154 vs Seattle (bullpen)

Luckily I was out of state and didn't want to mess with the new questions about my profession and didnt sports bet for a few days. "Worth a shot", oh my fearless leader, I'm in to gamble if this game ever begins. I couldn't get +154, and took Chicago +150 for $230, Chicago -1.5 +270 for $220. Parlays too, just took Chicago and random selections to qualify for +400s parlay boosts. I'm killing the book tonight, started with only $150 in credits, but they screwed up and gave me $300, then another $100 for depositing $500. I killed it playing the cubs(less apocalypse odds Florida scores 5 in the last 2 innings) -1.5, -2.5 and over 9.5 which already paid thanks to the 6th inning football game score. I've won about 95% of my live bets today and have totally whacked it out of the park.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I kept betting White Sox -1.5 too much. Still an inspiring pick.