Golf Futures

[redietz]

I report this for the historicity. In Jack Nicklaus' prime, he was listed below 9-1 to win a golf tournament once. Tiger Woods was, on one occasion, +450 to win The Masters, and he took money! I mention these because Scottie Scheffler is on virgin ground today. After winning the PGA last week on cruise control, he opened in the range of +220 to +250 to win the Charles Schwab Classic.

And, like Tiger, he has taken serious money! BetOnline has him down to +215. Another offshore, which I will not mention, has dropped him to +190, which is damn near unbelievable. While the field is thin, this is historic.

As I did back in Tiger's heyday, I will scatter some shotgun blasts at "longshots" even though I know next to nothing about golf. The anti-Tiger theme yielded a futures profit, which eventually went into the red two years ago after quite a long drought with no dominant Tiger. Earlier this season, however, Hovland at close to 60-1 got me back into the golfing black lifetime.

My last sec decision was to fire some dinner money versus the big bad Scheffler (who, by the way, is a model for all athletes in terms of demeanor and social skills). Therefore, I have dinner money on Fleetwood (25-1), Matsuyama (35-1) and a flyer on Fowler (125-1).

If you have a fave golfer and want to waste dinner trying to beat Scheffler, be my guest and report it here. Most of us can afford to skip a meal or two anyway.

The point of the post is you are seeing odds to win a golf tournament (+190) that may never be seen again in our lifetimes. Therefore I give you a heads up.

You're welcome.

[redietz]

One other thing. I played a handful of fantasy golf squads on Fanduel. Since rosters employ salary caps, I seriously considered using teams sans Scheffler because it's probably the percentage thing to do. He hogs so much of the salary cap, using him really restricts the bottom of your roster. But you know what? I just couldn't do it. Not for $50. Not for three bucks. Yeah, I'm that tight.

Maybe I'll regret it, given that Scheffler is probably still full of Yuengling and champagne after last week's major, but I just could not make any kind of argument for him not contending.

I just checked. Roughly 65% of the fantasy squads took Scheffler. I consider that low, even though his salary is like an anchor around your neck. Kudos to the 35% of folks who had more courage than me.

[Don Perignom]

Golf is difficult for me because play often starts early on West Coast time, and books may not be aligned in their matchups -- so I can't play books against each other.

At the moment, I see Circa has a tournament matchup:

Scheffler -370
Berger +305

BetOnline has the same matchup, but for round 1 only:

Scheffler -219
Berger +180

The Circa bet on Berger looks interesting.

EDIT: Nothing jumps out at me as being particularly incorrect relative to other books. DraftKings has the tournament matchup at Scheffler -425, Berger +300.

Futures look consistent across books. Scheffler is +240 at best, with the other top contenders in the +2000 to 2500 range. On your specific bets, I didn't find any superior odds.

[Don Perignom]

Round 1 matchup. I don't know anything about this site:

[redietz]

Golf is difficult for me because play often starts early on West Coast time, and books may not be aligned in their matchups -- so I can't play books against each other.

At the moment, I see Circa has a tournament matchup:

Scheffler -370
Berger +305

BetOnline has the same matchup, but for round 1 only:

Scheffler -219
Berger +180

The Circa bet on Berger looks interesting.

EDIT: Nothing jumps out at me as being particularly incorrect relative to other books. DraftKings has the tournament matchup at Scheffler -425, Berger +300.

Futures look consistent across books. Scheffler is +240 at best, with the other top contenders in the +2000 to 2500 range. On your specific bets, I didn't find any superior odds.

The Fleetwood and Fowler odds I took were at BetOnline. Matsuyama I got elsewhere, then Matsuyama crashed at that site down to +2400 or thereabouts. That was site specific, as Matsuyama stayed above 30-1 elsewhere.

[Don Perignom]

The Fleetwood and Fowler odds I took were at BetOnline.

I couldn't find futures at BetOnline. Maybe they were removed because the event is now in progress?

[redietz]

Correct.

You know, you almost have to look to fade Scheffler going forward the rest of the year, but I have no idea what a value number would be. I literally have no idea. I feel like the +180 you quoted above is way low. Is +305 a bargain? I have zero idea. If a guy is +190 to win a tournament against the field, I can't see +300 for an individual going against him as a great bargain. I think there is a disconnect between the odds-to-win versus the field and versus individuals. That +180 is terrible, really.

What I like is the virgin-ness of it all. This is Tiger-Woods-in-heyday stuff. I realize this week's tournament is unusual in that it's really thin at the top, and LIV has siphoned off arguably half (or more than half) of the top 10 players. So there's that. But is +190 a reasonable, human number to win a tournament?

I guess this is the time I mention as a kid in junior tournaments, Scheffler won 40 of 42 or something like that. That is one sick stat.

[Don Perignom]

I think there is a disconnect between the odds-to-win versus the field and versus individuals.

I don't know.

To my eye, futures are distasteful because of the presumably high embedded house edge.

Matchups can have <5% house edge.

[redietz]

For futures, you either (1) really need to know what you're doing in an expert, global way or (2) have a particular angle in which you think the specific future is embedded, in this case, the "Scheffler-is-good-but-he-ain't-God" angle. Always better to be (1) than (2), but nobody is really (1) in more than one sport. Just doesn't happen.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I have incentive to make a few $25 bets, but I usually just bet them randomly. I might make a few more bets on this information. Choking is so easy in golf; I know I was great at making snowmen.

[redietz]

Scheffler eagled the first hole. LOL. He is one tough, gifted bastard. I really like him, just not today. I pity the 35% of people who didn't put him on their fantasy rosters. If I had to use him, and I hate chalk, pretty much you had to use him. My best fantasy entry right now is 235th out of 4000.

Fleetwood played a solid first round. See if Fowler can do anything with this course.

Quick update: Scheffler birdied the second hole. Of course he did.

[Don Perignom]

Scheffler birdied the second hole. Of course he did.

Scheffler was +120 moments ago on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he just bogeyed and slipped to +150.

I want to open a Schwab account, but I'm waiting for a better signup bonus.

[Don Perignom]

Makes the long putts, misses the short ones.

Now -3 thru 11, only one shot back of 2nd place.

+130 to win.

[Don Perignom]

For round 2, I haven't found anything to bet.

The Scheffler/Berger matchup is available at close to breakeven. BetOnline has Scheffler -210. DraftKings has Berger +200.

In the futures, I found JT Poston at +1600. Circa has the NO at -1800.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Scottie Scheffler is -2, tied for 20th, am I wrong? It makes no sense he is the favorite. What am I missing?

[Don Perignom]

It makes no sense he is the favorite. What am I missing?

He's only two shots out of 2nd place. He has four top-5s in his last 5 events. This is a weaker field than any of those, iirc.

I believe the leader only has two career top-50s, and zero top-10s.

It seems reasonable to me that Scheffler is the favorite, but the thesis of the thread is that he shouldn't be overwhelmingly favored.

[redietz]

It makes no sense he is the favorite. What am I missing?

He's only two shots out of 2nd place. He has four top-5s in his last 5 events. This is a weaker field than any of those, iirc.

I believe the leader only has two career top-50s, and zero top-10s.

It seems reasonable to me that Scheffler is the favorite, but the thesis of the thread is that he shouldn't be overwhelmingly favored.

The thesis of the thread (I like the way you said that) is that nobody besides our Lord and Savior should be +190 to win a professional golf tournament. Especially after coming off a major win that, Scheffler being a normal guy, probably featured some serious toasting and 24 hours of hip-hip-hooraying.

Usually golfers don't kill it the following week. But, as we've been saying, the field is really thin and the LIV guys are not here (and they are as good as the PGA guys). And Scheffler is a bad man.

Go, Fowler, go!! LOL. He got to -2 yesterday, then gave back strokes over the last few holes. Today he's off to a hot start. I actually think Fleetwood has a shot at this.

[redietz]

Theywontpay, what you are perceiving is the point of the thread. Scheffler's recent performances are otherworldly, but he's still human. The black hole of the odds associated with him is why I said, "Let's throw away some money on people I think have a shot to win the tournament." The thinking is that if Scheffler were not in the field, who knows what Fleetwood or Matsuyama or Fowler's odds would be. Me personally, I would rather do that than pick somebody to head-to-head try to beat Scheffler.

The other reasons are that I know nothing about golf, I know nothing about how players fit individual courses, and I know nothing about who parties and who doesn't the week after a major. Now what odds should be and historically have been, that I have some limited knowledge regarding. If Jack Nicklaus was less than 9-1 once in his career, I gotta take a stab at beating a +190 guy.

One other semi-stupid note: I have Fowler on every one of my little Fanduel fantasy teams. That's great. I also have Scheffler on them. If he were to miss the cut, I tossed away my fantasy money, as 35% of the people do not have Scheffler because his price was outrageous (it's salary-cap). So I am in the weird position of sort of hoping Scheffler makes the cut.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I don't know anything about golf either. Today when I woke up I noticed Scheffler wasn't even a betting option. Oh so somehow I also bet on Scheffler, so he is now, just reality has set in and he isn't +220 now, oh +1300. I see part of this is book promotions maybe. Bet up to $25, blah, blah blah, if your guy makes top 5 or better, you get so much Mach if you lose. So maybe ? It doesn't make enough sense for $75 in bets across many to jar the odds like they were. I fell for it myself and I threw $50 on Scheffler without thinking about anything but the posted odds.

[Don Perignom]

I fell for it myself and I threw $50 on Scheffler without thinking about anything but the posted odds.

He shot 37 on the* front .

Currently +1800. Live odds are usually juiced more than pregame.

EDIT: *his front. Started on 10. He's already played both par-5s.