I made a stupid bet

[theywontpayontuesday]

Here I'm loving the Angels I had won a lot of money on them until I made the stupid mistake of betting against them Thursday and I wish I kept rolling on them, it would have been a great ride. So I went crazy thinking they're going to win the world series because of their 8 game streak. So I bet the max on them winning the world series and now I realize they get paid the same odds for merely winning the pennant, +20,000 for both. I have to cancel all the bets and bet on the pennant instead. I'm going to contact the book and see how they explain this paying the same +20,000 odds for winning the World Series and +20,000 odds for merely winning the pennant( beating the Yankees). I believe +80,000 odds of them winning the Worls Series is fair. They'll be big dogs to the Dodgers if they can get better pitching.

[redietz]

You need to be much more discerning/careful/intentional when betting. I will be stunned if any book allows you to cancel this. Getting the best odds for anything is your responsibility. Futures odds change, obviously, and the books honor them as printed, so this isn't some kind of parimutuel thing. Half the art form to betting futures is shopping until you drop and getting the best numbers where and when available.

While it's highly unusual, the book can have pennant/WS odds the same. It's up to you to actually read them.

[The Boz]

You need to be much more discerning/careful/intentional when betting. I will be stunned if any book allows you to cancel this. Getting the best odds for anything is your responsibility. Futures odds change, obviously, and the books honor them as printed, so this isn't some kind of parimutuel thing. Half the art form to betting futures is shopping until you drop and getting the best numbers where and when available.

While it's highly unusual, the book can have pennant/WS odds the same. It's up to you to actually read them.

Thanks RED, was going to post the same thing……in my own, less considerate way.

[Don Perignom]

So I bet the max on them winning the world series and now I realize they get paid the same odds for merely winning the pennant, +20,000 for both.

If 20k for the series is bad, 20k for the pennant could be good. Other sportsbooks are in the 8-10k range.

I'm looking at "make playoffs" bets, and I like that both DraftKings and FanDuel are offering yes/no with -110 juice.

Of course you'd be tying your money up, but I see multiple arbs just as I'm looking now:

Brewers +610 (FD yes)/-575 (DK no)
Giants +110 (FD yes)/-105 (DK no)
Padres -115 (DK yes)/+116 (FD no)
Royals +138 (FD yes)/-135 (DK no)

You could bet one side of a pairing only, if you figure out which book is more wrong.

[Don Perignom]

Broadening out to other sportsbooks, I'm finding much wider arbs on the playoffs bets. But the 5-month time lag is very inconvenient, and I'm not sure I have access. In Nevada, Boyd offers most of the FanDuel lines -- but not all of them.

Also, I'd have to be sure of the rules to verify that I'm betting exact opposites. For example, one book says "make the playoffs" while another says "reach the playoffs." I think those are synonyms, but I have to be sure.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Yes I could cancel the bets and I have. Unfortunately the automatic limit to bet is half what I could bet for the world series. There is a note to contact support if you want to bet more, but I haven't had time yet. Apparently lots of money going on LA Angels to make the playoffs, May 22nd was +1500 and now +1100. All I can say is yes I've never bet sports before because it isn't smart unless you know something, so hopefully I'll stop.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Is this irony or what? Lol. My friend just canceled his World series bets and made them +20,000 American League pennant for $75 his limit and I went to do the same and the odds changed from +20,000 to +7500. That's a peach. So I just bet my world series bets again. I was going to be hesitant and not bet to make the playoffs but I want to get these bets in, so I bet +7500 max anyway.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I bet $300 +7500 and now the odds of pennant are +4000 @espn bet.

[theywontpayontuesday]

They're playing the Yankees starting memorial day in a 3 game series. None of this will matter much until my theorized trades come in later for the Angels. This is what I'm betting on, improvement, realization of abilities and later trades to full weaknesses.

[theywontpayontuesday]

All things considered, I'm maxing out my AL west +3000 odds.

[kewlJ]

The Angels. You are playing with us right?

Yes the Angles have won 8 in a row to climb back to .500. That means they were 8 games under .500 before this "streak". Of the 8 games won in a row, 5 were against the A's and Marlins, two pretty bad teams. So you are hanging your hat on a 3 game sweep of the LA Dodgers who are seriously banged up pitching wise right now.

Have you considered: that the Angles team batting average is .228, 13th in the American League out of 15 teams, ahead of only the Texas Rangers and the Chicago white Sox.

That the Angles pitching team ERA is 5.01, 13th in the American league, ahead of only the A's and Orioles.

And That the Angels fielding percentage is 13th in the American league ahead of only Boston and the White Sox.

So the angels are near the bottom in hitting, pitching and fielding. What else is there?

That the Angels run differential is -47, 4th worse in the American League. And the 3 teams worse than them are the 3 teams in LAST place in each division. \

That is a lot of holes to fill come trading deadline.

The Angels will NOT make the world series. The Angels will NOT make the playoffs. The Angels will NOT finish at .500 (where they currently sit). The Angels will battle the A's for LAST place in the American League west and probably the second worse record in the American league behind the White Sox.

There are only a handful of teams that really have a shot at the world series worthy of a wager. Teams that are built for a deep playoff run. In the American League that is the Yankees (and I am not even so sure about them), the Tigers, and Royals. In the National League it is 4-5 teams. The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, with Padres and Diamondbacks having outside chance. Anything else is throwing your money away. And thinking a team is going to pick up multiple pieces at the trade deadline is bonkers. You think teams are just giving away good players for nothing?

[theywontpayontuesday]

I just got a lecture from my other real life friend walking me off the mountain. I certainly accept your criticism and because I am getting views contrary to my own, I am reconsidering. At this point I just let things stay as they are i was just about to say how I was acting on some fallacious stuff. So I peek at other things and not dig any deeper. I've probably made a sucker/self-hysteria bet. It's certainly a bad bet because I made them on my own and not a smart bet. So welcome back KJ, pretend MD and MC aren't even here.

[theywontpayontuesday]

It's been a long time since I watched baseball and I'm just learning today how much things have changed.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Angels is the Outfield won't help this bet.

[MDawg]

Kew will AGAIN return because he's weak, his useless life really has no meaning without this place, and he loves to lie. He also craves the humiliation that comes with it all. A true deplorable in every sense of the word.

[The Boz]

Why we can’t have decent threads and discussions here.

[The Boz]

The Angels. You are playing with us right?

Yes the Angles have won 8 in a row to climb back to .500. That means they were 8 games under .500 before this "streak". Of the 8 games won in a row, 5 were against the A's and Marlins, two pretty bad teams. So you are hanging your hat on a 3 game sweep of the LA Dodgers who are seriously banged up pitching wise right now.

Have you considered: that the Angles team batting average is .228, 13th in the American League out of 15 teams, ahead of only the Texas Rangers and the Chicago white Sox.

That the Angles pitching team ERA is 5.01, 13th in the American league, ahead of only the A's and Orioles.

And That the Angels fielding percentage is 13th in the American league ahead of only Boston and the White Sox.

So the angels are near the bottom in hitting, pitching and fielding. What else is there?

That the Angels run differential is -47, 4th worse in the American League. And the 3 teams worse than them are the 3 teams in LAST place in each division. \

That is a lot of holes to fill come trading deadline.

The Angels will NOT make the world series. The Angels will NOT make the playoffs. The Angels will NOT finish at .500 (where they currently sit). The Angels will battle the A's for LAST place in the American League west and probably the second worse record in the American league behind the White Sox.

There are only a handful of teams that really have a shot at the world series worthy of a wager. Teams that are built for a deep playoff run. In the American League that is the Yankees (and I am not even so sure about them), the Tigers, and Royals. In the National League it is 4-5 teams. The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, with Padres and Diamondbacks having outside chance. Anything else is throwing your money away. And thinking a team is going to pick up multiple pieces at the trade deadline is bonkers. You think teams are just giving away good players for nothing?

Great post KJ!

[kewlJ]

Great post KJ!

Thanks Boz. Only thing is that I forgot about and left the Cubs out of my analysis. The Cubs will/should win the NL central. Should be the division winner with the 3rd best record, so They won't get a bye. But with the hitting they have, they have at least as good a chance as the Diamondbacks and Padres. I put them right with the Mets as maybe the 3rd or 4th best team in the NL. I don't think they have the pitching to win a WS, but, if you are a futures player (which I am not), might be worth a shot at the right odds. definitely better than betting the Angels.

[mickeycrimm]

The Angels. You are playing with us right?

Yes the Angles have won 8 in a row to climb back to .500. That means they were 8 games under .500 before this "streak". Of the 8 games won in a row, 5 were against the A's and Marlins, two pretty bad teams. So you are hanging your hat on a 3 game sweep of the LA Dodgers who are seriously banged up pitching wise right now.

Have you considered: that the Angles team batting average is .228, 13th in the American League out of 15 teams, ahead of only the Texas Rangers and the Chicago white Sox.

That the Angles pitching team ERA is 5.01, 13th in the American league, ahead of only the A's and Orioles.

And That the Angels fielding percentage is 13th in the American league ahead of only Boston and the White Sox.

So the angels are near the bottom in hitting, pitching and fielding. What else is there?

That the Angels run differential is -47, 4th worse in the American League. And the 3 teams worse than them are the 3 teams in LAST place in each division. \

That is a lot of holes to fill come trading deadline.

The Angels will NOT make the world series. The Angels will NOT make the playoffs. The Angels will NOT finish at .500 (where they currently sit). The Angels will battle the A's for LAST place in the American League west and probably the second worse record in the American league behind the White Sox.

There are only a handful of teams that really have a shot at the world series worthy of a wager. Teams that are built for a deep playoff run. In the American League that is the Yankees (and I am not even so sure about them), the Tigers, and Royals. In the National League it is 4-5 teams. The Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, with Padres and Diamondbacks having outside chance. Anything else is throwing your money away. And thinking a team is going to pick up multiple pieces at the trade deadline is bonkers. You think teams are just giving away good players for nothing?

Suckscockontuesdays is almost as stupid as Dumb Perignom.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Yeah this was very foolish a bet altogether. I knew the feeling jumping the gun, but it was too late. They could make the playoffs as a wild card, but not likely until 2026.