Golf Futures

[Don Perignom]

On. The cut line .

Scheffler hasn't missed a cut since August 2022!

[redietz]

On. The cut line .

Scheffler hasn't missed a cut since August 2022!

LOL. And here he comes...like a hurricane. It's a good thing he really, really sucked Day Two. I guess the Yuengling and champagne kicked in for a day after a good Thursday workout, then he got it out of his system.

Scheffler is a piece of work. I guess if you can kick ass after sitting in jail, a little Yuengling and 24 hours of sucking doesn't really bother you much.

[redietz]

I'm 268th in the Fanduel out of 4000 (and climbing with a bullet) and other ballpark standings, all of which cash. If things were to hold steady, the fantasy winnings would just about cover my dinner money losses on Fleetwood, Matsuyama, and Fowler.

[redietz]

I'm 268th in the Fanduel out of 4000 (and climbing with a bullet) and other ballpark standings, all of which cash. If things were to hold steady, the fantasy winnings would just about cover my dinner money losses on Fleetwood, Matsuyama, and Fowler.

Postscript: Fleetwood finished in fourth; a stellar final round would have put him in contention. Scheffler finished tied with him at -8. Fowler was perfectly positioned, but fell apart the final round. Matsuyama also had an awful final round. All of my fantasy teams cashed, which means I actually made enough to eat at Waffle House after deducting the futures losses.

Looking Forward: I finally came to the conclusion that the golfer I wanted to play going forward was Schauffele, because he outperformed his scoring the last few tournaments and looked as solid as anyone not named Scheffler. He also looks absolutely unflappable. However, as often happens when dipping my toe into sports I know nothing about, oddsmakers are ahead of me (or at least in a dead heat). Schauffele is the second choice or co-second choice (after Scheffler) in The Memorial this week, with odds as low as 14-1 some places. I guess I should pat myself on the back for recognizing his good play, or maybe chuckle that I think I noticed something that obviously everyone else has noticed.

In any event, that becomes this week's debate -- whether to take Schauffele or just sprinkle him across a bevy of fantasy squads. The best I see right now is +1600, and I feel like an idiot taking that. Scheffler, meanwhile, is as low as +250 which is asinine as almost all of the top PGA golfers are active this week with the exception of McIlroy. So Scheffler is almost as ridiculously low as last week, which was a record.

[Don Perignom]

In any event, that becomes this week's debate -- whether to take Schauffele or just sprinkle him across a bevy of fantasy squads. The best I see right now is +1600, and I feel like an idiot taking that.

I think Bovada has Schauffele +2000 to win the US Open. I only checked Bodog.

[Don Perignom]

In eight starts at the US Open, Schauffele has seven top-10s and a T14.

[redietz]

In eight starts at the US Open, Schauffele has seven top-10s and a T14.

Schauffele just looks like a threat right now. He comports himself like the Bjorn Borg of golf.

I still can't believe Scheffler is +250 at one place for The Memorial. Even without McIlroy and without the LIV guys, that's pushing it. Those are "We're Not Worthy" odds.

[Don Perignom]

Schauffele just looks like a threat right now. He comports himself like the Bjorn Borg of golf.

I root against all cigar smokers. Xander. Joe Burrow. George Burns.

[redietz]

I gotta say this. Despite the absence of the LIV guys, most of these numbers are short in a somewhat unreasonable way. So the usual criticisms for betting futures likely apply here. I'm not sure if there's any sane way to go after the fact that Scheffler's numbers are ridiculously short. His black-hole presence should elevate other odds more than what we're seeing.

[redietz]

Schauffele just looks like a threat right now. He comports himself like the Bjorn Borg of golf.

I root against all cigar smokers. Xander. Joe Burrow. George Burns.

LOL. A friend of mine is the biggest Joe Burrow fan on the planet. And not such a big fan of the Bengal offensive line.

[Don Perignom]

I'm not sure if there's any sane way to go after the fact that Scheffler's numbers are ridiculously short.

I would think you'd need yes/no betting. IIRC, Circa had yes/no when I looked in, but the Scheffler YES was at the top compared to other books -- so his NO odds were unattractively far into the negative. Hope that makes sense.

[redietz]

Well, relying on Schauffele for Fan Duel fantasy looks like a no go at first glance. Scheffler costs 14K (salary cap is 60K for 6 players). Schauffele is the second most expensive player at 12,100. Morikawa is third at 11,500. I have no idea what to do with that or even what the priorities should be. I don't really want Morikawa or Justin Thomas (fourth), so the question is do I try to shoehorn both Scheffler and Schauffele onto the same teams, or try something else? I'm semi-gagging at the thought, but Scheffler at 14K may be a relative bargain.

I have no brilliant ideas or strategies for this.

[redietz]

ERROR, WILL ROBINSON, ERROR!!!


Yeah, I scouted this week's golf futures and decided on Spieth and Finau. I hate Spieth, so when I settle on the idea that I need to take him, it's probably a good idea. Even though the amounts I'm betting on this stuff (dinner money) are trivial, that is no excuse for being imprecise.

Anyway, I saw Spieth at 54-1 last night on one site as the best-available for those sites posting numbers. I decided to sleep on it. Well, when I woke up. he was 50-1 on the same site, so I pulled the trigger. When I went to survey sites that had just put them up, two sites had Spieth at 55-1. So I slopped it up. Now, the question is, do I just accept that I slopped it up and was non-optimal due to stupidness?

Finau is another situation. He has been overcoming an injury, and at some point he will be dangerous. The question is whether this week is that week. I think 57-1 was enough to pull the trigger on spec.

Finally, I will likely fire on Schauffele despite the fact that his odds pretty much suck everywhere. I think 20-1 was the absolute best I have seen.


Note: Scheffler is currently +280 at BetOnline, which is ridiculous to me, and down to +248 at the same site he got clobbered down to +190 last week. Can't say I have ever seen back-to-back odds like that for an individual in professional golf. So the question becomes, are these once-in-a-lifetime opportunities to go against someone winning a tournament? I simply don't know and am not qualified to have much of an opinion. However, bear in mind that arguably half of the best golfers in the world are LIV, so that's a pretty big issue.

[Don Perignom]

Note: Scheffler is currently +280 at BetOnline, which is ridiculous to me, and down to +248 at the same site he got clobbered down to +190 last week.

BetOnline has very reasonable juice on the Scheffler vs the field bet -- currently Scheffler +285, field -324.

Pinnacle has the same bet at +285/-360.

Circa is +270/-340 (Scheffler yes/no).

[redietz]

I must report the bad with the good. Only this week thus far there ain't no good.

I used Adam Scott on one of my fantasy squads. With three holes to play, he has a negative score. Hard to do. You get half a point for completing a hole. LOL.

Meanwhile, Finau, Schauffele, and Spieth have pretty much all spun their wheels the first round. Ugly stuff. But it's a tough course, and they should make the cut. That's my positive news -- they should make the cut.

Waiting to see how Scheffler finishes up.

Forgot to mention. Roughly 60% of the fantasy players, me included, have Scheffler on their teams despite his hefty price tag. Only 15% or thereabouts have Schauffele despite his being the second most expensive player. Schauffele double bogeyed one hole.

Basically, to this point, I would have done as well picking names out of a hat for both the futures and the fantasy squads.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I just bet $250 +1700 Max Homa. I like the name.

[redietz]

I just bet $250 +1700 Max Homa. I like the name.

LOL. Well, for the longest time my significant other and I referred to Schauffele as Shuffle-uffagus.

Near the end of Round Two, things look remarkably as they did at the end of Round Two last week. My futures golfers are eighth, eleventh, and nineteenth. Somebody needs to make a run. And the fantasy squads would give me my money back if the tournament ended today. And Scheffler, as always, made the cut and hovers in contention.

[redietz]

Update Saturday: Best fantasy entry is up to 130th out of 3500 or so. Should be an entertaining day. Maybe Spieth or Schauffele can get something going. Early on, the course is beating people up.

[redietz]

Mid-Day Saturday: Well, my best fantasy squad is in 100th place out of 3500 with my three best golfers -- Scheffler, Schauffele, and Spieth, yet to tee off. The potential exists for more than dinner money. Or Spieth can argue with his caddie a couple of times and shoot some snowmen. I'm up for anything (Spieth is known for doing what his caddie said not to do and hitting trunks of trees and shit). I have Finau, Spieth, and Schauffele as my futures, so potential exists for a miracle.

Anyway, I hope it stays semi-exciting until tomorrow.

[redietz]

Postscript: With a hole to play, Scheffler is up by four strokes. He has been, as was said of Secretariat, like a great machine. My best future, Spieth, fell apart the final day and is seventh. I think with Rahm and Koepka and DeChambeau among the LIVers, I need to lay off trying to beat Scheffler, at least until the majors. His odds are going to be record-breakingly low, but the cut of the other PGA top 10'ers just isn't good enough to beat him. McIlroy will be overbet each week, and I do not want him versus Scheffler anyway.

So I take my dinner money beating on this tournament and wait. Meanwhile, the fantasy squads cashed five of eight teams, which made up with breakfast money what had been lost on dinner.