3 HR protection

[theywontpayontuesday]

ESPN offers a standing deal if you bet on a team, and they Lose while getting 3 HRs, you get your money back 100% in bonus bets, up to $100. So which teams to bet? Seems like typically the Dodgers and Yankees. Any thoughts?

[theywontpayontuesday]

Dodgers 97 HRS, NYY 95, LAA 80, ARI 80, CHI CUBS 80, Seattle 79, A's 74, BOS 73, DET 73, NYM 68.

[redietz]

Dodgers 97 HRS, NYY 95, LAA 80, ARI 80, CHI CUBS 80, Seattle 79, A's 74, BOS 73, DET 73, NYM 68.

Any road team in Colorado? Just a thought.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Well in order to win the insurance your team needs to Lose, so I insist the odds not be very great of winning in the first place. Since this is not worth much money being limited, I will look at the top ten teams, with high over/unders predicted then look into pitching very briefly. You could be right taking teams -190, but I want to win outright first, insurance comes second. I desire to build a strategy I can make my bet in less than 5 minutes. I'm probably not making much sense.

[redietz]

Well in order to win the insurance your team needs to Lose, so I insist the odds not be very great of winning in the first place. Since this is not worth much money being limited, I will look at the top ten teams, with high over/unders predicted then look into pitching very briefly. You could be right taking teams -190, but I want to win outright first, insurance comes second. I desire to build a strategy I can make my bet in less than 5 minutes. I'm probably not making much sense.

I understand what you're saying.

[theywontpayontuesday]

It could be a good strategy to bet LA Angels, then bet against them if they don't have a nice lead with a run line bet hoping their bullpen will fail them yet again.

[AxelWolf]

Well in order to win the insurance your team needs to Lose, so I insist the odds not be very great of winning in the first place. Since this is not worth much money being limited, I will look at the top ten teams, with high over/unders predicted then look into pitching very briefly. You could be right taking teams -190, but I want to win outright first, insurance comes second. I desire to build a strategy I can make my bet in less than 5 minutes. I'm probably not making much sense.

I understand what you're saying.

A pro bettor such as yourself(it shouldn't matter that sport you are a pro at) should be able to give him an exact formula to calculate the approximate best EV for a loss rebate like this. Sure, there may be selective handicapping, or various other +EV situations that could give you a slightly better edge, but there is a formula that will give you the majority of your equity without any pro picks. Obviously, a longer shot situation is the way to go to maximize EV, but there is a sweet spot tha will give you a majority of your EV that's within reason to hit/reasonable variance. Perhaps +$300 TO $400 is probably within the sweet spot.

[redietz]

Well in order to win the insurance your team needs to Lose, so I insist the odds not be very great of winning in the first place. Since this is not worth much money being limited, I will look at the top ten teams, with high over/unders predicted then look into pitching very briefly. You could be right taking teams -190, but I want to win outright first, insurance comes second. I desire to build a strategy I can make my bet in less than 5 minutes. I'm probably not making much sense.

I understand what you're saying.

A pro bettor such as yourself(it shouldn't matter that sport you are a pro at) should be able to give him an exact formula to calculate the approximate best EV for a loss rebate like this. Sure, there may be selective handicapping, or various other +EV situations that could give you a slightly better edge, but there is a formula that will give you the majority of your equity without any pro picks. Obviously, a longer shot situation is the way to go to maximize EV, but there is a sweet spot tha will give you a majority of your EV that's within reason to hit.

The term "EV" should be restricted to those situations where (1) the events are random and therefore can be calculated via probability theory or at the least (2) where there is a significant historical data base and (a) the rules haven't recently been changed or (b) the personnel involved hasn't recently been changed, either of which would render the data base at best useless and at worst a red herring pointing in incorrect directions.

I don't know how anyone slogs through life thinking they have the mysteries of the universe solved, but evidently the trick is to trot out the term "EV" as a substitute for "Abracadabra" and "my best guess" and "my personal opinion."

Surely doing so provides a wonderful warm feeling inside.

I don't know what's worse -- your arrogance or your lack of awareness of your arrogance. You're one of those guys we call "Triple Gs." God's Gift to Gambling.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Getting 3 home runs and losing is pretty hard because getting 3 home runs is pretty hard. This might equate to the "up by 17 or 20" bet guarantee which doesn't happen very often to have such a lead a Lose. I couldn't get AI to be helpful. AI had to be trained on all the box scores and be able to give an answer. It keeps playing stupid to my questions by mentioning single players to hit 3 home runs and their team lost.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I understand what you're saying.

A pro bettor such as yourself(it shouldn't matter that sport you are a pro at) should be able to give him an exact formula to calculate the approximate best EV for a loss rebate like this. Sure, there may be selective handicapping, or various other +EV situations that could give you a slightly better edge, but there is a formula that will give you the majority of your equity without any pro picks. Obviously, a longer shot situation is the way to go to maximize EV, but there is a sweet spot tha will give you a majority of your EV that's within reason to hit.

The term "EV" should be restricted to those situations where (1) the events are random and therefore can be calculated via probability theory or at the least (2) where there is a significant historical data base and (a) the rules haven't recently been changed or (b) the personnel involved hasn't recently been changed, either of which would render the data base at best useless and at worst a red herring pointing in incorrect directions.

I don't know how anyone slogs through life thinking they have the mysteries of the universe solved, but evidently the trick is to trot out the term "EV" as a substitute for "Abracadabra" and "my best guess" and "my personal opinion."

Surely doing so provides a wonderful warm feeling inside.

I don't know what's worse -- your arrogance or your lack of awareness of your arrogance. You're one of those guys we call "Triple Gs." God's Gift to Gambling.

You really are an idiot saying that and I can't blame people for hating you. The exact same people taking your bets sure as fuck know their odds and they'll fuck you if you prove you know more than them. The second you mentioned fan duel, I instantly lost some respect for you because at least I know you cannot beat fantasy unless you're brilliant, competent and well financed.

[redietz]

A pro bettor such as yourself(it shouldn't matter that sport you are a pro at) should be able to give him an exact formula to calculate the approximate best EV for a loss rebate like this. Sure, there may be selective handicapping, or various other +EV situations that could give you a slightly better edge, but there is a formula that will give you the majority of your equity without any pro picks. Obviously, a longer shot situation is the way to go to maximize EV, but there is a sweet spot tha will give you a majority of your EV that's within reason to hit.

The term "EV" should be restricted to those situations where (1) the events are random and therefore can be calculated via probability theory or at the least (2) where there is a significant historical data base and (a) the rules haven't recently been changed or (b) the personnel involved hasn't recently been changed, either of which would render the data base at best useless and at worst a red herring pointing in incorrect directions.

I don't know how anyone slogs through life thinking they have the mysteries of the universe solved, but evidently the trick is to trot out the term "EV" as a substitute for "Abracadabra" and "my best guess" and "my personal opinion."

Surely doing so provides a wonderful warm feeling inside.

I don't know what's worse -- your arrogance or your lack of awareness of your arrogance. You're one of those guys we call "Triple Gs." God's Gift to Gambling.

You really are an idiot saying that and I can't blame people for hating you. The exact same people taking your bets sure as fuck know their odds and they'll fuck you if you prove you know more than them. The second you mentioned fan duel, I instantly lost some respect for you because at least I know you cannot beat fantasy unless you're brilliant, competent and well financed.

Well, I won't be able to look at myself in the mirror now that I know you've lost respect for me.

I have been very careful to state that what I am doing on Fanduel fantasy is for lunch and dinner money (i.e. not important enough to affect any aspect of life except I do get tired of canned pinto beans on occasion).

It's also curious that you know you cannot beat fantasy unless you're brilliant. Well, first of all, technically I am a genius, but so is Shackleford, so take that with a shaker full of salt.

That's quite an expertise about expertise you have there. The fact is, the people working at FanDuel and Draftkings beat fantasy for years by playing at the others' company after accessing their own data. Not sure how "brilliant" that is. I think the courts ruled it "insider trading." But I digress.

But, and again this shows how little you actually care about truth, justice (and maybe the American way), but you never even asked if I am ahead or behind in fantasy lifetime. You presumed to know something you simply cannot know. Now why you presume things you don't know -- maybe you're arrogant or maybe you're stupid or maybe you're both or maybe kewlJ hijacked your account. LOL.

Well, the fact is, I am behind in fantasy about a thousand dollars if you count just Fanduel and DraftKings. I have been playing on Fanduel since 2012, and all of my losses are there. I am marginally ahead on DraftKings. I was ahead on FanDuel until two years ago.

Now, if you count all fantasy, including the old Sports Fanatic Player Drafts, the old CDM fantasy that was originally sponsored by USA Today, and even the original live prop betting that was featured at Excalibur on special test terminals back in the 90's, I am ahead a couple thousand dollars.

Why do you not know this? Probably because I never mentioned it, and a couple thousand dollars is nothing to brag about. Especially when we're talking about 35 years of doing it. In fact, it could be considered an embarrassing waste of time, which it might indeed be. But I always found it a helpful shortcut to looking at NFL games a certain particular way statistically.

I'm sure there are folks out there beating fantasy right now. If employees of DraftKings could win at FanDuel by accessing their own companies' demographics, and FanDuel employees could win at DraftKings, the stuff is beatable. It's not my thing, but I suspect all of this still goes on. I reviewed some of the legal issues covered in the Philadelphia Inquirer and NY Times, I believe, way back when. Here's my 2021 blog on the matter.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...-goes-bad.html

I corrected you on many issues, and the corrections were free of charge. But, as Woody Harrelson says in "Now You See Me," if you're feeling magnanimous, you can send me a tenner. You know, to help cover my recent dinner losses. The address:

1412 Forrest Dale Lane
Johnson City, TN 37604

Thanks, and have a good day.

[The Boz]

I’m actually shocked RED bothered interacting with this clown.

Everything he posts is pure nonsense along the lines of Monet looking for longshot home runs. He would be better off playing the lottery based on what he has posted here.

[redietz]

I’m actually shocked RED bothered interacting with this clown.

Everything he posts is pure nonsense along the lines of Monet looking for longshot home runs. He would be better off playing the lottery based on what he has posted here.

Well, you know, I am forced to go through many of my late wife's things while prepping to move, including stuff from her last office, and she was a stickler for always walking the dumbest ass student through everything with a kind word and the patience of Job. I don't have many kind words, but I do feel an obligation to explain things...over and over and over.

Anyway, my bad for going on too long about fantasy. It's a minor thing, hard to beat unless you have access to the people's distribution of choices before the events, and pretty easy to beat if you do. That, in a nutshell, was my point.

[monet]

I’m actually shocked RED bothered interacting with this clown.

Everything he posts is pure nonsense along the lines of Monet looking for longshot home runs. He would be better off playing the lottery based on what he has posted here.

Listen Up Benedict Arnold.
I'm the only one to give exact and specific VP information on this site for free.
Where to find the machines, how to play them and what the payback is.
I'm the only person to give away free comp, to players on this site, from my own personal account, with no strings attached, whatsoever.
Only two people on this site giving away free winning sports picks.
Dan Druff and Myself.
I've destroyed NHL Parlays since the creation of the Smart Money Thread.
These facts are undisputable.
What have you done?
Nothing but Rat to Casino Employees about members of VCT.
Fucking Rat Fink Boz.

[The Boz]

I’m actually shocked RED bothered interacting with this clown.

Everything he posts is pure nonsense along the lines of Monet looking for longshot home runs. He would be better off playing the lottery based on what he has posted here.

Listen Up Benedict Arnold.
I'm the only one to give exact and specific VP information on this site for free.
Where to find the machines, how to play them and what the payback is.
I'm the only person to give away free comp, to players on this site, from my own personal account, with no strings attached, whatsoever.
Only two people on this site giving away free winning sports picks.
Dan Druff and Myself.
I've destroyed NHL Parlays since the creation of the Smart Money Thread.
These facts are undisputable.
What have you done?
Nothing but Rat to Casino Employees about members of VCT.
Fucking Rat Fink Boz.

Say his name and he appears.

You LOST your ass overall on hockey. Why not go back on everything you posted, add them up and post the results fat ass? You did get lucky on ONE parlay, or claimed to anyways. Pure LUCK fat FUCK. The only thing you destroy is toilets when your fat ass sits on them.

And yea, you’re right, what have I done in life through hard work and tough life choices?

Take away my investments, my 3 homes across the country, my cars, my upcoming 14 trips in 25 across the world, my health and add 270 pounds and what do we have?

The answer of course is YOU!

I still never forgot how scared you were during Covid and how you dreamed of leaving Nevada some day to move to a farm. Like the loser and dreamer you are, you never did any of it, you just sit on your fat ass, eating garbage, playing video games and waiting to die. True waste of space.

Your online reputation was made in on simple post where you claimed you could have robbed an AP if you wanted to. No one can ever come back from that, and you didn’t. Just a laughingstock for the few here that see your garbage occasionally.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I’m actually shocked RED bothered interacting with this clown.

Everything he posts is pure nonsense along the lines of Monet looking for longshot home runs. He would be better off playing the lottery based on what he has posted here.

Thanks I love you too Bozo.

[theywontpayontuesday]

So the Dodgers have played 70 games and have 90 home runs. That's not very many per game. With a frequency of 1.29 HRs, per game, this means there is a 9.8% chance a game they'll have 3 home runs. This ignores extra innings, so it's sure to be lower.

[theywontpayontuesday]

FYI I don't need to gamble, it was for fun and the thrill but it's over.

[coach belly]

Take away my investments, my 3 homes across the country, my cars, my upcoming 14 trips in 25 across the world

LOL...Phileas Fogg...did you trade your fancy watches and RV in for 2 clown cars and a balloon?

[Don Perignom]

In spite of all of my possessions, and all my wealth, I realized that without you, I was poor. Nothing meant anything to me. My mansion, my villa, my yacht, my string of poloponies!