Dan Druff's 2025 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Squeaked by 1-0. theywontpayyoutuesday, I wouldn't have recommended the -1.5. I didn't have THAT much faith in the White Sox!



We won with a home dog yesterday, let's do it again.

Ignore the 11.46 ERA of rookie Carson Palmquist (not to be confused with Carson Palmer). That's based upon one start. In the minors, he had a 1.14 WHIP and a 45/18 K:BB ratio in 35 innings. The K numbers are very impressive!

Taijuan Walker has always been overrated, and has a deceptively good 2.62 ERA. Ignore that. Most of that was based upon some good early starts, and he's been doing bulk relief the last few weeks. He was one of the worst pitchers in MLB in 2024.

The Rockies on the road are a catastrophe, and while their 5-18 home record is no great shakes, they've always performed well overall at home compared to the moneyline, when facing good teams. This goes back many years.

Palmquist has a much better chance than Walker to throw an unexpected gem today.

If it makes you feel better, the public is going HARD for Philly here, yet the line has moved in the direction of making the Rockies a smaller dog. What does that tell you?

Colorado (Palmquist) +175 vs Philadelphia (Tai. Walker)

[theywontpayontuesday]

I was feeling so high yesterday because everything went perfectly for almost 24 hours winning so many bets from nothing but casino promotional credits and bonus offers for deposits. I bet already my remaining money in the sports book, but too soon on the Rockies I say. I'm not betting against you, just sitting this one out. All my banks have covertly blocked me from depositing from my bank. I'm flip flopping! $300 on CR( only got +170).

[theywontpayontuesday]

$150 CR -1.5 +290 too. Hell could freeze over tonight, it's kind of chilly out. SMILEY FACE.

Actually I decided to cancel this one with no.worries. HAD some other betting opportunities and couldn't use venmo for more money.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Phillies up 6-2. Ouchie, I want my Rockies virginity back lol.

[theywontpayontuesday]

That actually worked out OK because I took +4.5, +6.5, and +5.5 before the bottom of the 9th and net Win $100.

[Dan Druff]

I'm going the ploppy route today.

San Diego (R. Vasquez) -149 vs Miami (R. Weathers)

[theywontpayontuesday]

Doesn't sound very appealing. My rng said yes but I misinterpreted it. I am bowing out this one, and not betting against it.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I actually watched the game, and it was cool the winning run in extra innings was because of a wild pitch, because it's rare to win on one or score on a wild pitch.

[Dan Druff]

Won that SD pick above.

The Sacramento A's were doing better than expected, and even crushed the Dodgers 11-1 in LA.

Then the Dodgers smacked them the next game, and it's been a disaster ever since. The A's are now in a 1-16 slump.

So what am I going to do? Bet on them.

Sacramento (L. Severino) +133 vs Minnesota (J. Ryan)

[theywontpayontuesday]

I did bet the A's after all +5.5 +105 $150.

[Dan Druff]

Lost A's.

Today

Cincinnati (Greene) -131 vs Milwaukee (F. Peralta)

[Dan Druff]

Well, already behind 1-0.

I was a little iffy on Greene given that he's on his 3rd start back from injury and hasn't looked as sharp as he did before. Not a horrible first, but he did give up a leadoff double and an RBI single.

Here's another White Sox home pick. Detroit has a bullpen game today, hence the semi-light dog line. Smith only threw 60 pitches last time out and should feel fresh. Ploppies all on Detroit yet the line has moved to push more bets that direction.

White Sox (S. Smith) +136 vs Detroit (bullpen)

[Dan Druff]

Won both yesterday.

Today:

Two pitchers who have not looked good at all in the last few starts:

Mets (Canning) at Dodgers (Gonsolin) - Over 10 -110

You can get this line on Bovada. It's -113 to -120 everywhere else right now.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I knew this was flashing too good to be true signals, I bet it anyway and got suckered by the first inning. There are 9 innings, but it's looking like failure tonight.

[Dan Druff]

Houston (C. Gordon) -127 at Cleveland (L. Allen)

I'm a sucker for a 20:3 K/BB ratio, which is what Gordon has. Ignore his 5.95 ERA.

[Dan Druff]

Anaheim (Hendricks) +109 vs Seattle (Bry. Miller)

[theywontpayontuesday]

If Houston wins by 2 or more, I'm going to let it ride LAA -1.5 +190.

[monet]

I've been going against the White Sox, Pirates and Rockies kind of hard the last few weeks.
It hasn't been going very well.

[redietz]

I've been going against the White Sox, Pirates and Rockies kind of hard the last few weeks.
It hasn't been going very well.

I have a theory (which I will keep to myself) regarding the Rockies.

However, a piece of advice -- I would avoid going against them when they are on the road for the next 80 games. There is no value in it, and there are technical (if obvious) reasons it's a bad idea. The question is whether it makes sense to actually bet ON them when they are on the road. Not sure I'm entirely on board with that, but betting against them on the road, in my opinion, is a bad idea.

[Dan Druff]

The A's have tempted me several times this year, and I thought I quit them, but they drew me back in.

Tonight they're facing the Angels, who are 31-34 but not as good as that record indicates. More importantly, Soriano got hammered for 7 runs in his last start, and has a 1.59 WHIP. Mitch Spence of the A's is a reliever, but went 5 innings in his first job as a starter last time, and pitched great against a decent Twins team.

I actually think this one is closer to a tossup.

Sacramento (Spence) +148 at Anaheim (J. Soriano)