Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
Originally Posted by redietz View Post
Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

"Once the computer has all the statistics....it can answer questions....When Dallas plays Detroit this week who will win and by how much? The computer gives it's answer. For example, Dallas will win by 7. Now the bettor must check with bookmakers to see if there's a discrepancy between the computer's line and the bookmaker's line. The bigger the discrepancy the more he bets."



redietz, what part of the above statement do you no understand? We can help you with it if you want.

It's your stance on measuring EV that I was interested in. And I wanted to get it on GWAE before they went defunt because they had a wide pro sports bettor audience. Everyone in the gambling world listened to those podcasts. I wanted to see a debate among pro bettors as to the measuring of EV in sports betting. But you've stalled so long that two years have gone by and PFA Radio will not bring on debate about EV in the sports betting world.

I know what your opinion is on it, you've already explained it thoroughly. Nothing you can really add on a podcast. So I won't be calling in because I won't be listening. His shows run late night to early in the morning anyway. He archives the shows on PFA. Maybe sometime down the road, when I have a little time, I'll give it a listen.

I'll be taking my questions elsewhere, to Krack, Fezzik and a host of others. I already know where Walters stands, the computer model does the handicapping for him. It's obvious that you did but did everyone else in the Johnson City Book Club really ignore Walter's computer driven handicapping system? If that's the case then what the hell did you guys talk about, the weather?

Mickey, the problem with your summary is pretty simple. It has to do with tenses and obvious questions. Now, as a courtesy, I will walk everyone through the obviousness of what you are saying.

Mr. Walters did not use a "computer driven system" -- singular. He had roundtables of experts, most of which (but not all) who used "computer driven systems." LOL. Now, I ask you, what are the problems squaring what you are arguing with reality?

Let's walk through this slowly, so civilians have no issue keeping up. First of all, if different people are using different systems, then the "EV" as you want to call it, is different for each system. And they are significantly different for many different reasons, most of which I am sure most people can figure out. So if a dozen different people arrive at a dozen different "EVs," then there is no single "EV." If there is no single "EV," then what you are dealing with isn't random probability calculations, or even probability calculations per se. What you are dealing with is better described as various opinions.

Just because somebody uses college freshman math to make calculations doesn't make those calculations something other than opinions. The difference between flipping coins and trying to calculate real life behaviors is that a hundred different people using random probability theory to arrive at "EV" will all come to pretty much the same "EV" regarding coin flipping or blackjack or video poker. So why do they not all arrive at anything close to the same "EV" for sports betting?

Using the letters "EV" as a substitute for the words "my opinion of the EV" does no one actually betting any favors. It aggrandizes the abilities of the handicapper. It implies a consistency in results that does not really exist. It suggests future results can be determined from past results in a way that is overly optimistic. It can be argued that such an approach is, rather than being helpful, a dangerous path lined with overconfidence based on contexts that may or may not currently apply.

"EV" should be a math term, not something that translates into "my opinion."

Now all of this is pretty obvious. So why do people prefer using the line "the EV is" when they should be saying "I think the EV might be?" Well, the answers to this question are self-evident.



And that's as far as I'll go. That's the opening minute of any 20-minute "EV-for-sports-betting" debunking.
Just skimmed your post. You are a broken record. Once again you should be prefacing your statements with “My opinion is.” And youve voiced that opinion a hundred times.

WALTERS USED A COMPUTER DRIVEN STRATEGY, PERIOD.HE PUBLISHED THE SYSTEM AS A LEGACY. WHEN HE SAID SO CALLED EXPERT HANDICAPPERS COULDNT WIN VERY LONG HE WAS TALKING ABOUT BOB DIETZ TOO.

Your abilty is not on par with your sense of self importance. Stifle yourself.

Makes perfect sense. God bless you, mickey.

For anyone reading this stuff, there's a reason, not hard to figure, why Walters would publish some basics vis-a-vis his NFL (not all sports, not college football, not college hoops) handicapping. It's the same reason I was comfortable discussing NFL handicapping with clients. Walters was even tighter than me informationally in that most of what he discusses in his book features data framed by historical rule changes and therefore of limited validity if anyone tries to apply them today. What he published is almost the opposite of a legacy. It's the stuff people want to read, and it's the stuff that wouldn't hurt Mr. Walters or anyone who trained under him going forward.

All of which, of course, makes complete sense and, given Mr. Walters reputation, is what one would expect.

Have a good one, mickey. Live long and prosper. I will still fly you down to LV if you want to float any theories in person or during a taping. That's my legacy offer to you.

Wrap up: And finally, regarding self-importance, I think a college football specialist who preaches that knowing a specific sport, its players, its coaches, its year-to-year rule changes (sometimes month to month) are important to add to arbitrage and bonuses and middles shooting as a way to win, would probably be considered further down the self-importance scale than people who blithely believe college freshman math and a little savvy are the keys to beating all sports in perpetuity. You know, the Leonardo Da APs of the world. They conquer it all, in a sedan cruising the Dakotas. And then tell you about it on YouTube and the VCT forum, probably because they are so humble.