Talking about baseball

[theywontpayontuesday]

I never thought I could like baseball again, but I do. I'm watching the games and trying to take notice, the shitty D-bags (appropriate nickname) gave up a 4-run lead at home top of the 9th and the Mariners tied it up. Grand slam won it back for the Diamond backs. I want Seattle, Houston and Texas to all fail off course. The Mariners seem like they could have a tough schedule coming. I kind of feel like an idiot not knowing all the baseball games on Amazon prime. I was betting these games in a vacuum. I'm more about being a fan of baseball now and I don't really want to bet too much anymore. I deleted the ESPN app, because it is distracting when I'm out and about.

[DGenBen]

I don’t talk much about baseball, but in certain situations thinking about baseball can be helpful.

[theywontpayontuesday]

First, got home to see the top of the seventh, then forgot to watch, then missed whole game from the 6th. I thought DD was right about the Angels losing, so I looked indirectly to see the game result by looking up mlb AL West standings and now have seen the final score. A 1 run win does nothing for the Angel's run differential which is an indicator of being shitty and unreliable. So the victory is on the books, but a meaningless game because the Angels couldn't score much. As an Angel's fan now, you just don't know what is coming, and there could be surprises either way. It's fun following on, but I don't know if I'll make it if the Angels suck. I wish I bet make the playoffs and the over 71.5 and 72.5 bets, and not so much division bets, because Houston is the one to dethrone or lose.

[theywontpayontuesday]

[QUOTE=DGenBen;197485]I don’t talk much about baseball, but in certain situations thinking about baseball can be helpful.[/QUOTE
Just made me think 2 girls and looking at baseball cards might be a good thing on the to do list. I'll probably just get lazy and have the 2 girls.

[Half Smoke]

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Aaron Judge is having a year that 99.99% of players can only dream about

he's batting .396 - he actually has a shot (though certainly a very remote shot) of being the first player since Ted Williams in 1941 (.406) to bat over .400

and as if that isn't enough - he's leading the league in Runs, Hits, RBIs, BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, rOBA, Rbat+, and Total Bases and IBB

Wow!!!!!


https://www.baseball-reference.com/p...udgeaa01.shtml

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The 2024 White Sox actually set a new record for the most losses in a modern Major League Baseball season, (since 1900) surpassing the previous record held by the 1962 New York Mets. The White Sox finished the 2024 season with 121 losses, compared to the Mets' 120 losses in 1962.

they went 41-121 which is a .253 winning %

the Rockies are currently 12-54 with a .182 winning % - it's still early - but they're on pace to have the worst record ever in the modern era and thus eclipsing the White Sox in horribleness

the White Sox record this year so far is kinna strange - they're almost .500 at home having gone 16-18 but they're a really horrible 7-26 on the road

that's almost as bad as the Rockies who are 6-28 on the road

the White Sox have the most extreme difference between home and away records that I ever recall seeing

googling I found that the 1945 Philadelphia Athletics went 39-35 at home and 13-63 away________amazing



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[theywontpayontuesday]

They do both suck really badly. Mere luck for anyone playing them at this point, sucks to be the ones playing them late in the season if those 3-4 perceived wins might matter more if won before the trade deadline.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Angels did sweep the A's but won 2/3 games by 1 run. They really do suck and have no chance at the playoffs if they don't get rid of one of the lousiest run differentials for potential playoff teams at this point in the season.

[theywontpayontuesday]

23 year old Jay Misiorowski debuted for the Brewers today and kicked ass going 5 innings, 5 strikeouts and 3 walks and 0 hits. Great start and congratulations to the Rockies getting there 13th win today.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Angels playing the Red Sox and it must be very possible this series could be a home run derby.

[kewlJ]

Angels playing the Red Sox and it must be very possible this series could be a home run derby.

14 runs yesterday, but only 2 home runs and both solo shots.

the wind is blowing straight out to Center today, but only 8 mph. I look for games blowing out at 12-14 or more. 8 is better than nothing though and wind blowing out doesn't always mean more homeruns. It can lead to more doubles and things that you wouldn't see that can equate to more runs, if only looking at HRs.

Over/under today is 8. Boston has a good pitcher so I think that is about right. Maybe shade slightly to the over, but I don't see it as a big play. Maybe a small bet for me on over.

Now unrelated, or only mildly related, I am not quite sure what to make of your Angels. Obviously you are a fan of the team, hense my reference to "your" Angles.

I don't think they are that good. but they are hanging in just below .500, coming up on half- way point. The run differential of -50, tells me something is wrong and unsustainable. But they are in a division that I believe the winner won't be that far above .500. Astro currently in first, but I don't even think they will win the division. I think Seattle is probably the best team. But who knows, maybe your angels make a move at the trade deadline and can catch fire with whatever they have and surprise me.

Last month, I started fading 3 teams that were all 6-8 games above .500 that I thought were headed or would be headed south. SF, Minn, and StL. SF made a big trade which changed their situation, so I have stopped fading them. twins are 6-15 since I started fading them. StL hanging about .500 at 10-11 since I started fading them. BUT the good thing is that because these teams were all above (STL still is), often you get the opponent at +130 to +150. So .500 actually works. But I still expect STL to start really fading at some point.

Like you I am a fan of a team, the Phillies. I try not to bet with my heart, but I do have two different futures wagers on Phils to win the division. the wagers were made when they were 4 games and 5.5 games back respectively. They are now up a game and a half. Truth be told in watching both the Phillies and Mets this year, I believe the Mets are a better team. Both good hitting team. Both streaking good hitting teams. Starting pitchers compatible. Mets bullpen far better. maybe something can change at the deadline. But if not I think my Phillies wagers at +240 and +265 are still good wagers.

I will keep an eye on your angles but I really don't think they are going anywhere. maybe they will surprise me.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Phillies at Houston seems like a good game to watch.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Angels playing the Red Sox and it must be very possible this series could be a home run derby.

14 runs yesterday, but only 2 home runs and both solo shots.

the wind is blowing straight out to Center today, but only 8 mph. I look for games blowing out at 12-14 or more. 8 is better than nothing though and wind blowing out doesn't always mean more homeruns. It can lead to more doubles and things that you wouldn't see that can equate to more runs, if only looking at HRs.

Over/under today is 8. Boston has a good pitcher so I think that is about right. Maybe shade slightly to the over, but I don't see it as a big play. Maybe a small bet for me on over.

Now unrelated, or only mildly related, I am not quite sure what to make of your Angels. Obviously you are a fan of the team, hense my reference to "your" Angles.

I don't think they are that good. but they are hanging in just below .500, coming up on half- way point. The run differential of -50, tells me something is wrong and unsustainable. But they are in a division that I believe the winner won't be that far above .500. Astro currently in first, but I don't even think they will win the division. I think Seattle is probably the best team. But who knows, maybe your angels make a move at the trade deadline and can catch fire with whatever they have and surprise me.

Last month, I started fading 3 teams that were all 6-8 games above .500 that I thought were headed or would be headed south. SF, Minn, and StL. SF made a big trade which changed their situation, so I have stopped fading them. twins are 6-15 since I started fading them. StL hanging about .500 at 10-11 since I started fading them. BUT the good thing is that because these teams were all above (STL still is), often you get the opponent at +130 to +150. So .500 actually works. But I still expect STL to start really fading at some point.

Like you I am a fan of a team, the Phillies. I try not to bet with my heart, but I do have two different futures wagers on Phils to win the division. the wagers were made when they were 4 games and 5.5 games back respectively. They are now up a game and a half. Truth be told in watching both the Phillies and Mets this year, I believe the Mets are a better team. Both good hitting team. Both streaking good hitting teams. Starting pitchers compatible. Mets bullpen far better. maybe something can change at the deadline. But if not I think my Phillies wagers at +240 and +265 are still good wagers.

I will keep an eye on your angles but I really don't think they are going anywhere. maybe they will surprise me.

Yeah I was talking out of my ass, just saw the score 3-5 in the first inning, assumed there were some home runs already and assumed the scoring would continue. I of course made those future bets emotionally and too early. Your Phillies I'd be more scared of then the Mets, only because the Mets have had a terrible last 10 games. Nobody likes seeing last 10 1-9 or 2-8 for any team. The Angels need to force the hand of ownership and the players are the only ones that can by winning too many games lately. It's obvious. About Seattle, I got a bad feeling about them watching them play the Angels. Seattle gave me the impression they were overconfident and perhaps in denial of their own ability now.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I didn't intend my comment to be an endorsement to bet anything, was just a comment not based on real facts. KJ, your methodology is fine for your bets, why not post them even if they may seem predictable? I'd only ask you explain your reasoning each time so I can look for a reason to bet with or against you.

[kewlJ]

no, it is fine. We are just having a baseball discussion, which I enjoy.

But anyone watching MLB right now is seeing a ton of runs being scored all around MLB today. And it is no coincidence that half the country is baking in 90 to 100 degree temps. The ball just flies in warmer temps. Last year there was a 6-week period from about this time, end of June to early August that overs were just hitting at better than 60% every day. Even when they started to bump up totals to 9.5, 10, 10.5, overs were still hitting. Maybe we are entering into such a period again this year.

Of course the west coast is one of those places NOT currently baking. temp at Angels game is only projected to be 72 degrees. One of the reasons I am hesitant about jumping on that over.

Do you have MLB network, nopaytuesdays? I love watching the show 'Big Inning' which shows 4 games at a time, jumping all around when balls are jumping like this and I have some overs. They show 4 games, but highlights of every game going on. When the ball is flying like this they have a hard time keeping up.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I do have mlb network atm but I have not explored any commentary shows. I have access to so many games with Prime and Max, I will not continue with MLB network. I came here to say, I have looked at the Mets, they will not win their division and your Phillies will. I looked back at the Mets games and saw a whole bunch of mediocre teams which padded their record. I believe their record against .500 teams is misleading but I haven't checked into it.

[kewlJ]

I hope you are right about the Mets. Next month will tell a lot about a lot of teams with the trade deadline plus how teams navigate injuries.

Phillies desperately need a closing pitcher, but they don't grow on trees and teams that have one and aren't in contention want a high price for one.

[kewlJ]

So the one game definitely NOT going over today is Phillies/Houston. Currently 1-0 in bottom eighth. Conditions in Houston were ripe for an over game, wind blowing out about 9 mph, and high temps in upper 80's, but it was also 2 ground ball pitchers, actually 2 or the top 3 ground ball pitchers in baseball, so the wind conditions weren't going to matter much at least through the first 6 innings when starters were pitching and true to form, it didn't.

[kewlJ]

Tuesday ended up with pretty interesting results for the over/unders. Overall 9 games went over and 6 under, which doesn't sound all that special, but results broke down amazingly along the heatwave hot temp lines, with the ball traveling further in warmer temps.

Of the games in the 3:30/4/5pm time zones, that would be the area of the country effected by the heat wave, 8 of 11 went over and 3 stayed under. And one of those 3 unders was the Phillies/Houston featuring 2 ground ball pitchers. The ball traveling further in warmer temperatures has less effect with ground ball pitchers, who don't give up many fly balls. Pretty hard to hit HR's on the ground.

Then of the 4 games played in California, where temperatures were in the low 70's all stayed under.

The odd game out was in Colorado where it was only in the 70's, but 16 runs were scored. But Colorado is a different beast all together. The ball can fly out there at any temp.

I wish I could say I had the overs in all the hot weather games and under in the 4 California cooler weather games but I didn't. I played 6 games in hot weather winning 5 and passed on all the California games except Boston/Angles where I had half a unit on over despite cooler temps, which lost. So I did pretty well with the hot weather divide, winning 5 and losing 1.5.

They won't all be as easy as Tuesday, but Wed looks to be another hot day for half the country and cooler temps (not quite as cool) remaining in California.

Monday was also a pretty warm day across the eastern half of the U.S., but many games in the warm weather still stayed under, so it doesn't always fall along the hot temperature lines, but I still think it worth a little extra consideration to the temperatures when half the country is in an extreme heat wave.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Congratulations on your wins. Your theory sounds pretty good, but seems like after yesterday lines could creep upward. Angels and Red Sox fighting this afternoon for .500 as either team winning will be .500. Zack Neto might be hurt and if he is, his RBIs will be missed. Rookie C Moore made history single handely winning the game for the Angels yesterday as a rookie with yesterday being his third MLB game.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I looked up the Angels last 40 game record, 23-17, which means their first 39 games 16-23. I cannot tell the run differential of the first 39 and last 40. Most likely positive with a winning recordNeedless to say the Angels have to play .600 baseball from here on out to win their division and not get traded away.