Dan Druff's 2025 MLB picks

[theywontpayontuesday]

I already bet against you before your pick. The As are fully capable but I say LAA for the sweep.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I should disclaim my bet was only $36, so hope it works out for you at this stage top of the 8th.

[Dan Druff]

Last minute:

Yankees (Warren) at Kansas City (Lugo) - Over 4.5 -105 (Bovada) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Ugh... horrible pick. 0 runs in 5.

Today:

Toronto (Gausman) -108 at Philadelphia (Ra. Suarez)

[Dan Druff]

Here are 2 games coming up soon.

One is purely based upon line movement. Everyone is jumping on Arizona because they're just a small favorite against the woeful White Sox, and Ryne Nelson has decent numbers. He's facing a nobody pitcher, and Nelson also pitched well last time out. As you'd expect, the plops are hitting this one hard, yet the line has moved the other way! This is a big red flag, and I'm going with the White Sox here.

Additionally, Jameson Taillon hasn't looked very good lately, and now leads MLB in HR allowed -- 18, and it's not even July yet.

White Sox (Leasure) +106 vs Arizona (R. Nelson)
St. Louis (McGreevy) -101 vs Cubs (Taillon)

[kewlJ]

Additionally, Jameson Taillon hasn't looked very good lately, and now leads MLB in HR allowed -- 18, and it's not even July yet.

White Sox (Leasure) +106 vs Arizona (R. Nelson)
St. Louis (McGreevy) -101 vs Cubs (Taillon)

Well, you split. Almost to the penny.

I didn't bet either because I am currently fading the Cardinals almost every day and even though I didn't fade them today (didn't like the odds), I just can't bet them either. I am convinced they are not as good as their record and will be making a dive below .500. One of the things hindering this strategy so far is that 50% of Cardinal homeruns are multi-run homers. they are among the leaders in that category. And so far that has translated into a lot of runs (almost 5 a game) that has bailed out the mediocre pitching they have. I just don't think that is sustainable.

I also can't bet the White sox at +106. they are a terrible team. They had a little run where they were scoring runs and actually winning some games but now have reverted back to the really bad team they are. I would have to get upwards of +200 to even consider them.

Diamondbacks lost their best player to the IR today with a broken wrist. Don't know the details but that sounds like an injury where he could be out a while. Just curious, did that figure into your pick at all? I know mostly you look at starting pitchers.

[Dan Druff]

Have y'all been watching Nick Martinez?

He started off okay (after pitching well in 2024, as well), but has completely gone into the toilet in June. They took him out of the rotation, let him pop in as a reliever twice, and now he's back to start.

He's at home against a San Diego team which has thus far underperformed offensively, but is now mostly healthy and can rack up runs quickly.

Cease has had a disappointing year, but looked good last time out, and looked excellent three starts ago. His only bad start in the past 2 months was one against the Dodgers recently, which can be forgiven, given their offensive talent.

San Diego (Cease) -125 at Cincinnati (N. Martinez) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Bonus pick if it's too late to fire on above:

Cubs (Horton) at Houston (Walter) - Under 8 +100

[theywontpayontuesday]

Have y'all been watching Nick Martinez?

He started off okay (after pitching well in 2024, as well), but has completely gone into the toilet in June. They took him out of the rotation, let him pop in as a reliever twice, and now he's back to start.

He's at home against a San Diego team which has thus far underperformed offensively, but is now mostly healthy and can rack up runs quickly.

Cease has had a disappointing year, but looked good last time out, and looked excellent three starts ago. His only bad start in the past 2 months was one against the Dodgers recently, which can be forgiven, given their offensive talent.

San Diego (Cease) -125 at Cincinnati (N. Martinez) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

No wonder the Padres are losing 3-0, their pitcher is D. Cease(d).

[theywontpayontuesday]

Oops

[Dan Druff]

Totally overlooked the Phillies yesterday, who were a nice dog in a bullpen game against Bryce Elder. Would've been an easy win. Instead got crushed 0-2. Ouch.

Let's try two totals again today:

Philadelphia (Luzardo) at Atlanta (Schwellenbach) - Under 4 -110 FIRST 5 INNINGS
Cubs (Rea) at Houston (McCullers) - Over 4.5 -115 FIRST 5 INNINGS

Rea has been bombed in 5 of his last 7 starts, including his last one. McCullers, who hadn't pitched in 2023 or 2024, came back and was not very effective, then got injured. He actually skipped a rehab assignment and is going right back out today!

Luzardo got crushed for 20 ER (yes, 20) over 2 starts about 3-4 weeks ago, but seems to have settled down. 2 of his last 3 games were great, and against good opponents -- the Mets and the Cubs.

Schwellenbach has struck out 8-11 batters in 4 of his last 6 starts. His only bad start this year was a 6-run shelling by the powerful Dodgers on May 3.

[Dan Druff]

Won first two.

Last minute:

Washington (Soroka) at Angels (Hendricks) - OVER 4.5 -120 FIRST 5 INNINGS

[theywontpayontuesday]

BTW didn't mean for "oops" to actually be a comment. I was thinking about posting when I was abiding and typed in "vegascasinotalk.com" to get here and it was what I originally posted. I thought I was typing into Google to get here as I normally do. So stupid .