Talking about baseball

[theywontpayontuesday]

So I'm a little nervous making these bets, it is against my principles canceling a lot of my Houston World Series bets to bet on the White Sox today. I even canceled $200 more to bet the under 8.5 -130. Great news on a small scale, I was offered the rest of the year to get MLB for $47. On the positive side if I hit a grand slam with these bets, the money will be bet back on Houston and I'll have enough credit to see if I will be maxed out yet. I won't cancel any more Houston bets again, that is like a sin. I must admit some buyers's remorse very heavily after they lost 2 to the shit stain Guardians. Hopefully the irony will be on my side because the Guardians broke a 10 game losing streak beating the Astros. I'm a little weary the odds will come back to Houston +1200, but as much afraid they'll come down to +750. I am betting against the Dodgers taking Milwaukee, a team I feel is very underrated.

I keep forgetting that your wager is for Angels to win the world series and not just make the playoffs or win division as mine is. No offense, but that IS a tremendous longshot. You knew that though.

But IF the angels were to win 60% of games, which also seems pretty unlikely to me (barring infusion of a couple new players), they could get into the playoffs either winning the division or wild card.

And getting in is all you need with the MLB format. I think the format actually works against the 4 teams (2 in each league), that win their divisions with the best record and get a bye. It works against them in two ways. 1st, the 5 game format, if the away team wins one of those first two games, they are then in the drivers seat, not the higher ranked team. And 2nd, a week layoff is not good, especially for teams that clinched division early and already rested players for a week. It is like 2 weeks of, which throws off timing of both batters and pitchers.

And results in recent years have proven this out. 2024, Phils had a bye and lost the division series to the Mets. In 2023, astonishingly 3 of the 4 teams that got a bye, lost their first series. So I just don't see the huge advantage to winning divisions with one of the best records and sitting around for a week.

I have various bets on the Angels, to make the playoffs, to win their division and to win the pennant as well as the World Series. I view all those bets as dead money now. Houston I have been betting heavily on, and Im tempted to bet .Milwaukee at +4000 for my National league hopeful.

[theywontpayontuesday]

HOUSER, the starting pitcher for the White Sox threw up after the first inning. He is looking terrible so far with 0 strikeouts.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Ooh, scary game. Failed the -1.5 and the -2.5, won on the MLs and under for a $400 profit. I bet $300 on the Brewers +4000 to win the World Series, but haven't replaced my $700 Astros WS bets yet.

Chicago really sacked offensively and they had so many called first strikes. I bet an extra $50 +450 Brewers during the top of the 9th and the Brewers had 4 hits in a row to tie this as I write this.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Brewers are baaaaad aaaassss. �� They beat the Didgers in the bottom of the 10th. Those hitters know they can hit and score and the Brewers closer was a boss. I put $1000 on them to win the World Series +4000. Feels like a steal of a deal right now.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Won another parlay, had Phillies ML, over 9.5 and Lazaro over 5.5 KS and he had 7. The Phillies are up 11-0. If Rafael Devers comes back up and hits a HR, my partner will win $15,000 hitting 2 parlays. Devers hasn't hit a HR since June 21st.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Devers was already out of the game and I didnt know this.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Ha tonight Brandob Pfaadt pitching for Arizona against Dylan Cease (D. Ceased) pitching for San Diego. Based on Pfaadt, I'd take San Diego by reflex.

[kewlJ]

Ha tonight Brandob Pfaadt pitching for Arizona against Dylan Cease (D. Ceased) pitching for San Diego. Based on Pfaadt, I'd take San Diego by reflex.

I reluctantly have the over in the Padres game. Padres are one of the teams I usually try to stay away from in betting overs, because they just don't score much and especially at Petco, where the ball doesn't carry well at night. BUT these two pitchers look like an Over to me. I have two bets, one at over 7.5, The second at over 8. Actually I have the over in 14 of 15 games today, the exception, KC/Pittsburgh, which I didn't bet.

Unrelated, Sandy Alcantara (marlins), who won the Cy Young a couple years ago, just looks terrible. He is coming off Tommy John surgery, and I like to give pitchers a full year back before judging them, but usually a half year back you at least begin to see glimpses of the pitchers they previously were. Alcantara is showing nothing so far. I have been fading him, but still sort of rooting for him. I don't like to see someone as great as he was, have their career ended by injury and not be able to come back.

[kewlJ]

A couple of games still going, but they are already over the totals. So with Mets rainout, going to be a 9-4 day for overs (for me). Going to keep beating this horse until something gives.

And Sutter Park in Sacramento continues to be the gift that keeps giving. I haven't figured out exactly what is going on there. Park dementions are fairly normal for big league parks. It is at sea level (12 feet above) so that isn't an issue. 80 miles inland from the ocean, so it shouldn't be an ocean breeze. But somehow wind is blowing out to dead center everyday and ball jumps out of the park. I will keep hitting it.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Chicago game being just 1 run away really hurt. Had a $50 parlay which would have paid $950 for just 1 more runs. The Brewers came down to +3500. Lots of teams wanting Ward from LAA including the Brewers. Im kind of burned out on betting again. I can't even bet if I want to all my banks debit card deposits not going through lately and I dont know why.

[kewlJ]

Looking like a terrible day for overs. Now just hoping to avoid a complete wipe out. There were some pitching matchups that should have produced a lot of runs but just didn't happen.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Looking like a terrible day for overs. Now just hoping to avoid a complete wipe out. There were some pitching matchup that should have produced a lot of fun but just didn't happen.,

Losing isn't fun. From home to the casino lost $1000, then lost $1500 at AP. We don't always know if we're still right.

[kewlJ]

Overs finished 3-5 with a push. Looked like it might be much worse for a good part of the afternoon/evening, but a couple games (Yankees and Cardinals) scored a bunch of runs late to avoid a worse day.

[MDawg]

But if I am to be honest, I think you highly fudge on your stories, and I don't know why. It's beyond leaving things out or adding things to protect yourself.

[theywontpayontuesday]

But if I am to be honest, I think you highly fudge on your stories, and I don't know why. It's beyond leaving things out or adding things to protect yourself.

You are not talking about baseball. Please go back to your mansion at true passages and talk to yourself with multiple accounts.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Well I didn't quite know how bad the Brewers have been in the playoffs up until now. Still always a time for everything, the Brewers do have some fire, and not that it ever helped them before.
I just noticed how I jump the gun after every team sweeps the Dodgers. The Astros look like they're going to lose 4 in a row after sweeping the Dodgers and the Brewers are winning handily today to at least not solidify the fall later. The Astros have lost some hitters and it's showing.

[kewlJ]

After yesterday's minor hiccup, Overs went 11-5 today. I laid off 3 games, 2 with top pitchers Scubal and Skenes, plus SD where the ball doesn't carry at night. One of those three went over, so my personal total was 10-3 on the overs for the day.

I don't get how nobody seems to get and be talking about the overs hitting for past couple weeks, including the odds makers. But I will keep hitting them until something changes. Next week's all-star break will probably be just the thing that interrupts this good flow.

[kewlJ]

Saturday looks like a more difficult day for overs, even with balls carrying well right now. Some really good pitching matchups that I will be laying off of. At first glance, probably laying off cubs-yankees, Dodgers-Giants, Astros-houston, Phillies-Padres.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Speaking about baseball, the Brewer's Misiorowski has made the all star game after 5 starts as a rookie. He I see is the favorite(-220) to win ROY. 103 mph fastball, whoa. I had bet the Brewers +4000 world series, the odds had fallen to +3500 and today +2500. My cash out values are only what I paid and not more yet. It would be sweet to have a Brewers Astros World Series for me.

[theywontpayontuesday]

After yesterday's minor hiccup, Overs went 11-5 today. I laid off 3 games, 2 with top pitchers Scubal and Skenes, plus SD where the ball doesn't carry at night. One of those three went over, so my personal total was 10-3 on the overs for the day.

I don't get how nobody seems to get and be talking about the overs hitting for past couple weeks, including the odds makers. But I will keep hitting them until something changes. Next week's all-star break will probably be just the thing that interrupts this good flow.

Congratulations, wish I had shadowed those bets.