Blue Jays improved odds of winning the World Series +1400.
Blue Jays improved odds of winning the World Series +1400.
Luck. Phillies tie it and caminero got a second hit. Need them both to win for large parlays.
Well the Red Sox lost and the Rays are down in the bottom of the 9th. Sucks on parlays getting the hard parts then mismanagement and bad pitching loses your sure thing. That's baseball, had a great winning day and added plenty to my futures bets. Made a new bet on Schwarber as HR king, long shot at +1600 but he has been on fire.
Well the Red Sox lost and the Rays are down in the bottom of the 9th. Sucks on parlays getting the hard parts then mismanagement and bad pitching loses your sure thing. That's baseball, had a great winning day and added plenty to my futures bets. Made a new bet on Schwarber as HR king, long shot at +1600 but he has been on fire.
Both the Phillies and Red Sox showed playoff potential to get in and get out. They will not make the World Series. I will not have any bets on them. Im not interested in a 4th ticket to win the world series. I've won quite a lot this month, my winnings piling up inside these future bets. They count them all as losses. Even though the odds may come down, Im actually surprised Im not seeing many increases in cash out values. I've only seen changes in best season record.
Overs went 8-7 today. I bet them all. The overs trend has cooled off a bit over last few days. But there is a heat wave going to cover much of the country, especially each coast and middle of country, for the next number of days. Thursday is a light schedule with only 5 games, but I am expecting lots of runs over the next 3-4 days.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I couldn't actually see the Red Sox game, no wonder I decided not to pay $16 a month but $2000 in bets became 0. They would have paid a lot more than double. I had all the pieces and those guys getting home runs couldn't get 2.
Schwarber will cool off. These HR hitters are very streaky. Ohtani went 3 weeks with no HR's, and now has hit one in 5 straight games. Judge hits them in bunches as well.Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
As a Phillies fan, I root for them every year, no matter what. Don't always bet them, but I root for them. For the last 4-5 years, which has included a WS appearance and NJCS appearance, I have had concerns because the Phillies are basically a hitting team that relies heavily on the HR. In the summer months they are all crushing the ball. Come October it is 35-40 degree during night playoff games in Philly and HRs are harder to come by.
I think the way you win in October is with pitching. And the Phillies have 3 real good starting pitchers right now. Zach wheeler has been cy young caliber for several years (might actually win it this year. I don't even know where Christopher Sanchez came from. I thought he was a flash in the pan last year, but he is the real deal. Going to be an ace in this league for years. I hope the Phillies can keep him. And Suarez, is finally returning to form after missing most of last year with an injury.
3 strong starters and you can go al long way in the playoffs. Of course, bullpen is an issue. I think their bullpen guys are good enough for 7th and 8th inning. They need a closer. A legit closer. I don't know if they can get one at the trade deadline, but if they do, don't be so fast to write them off. They have all the pieces.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I was picking some parlays and accidentally picked under 8.5 in the Padres St. Louis game. Im going with that one heavy as probably my only bet tomorrow. I like the Blue Jays, I like the Orioles and I like the Astros and like the Angels. I might bet an additional $100 on each of these games and not even watch them or make any more bets.
I probably shouldn't. Im happy with the bets I've made on the Brewers and Astros but they're still both considered middle of the pack. It's hard to stop betting them. I also have a strange desire to simply bet all I can to be maxed out on my bets, which is now low $2000s for Brewers NL pennant and Astros World Series. It's a lot of money to lose use of for sure if things go badly. Im seeing great things ahead, others seeing value I see now. I just dont see other teams getting that much better from trades coming and mostly see them failing (teams Im not betting). I want to bet as much as I can to quit on later and hopefully at good percentages. We'll see that in locked up number one seeds I expect my Brewers and Astros to get. Ill bet them and if they keep winning Ill bet more.Originally Posted by kewlJSchwarber will cool off. These HR hitters are very streaky. Ohtani went 3 weeks with no HR's, and now has hit one in 5 straight games. Judge hits them in bunches as well.Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
As a Phillies fan, I root for them every year, no matter what. Don't always bet them, but I root for them. For the last 4-5 years, which has included a WS appearance and NJCS appearance, I have had concerns because the Phillies are basically a hitting team that relies heavily on the HR. In the summer months they are all crushing the ball. Come October it is 35-40 degree during night playoff games in Philly and HRs are harder to come by.
I think the way you win in October is with pitching. And the Phillies have 3 real good starting pitchers right now. Zach wheeler has been cy young caliber for several years (might actually win it this year. I don't even know where Christopher Sanchez came from. I thought he was a flash in the pan last year, but he is the real deal. Going to be an ace in this league for years. I hope the Phillies can keep him. And Suarez, is finally returning to form after missing most of last year with an injury.
3 strong starters and you can go al long way in the playoffs. Of course, bullpen is an issue. I think their bullpen guys are good enough for 7th and 8th inning. They need a closer. A legit closer. I don't know if they can get one at the trade deadline, but if they do, don't be so fast to write them off. They have all the pieces.
If you are betting overs as I am right now, The Padres are a very tough team to bet. They just don't score many runs, particularly right now. Royals are another team that doesn't score a lot, despite that they did in Chicago this week. Often I will just skip betting the over with these teams, especially if they or their opponent has a decent pitcher pitching.Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
But I actually like the Cardinals-padres game to go over tomorrow. the total is a low 8, with temperatures of 94 degrees and wind blowing out to left field (will double check wind closer to game time). Darvish ERA is above 6 and Sonny Grey is above 4, despite a decent w-l record. This means the Cardinals usually score a lot of runs for him, because he gives up some. Add in the Cardinals bullpen is bad and I really like the over in this game, even though SD has screwed me often.
On the down side, Sonny Greys splits are better at home, but there is enough other factors I think this game goes over. Which of course means SD will win 2-1.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday
I enjoy talking baseball with you, but I have no clue what you are doing, or how or why you are making your bets. There must be some method to your madness that you feel these bets are of good value and/or +EV. (at least I hope)
I on the other hand am just trying to hit long-term above 50%. My +EV comes from the bonus money, if I can avoid eating it all up playing the rollover. So this overs angle for the last month+ has allowed me to more than do that. I have actually made some money during that time. Much like I am looking forward to the first 2 weeks NFL season underdog angle, coming up in a couple month. Any angle that can keep me above 50%. above 55% even better. the last month almost 60%.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I'm not betting the over in St. Louis. I am betting the over in Detroit with some hesitance because Detroit hasn't been looking too good lately, and neither has St. Louis or San Diego and because it is -130.
I'm actually betting on two teams I actually think will represent the two teams in the World Series. I'm intending on betting more than I would be comfortable with thinking the option to cash out early will be high. I probably have about $8,000-$9000 bet I actually forget, but my portion bet on the Brewers I wouldn't cash out for less than $25,000. I have a good mix between the Brewers and Astros, I'm unsure of all the money bet, because I made many bets in the small hundreds to allow cashing some tickets out and not others. It just takes forever. If on July 12th, Brewers were +4000, let's say 8/31 they are +700, I have bet with a lot of value and with a large bet in total. The success or lack of success compared against NY, Toronto, LA will be major factors influencing this, and of course also, their own winning records which I feel will surpass expectations. The Astros are actually very good and are playing teams not as good by far throughout the rest of the season. The Brewers are playing some good teams but have already played LA with 2 sweeps, so their remaining schedule is still on the harder side, but I think the Brewers will win the 4-game series against Chicago like a boss. The Brewers are going to be daddys to the Cubs. After this the Cubs can trade all they want, the Brewers might be getting Suarez. If I'm wrong, I'm possibly totally wrong and the whole thing could look like a mistake, but I don't see them being actually mediocre and I'm currently oblivious to it. If I'm right and totally right, I'm looking between $100,000 and $200,000 when the World Series is done. I've made so many bets, I can't remember them all with the most active parlay being Brewers-Astros and Brewers others to small degrees.
Last edited by theywontpayontuesday; 07-23-2025 at 11:23 PM.
Also true I have been winning by betting on these teams
If they streak and if they win by a lot sometimes, I win on streaks and also cash parlays. Really in the parlays Im usually guessing on some other aspects, but at least I have profit boosts and better chances of filling at least some of the legs. I just can't believe the As will win tomorrow and I cannot believe Detroit will win tomorrow. I actually think these series will be quite revealing. Tarik will be pitching this weekend, will be interesting to see who the Blue Jays pin against him. As far as the Astros go, they should win all 4 against the As or else they should be embarrassed. Im partially scared Im wrong and 2 tremendous losses could be against the As. These are should win games, the As have been so terrible I cannot also imagine less than 3/4 for the Astros. They need all the easy wins under their belt they can get.
The Tigers have been swept by the Pirates which blows my mind, yeah Detroit isn't what people have been betting on.
I keep feeling like I'm betting on today and tomorrow and everyone I meet is betting on today and yesterday.
Funny Astros pitcher is Jason Alexander like George actor from Seinfeld, not that there's anything wrong with that. He actually has little experience in the major leagues and is 32, the Astros have recently activated him. This is a red flag possibly. It's an experiment the Astros want to see how he will do against a team which should be dominated. This speaks to the over, but the pitching could be better than expected. Over under I cannot make up my mind.
Ten seconds later, I bet over 8.5 +110. Under 8.5 -120 didnt seem attractive like I couldn't believe it.
Last edited by theywontpayontuesday; 07-24-2025 at 12:11 AM.
Originally Posted by smurgerburger
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
Brewers odds of winning NL pennant +800 now, was +900, was +1000, was +1200, was +1500, etc. All my bets on them were at higher odds so that's the EV. Im actually disappointed seeing them fall, I was going to spend a few hundred more last night but wanted to take my chance betting today's games first and buy up with profits.
Would you mind talking baseball?Originally Posted by MDawgOriginally Posted by smurgerburger
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