Talking about baseball

[kewlJ]

Wow. Horrible first hour. For me as far as runs. Seeing a bunch of 0-0 and 1-0 games.

Things picked up some after that first hour. My over bets went 6-7 (laid off SD, as they just don't score). I also played Dan Druffs 2 picks which went 1-1, but Colorado won @ +170, so that was a win of 3/4 of a unit, making my losses for the day minimal.

Still a fourth consecutive day of overs not doing much. I expected a lot more homeruns and games like Baltimore/Colorado and Phils/Yankees. Going to stick with betting overs. It feels like a big overs day is coming.

Detroit is really terrible right now. Skubel pitching Saturday, but they are so bad right now, I am considering taking a shot with Toronto @ +175

[Half Smoke]

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I don't follow the MLB closely - but this story caught my interest

Nick Kurtz of the Athletics had an amazing day yesterday - from the link:

"Then, on a nondescript Friday night in downtown Houston, Kurtz launched himself into baseball lore. He played one of the best games in Major League Baseball’s 150-year history, hitting four home runs and collecting six hits during a 15-3 shellacking of the Houston Astros at Daikin Park.

Kurtz is the 20th man to hit four home runs in a major-league game. None of the other 19 were younger than 25. Kurtz did it at 22 years and 135 days old during his 66th major-league game.

Kurtz is the first player in baseball history to finish a game with at least six hits, six runs and eight RBIs."


https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...e-four-homers/

[kewlJ]

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I don't follow the MLB closely - but this story caught my interest

Nick Kurtz of the Athletics had an amazing day yesterday - from the link:

"Then, on a nondescript Friday night in downtown Houston, Kurtz launched himself into baseball lore. He played one of the best games in Major League Baseball’s 150-year history, hitting four home runs and collecting six hits during a 15-3 shellacking of the Houston Astros at Daikin Park.

Kurtz is the 20th man to hit four home runs in a major-league game. None of the other 19 were younger than 25. Kurtz did it at 22 years and 135 days old during his 66th major-league game.

Kurtz is the first player in baseball history to finish a game with at least six hits, six runs and eight RBIs."


https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...e-four-homers/

Add a single and double to the 4 homeruns for a 6 for 6 night. On Thursday night Kurtz was 3 for 5 with 2 doubles. All told in his last 10 at bats, 9 for 10, 4 homeruns, 3 doubles, 9 rbi's. That is a good month for a lot of players.

The kid is a monster. 6'4', 240 lbs. He and the A's are fun to watch (especially if you are betting OVERS). If the A's can aquire some pitching, they might be REAL fun to watch by the time they move to Las Vegas.

[Half Smoke]

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I don't follow the MLB closely - but this story caught my interest

Nick Kurtz of the Athletics had an amazing day yesterday - from the link:

"Then, on a nondescript Friday night in downtown Houston, Kurtz launched himself into baseball lore. He played one of the best games in Major League Baseball’s 150-year history, hitting four home runs and collecting six hits during a 15-3 shellacking of the Houston Astros at Daikin Park.

Kurtz is the 20th man to hit four home runs in a major-league game. None of the other 19 were younger than 25. Kurtz did it at 22 years and 135 days old during his 66th major-league game.

Kurtz is the first player in baseball history to finish a game with at least six hits, six runs and eight RBIs."


https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/651...e-four-homers/

Add a single and double to the 4 homeruns for a 6 for 6 night. On Thursday night Kurtz was 3 for 5 with 2 doubles. All told in his last 10 at bats, 9 for 10, 4 homeruns, 3 doubles, 9 rbi's. That is a good month for a lot of players.

The kid is a monster. 6'4', 240 lbs. He and the A's are fun to watch (especially if you are betting OVERS). If the A's can aquire some pitching, they might be REAL fun to watch by the time they move to Las Vegas.

119 different players have had 6 hits in a game

Rennie Stennett, in 1975 is the only MLB player to have more than 6 hits in a game - he had 7

but only 16 different players have ever scored 6 runs in a game

no MLB player has ever scored more than 6 runs in a game

and no MLB player has ever had more than 4 homers in a game

[kewlJ]

Despite that I am on this "overs" kick, looking to bet overs in the hot weather, I only bet 10 of the 16 games over today. I took a pass on, Phils/yankees, Toronto/detroit, Tampa/Cinn, A's/houston, LAD/Boston and mets/SF. Various reasons why I wasn't crazy about the overs in those games.

So....this will probably be the day that overs go 14-2 and I miss out on half of them. That would be alright though.

[kewlJ]

And just think what happens should Judge go down for even a short time.

And that time may have come. Judge is out Today, getting an MRI on his elbow. If there is a problem that keeps him out a few week, that could spell big trouble for the Yankees, who have already fallen 5.5 games back in the division.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Despite that I am on this "overs" kick, looking to bet overs in the hot weather, I only bet 10 of the 16 games over today. I took a pass on, Phils/yankees, Toronto/detroit, Tampa/Cinn, A's/houston, LAD/Boston and mets/SF. Various reasons why I wasn't crazy about the overs in those games. I just looked up my numbers for the month, Im ahead $4,000, have $9,000 tied up in futures bets this month, so I've technically losing $5,000 this month. The 4 game MLB did me in, I couldn't wait for better options, gambled late and lost. I found out the Brewers are available for +2000 at kiosks and I've been betting bad odds compared to land based bets. Only some Brewers +700 pennant instead of +900 i could get. I also found out I will never get any kind of VIP from ESPN, need to deposit $10,000 per month. They wasted about 45 minutes last night about my bonus bet Im supposed to receive by betting on these Phillies pre-live and them losing and hitting 4 home runs.

So....this will probably be the day that overs go 14-2 and I miss out on half of them. That would be alright though.

I also didnt take the over with Detroit. To justify it, I made a parlay bet with both pitchers having decent strike out numbers and Detroit winning. I took the over in the Guardians KC game.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I spent about $300 so far betting Brewers World Series +2000 $50 tickets to pay $1050. I think I'm going to start buying some as $20 tickets at this price for slot attendant tips. They'll get those instead of cash. Now I dont like how the much recent past is doing for my enthusiasm as both winning and losing streaks are all part of the true team win percentage. The Blue Jays could be that impressive. 8 game winning streaks are for bad teams and 12 game streaks are for really good teams. I'd really hate for this to blow up in my face with the Brewers and the Astros falling apart. Both teams need to get some trade wins and I think one of two will. I think if they were trading to the bigger teams like Philadelphia, NYM, NYY, the trade would already be done. Im sure they Brewers and the Astros both have trade capital they want to bargain with. Ill still have a shot with the Angels if the new pitching draft pick comes up quickly like in 2 weeks or less or not at all. He throws 98 i think if not 100. While my traded as writes I remembered something about something about what someone can't do. I remembered something else. I keep forgetting what they are. It's definitely instant block out.

[kewlJ]

Overs went 7-8 today with one push. As I mentioned, I only wagered 10 of those game. I went 6-4. So I definitely threw out the right games that I didn't think would go over. Really, if I don't think a game is going to go over, by default that means I think it will be under and I should bet it that way. But I just can't bet many unders right now in the heat of summer with ball traveling. I would rather just lay off some games I don't like.

I also picked Toronto over Detroit @ +175, as I mentioned last night. And I played Dan Druff's pick of SD. Both won. So a pretty good day.

Druff made his pick so late, as he often does, that I couldn't get it in before the game started. I had to live bet it, so got slightly worse odds and was limited in the amount I could bet, to about half what I normally bet. But again, a pretty good day and worked off a lot of rollover while making a profit.

Still waiting and think a BIG overs day is coming. Sundays and almost all day games conflicts with that as Sundays have been mostly under. But I am going to keep firing. As long as I am winning, even a little bit and working through rollover, I am going to stick with this overs strategy, as long as it stays hot and the ball travels further. But they are making it harder now with higher totals on some games. I see 3 different games on Sunday with Totals of 10 or more. And none of them are in colorado, Sacramento or wrigley with wind blowing out. Those are the usual places for 10+ over/unders. So they ARE getting bumped up.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Im embarrassed the Brewers and the Astros faltered to the Marlins, but that is statistical. Cannot be swept by the Marlins but if so must take ground against the Cubs from my lips to God's ears. I dont think either are dogs all through, I think my bets odds will be very certain. It's a weird scene right now things have kept the leaders all struggle. Im not sure which team is worse, Detroit, Houston, Milwaukee, NY. The NL East is looking pretty good right now. So every milestone at this point in the season will be truly impressive starting with 70 wins because 60 wins has been like an invisible invincible wall for teams. It will take this month to separate the better teams. During August the Astros should be getting a lot of people back making the team better on paper.

[kewlJ]

Im embarrassed the Brewers and the Astros faltered to the Marlins, but that is statistical. Cannot be swept by the Marlins but if so must take ground against the Cubs from my lips to God's ears. I dont think either are dogs all through, I think my bets odds will be very certain. It's a weird scene right now things have kept the leaders all struggle. Im not sure which team is worse, Detroit, Houston, Milwaukee, NY. The NL East is looking pretty good right now. So every milestone at this point in the season will be truly impressive starting with 70 wins because 60 wins has been like an invisible invincible wall for teams. It will take this month to separate the better teams. During August the Astros should be getting a lot of people back making the team better on paper.

The Marlins aren't the horrible team they used to be. They are 50-53, so almost .500. They are 20-8 in their last 28 games and 6-2 since all-start break. So they are no longer the "patsy" they used to be. For that matter, White Sox and A's are playing better. Both are capable of beating anyone on any night. It is a mistake for teams to look at the schedule against some of these teams and think "easy win".

But it is truly amazing that some of the teams that are suppose to be the best teams are really struggling right now. Yankees are now 6.5 games back of Toronto. And they got the news today that Judge is going on the IR. Not sure how long. They think maybe it won't be for long and he can hit (DH), just not play the outfield and throw the ball. I guess you don't need your elbow to hit.

[theywontpayontuesday]

April 19 to May 1
The Toronto Blue Jays faced their worst struggles in 2025 during the first half of the season, particularly from April 19 to May 1, when they were struggling with a record of 4-12. This period marked a significant decline in performance, leading to concerns among fans about the team's ability to compete effectively.
BlueJaysNation
+2

The Blue Jays have come together, it's up to them if they want to be passed up, and that was a long time ago. I still haven't bought straight Blue Jays bets, because the odds have been coming down on me and I hadn't expected them to stay this good. I have plenty of coverage for the Blue Jays winning the pennant along Milwaukee, but both are long shots. Obvioulsy I'm feeling some anxiety I may have completely lost over $10,000 or near it if some bets are cashable at profit. I suppose it is a little bit of anxiety I'm feeling seeing them losing because I wonder when any of these teams but the Blue Jays will stop losing.

I was kind of thinking the Marlins were a better team but it wouldn't do the Astros any good. Perhaps betting against my teams should be an option. Duh huh.