Talking about baseball

[theywontpayontuesday]

Overview


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Here's an overview of which teams gained and lost the most WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in the 2025 MLB trade season:
Teams gaining the most WAR (Winners)
San Diego Padres: The Padres made a significant impact, acquiring players like Mason Miller and JP Sears, and dramatically bolstering their bullpen with the likes of Mason Miller, Robert Suarez, Adrian Morejon, Jason Adam, and Jeremiah Estrada. They also added depth to their offense with Ramón Laureano and Ryan O'Hearn, and improved their catching with Freddy Fermin.
New York Yankees: The Yankees focused on improving several areas of their roster, notably their bullpen and bench. They acquired relievers David Bednar, Jake Bird, and Camilo Doval, along with third baseman Ryan McMahon and outfielder Austin Slater.
Seattle Mariners: Seeking their first World Series title, the Mariners were aggressive, landing hitters Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor without sacrificing their top prospects.
Teams losing the most WAR (Losers)
Minnesota Twins: The Twins had a difficult deadline, trading away key players like Carlos Correa (returning to Houston), Jhoan Duran, Chris Paddack, Randy Dobnak, and Willi Castro. This led to a significant decrease in their team's WAR and left many fans questioning the direction of the club.
San Francisco Giants: After a strong start to the season, the Giants experienced a major slide in July and became aggressive sellers at the deadline. While they acquired prospects, including Wilfri De La Cruz, Boston Bateman, and Cobb Hightower, for players like Tyler Rogers and Mike Yastrzemski, their immediate WAR suffered.
Baltimore Orioles: Although the Orioles' front office received some praise for their efficient handling of expiring contracts and rebuilding efforts, Yahoo Sports notes that "it's hard to get excited about anything related to the 2025 Baltimore Orioles, a typhoon of disappointment". They traded away players like Andrew Kittredge and Ramón Urías, prioritizing future returns over immediate success.
Important note: While these teams stand out in terms of WAR gained or lost, it's crucial to remember that WAR isn't the only metric for success. Some teams focused on acquiring prospects for future seasons rather than making an immediate push for the playoffs, according to FanGraphs. The overall impact of the trades will be better understood as the season progresses and in the long term.
MLB trade deadline grades for all 30 teams: 5 A’s, 15 B’s, 7 C’s and ...
Aug 1, 2025 — Key takeaways: The Padres put themselves in a strong position to not only catch the Dodgers in the NL West — they're only three games back — but also to again b...

The New York Times

[theywontpayontuesday]

The common saying about the Brewers is they will regression after their winning streak of 11 games. This would be true and usually is, if a team outperforms their record. The exception is an 11 game winning streak is actually to be expected for a team .650-.700. An expected winning streak for a .600 team would be around 8 games. They were 25-28 May 29th, then went on to win 35-15 which includes the 11 game winning streak. So are they a .600 team or are they closer to a .650-.700 team, we cannot know, only guess. We can never know, people just know recent history and the number of games good teams win. The problem is very good teams can lose 6-7 games in a row. Watching them hit, run, steal bases, and score, it just doesnt look like a bad team or average team. If they can keep it up, money will follow. The thing holding back other money on them is they are on the 2nd page for world series bets at kiosks, and you have to press 2 buttons to find them. Once another team is looking like they're not that good, the Brewers will be 1st page and attract more money.

The cashout values are what Im hoping for, but they will not be very pronounced until after a round in the playoffs. My +4000 $50 bet on the Brewers to have the best record in baseball, the cash out is $174 with the Brewers being +600 to get it. Im not sure if the same

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Brewers are winning against the Nationals 16-4 after 7 2/3 innings. I think the Brewers could be closer to .650 by the end of season. All that to lose in the first round they play, perhaps. It has been so rare for them to lose 3 of any 5 games. Being 35-15 since May 29th, you can see why and why you have to go back to April and May to see mediocrity.

[kewlJ]

Craziest night in baseball I have EVER seen BY FAR!

Scores of 17-16, 16-9, 13-12. These are football scores a month early!

Yankees blew a 5 run lead to lose 13-12 to Miami in bottom of the ninth. All 3 new Yankee relievers picked up yesterday sucked contributing, two giving up homeruns, the 3rd blowing the save in the 9th.

As crazy as the Yankee game was, the Colorado Rockies with the worst record in baseball by far, topped that. The Rockies rallied from down 9 to walk off a 17-16 win in the ninth. I had two bets on that game, one on the over 10 (as I almost always have overs these days) and a second much smaller bet on the Rockies. When the Pirates scored 9 in the first inning to take a 9-0 lead, I figured I was in good shape with the over bet, but had lost the Rockies bet. Not to be. I kept checking back in on the game as Colorado kept creeping closer. It was the most insanely exciting game I have ever watched. Kudos to the Colorado fans, who all stuck it out until the end and were rewarded. And they had a good crowd too.

The Phillies game paled in excitement but was very exciting to me as a Phillies fan. Phils erased a late 3-0 deficit and won 4-3. Their newly acquired closer Duran, recording a save on day 1 with the Phils. A 4 pitch save!

What a night in MLB.

[kewlJ]

minor correction. The Phillies score was 5-4 after rallying from down 3-0 late in the game.

[theywontpayontuesday]

That's a terrific comeback for the Rockies. I wouldn't have believed it at first. The Brewers 16-9 score set oft records they have scored 16 runs in 4 road parks not done since the 1939 Yankees. I hadnt noticed Philly had come back either, a needed win over another great team.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Yeah the Brewers's schedule isn't very easy in August. The Mets, the Reds, the Cubs for 5, the Blue Jays end of month. .500 through there in August, would make any team happy.

[kewlJ]

Yeah the Brewers's schedule isn't very easy in August. The Mets, the Reds, the Cubs for 5, the Blue Jays end of month. .500 through there in August, would make any team happy.

That 5 game series in two weeks between Cubs and Brewers could go a long way towards deciding things early. Assuming they are still tight, within a game or so, a sweep by either team would make it almost impossible to recover from. And even one team winning 4 or 5 especially if they have a game lead going in, would almost do the same.

I am glad a jumped on the Brewers bandwagon with a +150 bet to win the division when i did. In part that was you talking them up as to what a complete team they are. For a long time and even when I made that bet, I figured the Cubs would win the division. I no longer really do. I don't think the Cubs are as complete a team as Milwaukee. I think the cubs hitting in the first half of the season (for a while they were averaging over 6 runs a game), covered up some pitching deficiencies. They aren't hitting like that now. Crow-Armstrong who came out of nowhere with his first half has cooled off. It is not that he is in a slump. he has just come back to earth.

[theywontpayontuesday]

The Padres are 3 games back of the Dodgers on NL West, and they traded well and have a similarly easy schedule as the Dodgers.

[kewlJ]

There are some odds to win division that are interesting. I see value in some of these.

The Cubs are still favored over the Brewers @ cubs -140, Brewers +110. I guess people are thinking the Cubs are the cubs of the first 3 months that scored 6 runs a game and blew everyone out. I don't think they are returning to that level.

In the AL east, Toronto with a 3 game lead is -150. Yankees 3 games back are +170 and the Redsox 3.5 games back, only a half game behind the Yankees are +650. That is quite a jump for there being only half game between Yankees and Redsox. I guess people are just not believing in RedSox. I thinks someone on the broadcast said they have the best record or second best record in baseball since they traded Devers. I see value in the Redsox. I bet them at these same odds +650 two weeks ago.

[kewlJ]

The Padres are 3 games back of the Dodgers on NL West, and they traded well and have a similarly easy schedule as the Dodgers.

I don't know what to make of SD. They don't hit or hit just barely enough to win. On paper they look like they should be a much better hitting team than they are. If they start hitting watch out, because their pitching, has been very good.

I suspect no matter what, they won't catch the Dodgers. No matter how bad the Dodgers look, even during a recent 6 game losing streak, you just get the feeling somehow they will do enough to win the division.

[theywontpayontuesday]

Yeah the Brewers's schedule isn't very easy in August. The Mets, the Reds, the Cubs for 5, the Blue Jays end of month. .500 through there in August, would make any team happy.

That 5 game series in two weeks between Cubs and Brewers could go a long way towards deciding things early. Assuming they are still tight, within a game or so, a sweep by either team would make it almost impossible to recover from. And even one team winning 4 or 5 especially if they have a game lead going in, would almost do the same.

I am glad a jumped on the Brewers bandwagon with a +150 bet to win the division when i did. In part that was you talking them up as to what a complete team they are. For a long time and even when I made that bet, I figured the Cubs would win the division. I no longer really do. I don't think the Cubs are as complete a team as Milwaukee. I think the cubs hitting in the first half of the season (for a while they were averaging over 6 runs a game), covered up some pitching deficiencies. They aren't hitting like that now. Crow-Armstrong who came out of nowhere with his first half has cooled off. It is not that he is in a slump. he has just come back to earth.

Im very excited about the Brewers. Indeed possibly too excited, nothing should matter for a week. They are very impressive when you watch them. I respect all the speed. I have bet so much on them recently, should have bet 2 or 3 times more, but it was not meant to be. It makes no sense to see +1500, when they are the best team in baseball, treating their odds like a possible wild card contender. I do fear the Cubs, you just never know what will happen then. The Cubs should be favorites at home for the 5 game series.

[kewlJ]

One problem I see with the Cubs that hasn't been talked about much, is they never really replaced Justin Steele when he went down for the year early on. Some say Rea replaced Steele, but he didn't really because he was already in the rotation. he just moved up from starter # 4 to #2. So the drop off is who is starter # 4 and 5 now. It happened so early in the year, they should have traded for another decent starter. Or at least picked on up at the deadline.

I think they failed to do that because for the first 3 months, scoring 6+ runs a game covered up some of that. Not scoring 6 runs every game, you can now start to see that drop off, not with Rea...he has been fine, but the #4 and #5 guys where Rea used to be.

[kewlJ]

Here is a little...not tip or recommendation, but just a piece of info, some betting baseball might find interesting. I visit the Covers.com site daily to check weather conditions at each ballpark. A couple other things I check out on the site as well. But before you get into any of those subsections, as soon as you log on you are greeted with 3-4 picks for the day. Mostly baseball games, but an occasion Wnba or Canadian football pick, which I ignore because I don't bet either.

So their baseball picks have been running very hot for the past 3 weeks or so. Well over 60%, maybe as high as 65%-67%. I don't know who makes those picks or how, but they have been on fire. Todays picks are Tampa Bay +120 (already under way). Milwaukee -1.5 runs, Cubs -1.5. Which will probably jinx this good run.

[kewlJ]

I mentioned this the other day when Miami didn't sell off many pieces as some expected they would. And after watching them play yesterday, there isn't a doubt in my mind that THEY think they are still in the WC hunt. They are 7 games out of the last WC spot and even worse would need to jump about 4 teams.

I don't think they are in the hunt, but they really do believe it. Might be fun to watch them prove me wrong.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I did like the Cubs losing. First inning for the Brewers was just batting practice.

[theywontpayontuesday]

I did like the Cubs losing. First inning for the Brewers was just batting practice.

Oh yes and the Dodgers lost too. Im starting to believe a little in the Red Sox too. Toronto seems like they were on a streak and they're struggling now. Their run differential is under 20 now, was over or near 100 at some point.

[theywontpayontuesday]

As expected, the Astros odds of winning the World Series have fallen to +1200. No wonder since they are having such trouble scoring. Hasn't been +1200 since early July.

[kewlJ]

What a disaster and frankly freaking embarrassment to MLB this Bristol motor speedway game is/was.

I have 4 wagers on various overs for the game, 5 innings, and each teams totals. All 4 wagers stipulate that Strider must start for Atlanta and after the initial rain delay, he did not start, so all 4 of those wagers should be void, although they have yet to be.

In addition, I have 2 prop bets type wagers that do not stipulate who must start. One of those is a run scored in the first inning. The Reds scored a run in the first inning which should be a winner, but I have doubts it will be or that I will get paid.

Rain delays and suspension happen in baseball, but this game should have NEVER been started after the initial 2 hour delay. There was no way they were going to get much if any play in. And now everything is up in the air, waiting for sports books to make a decision.

[MDawg]

kewlJ, the problem is here that you can't cast yourself as a serious poster if you are going to tell major lies to back up other stories. Even if the original stories are true, once you resort to lying in order to convince doubters that these things really happened, you've killed your own credibility.

You want your claims and stories to be taken at face value. Once you're caught fibbing, it's hard to achieve that.

I will admit that I am very puzzled regarding what is the actual truth with you.

a lot of what you write could be total fiction. You're definitely someone who isn't adverse to lying on forums if it suits you to do so.