Dan Druff's 2025-26 NFL picks

[Dan Druff]

NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh

The fading of Aaron Rodgers begins.

[redietz]

NY Jets +130 vs Pittsburgh

The fading of Aaron Rodgers begins.

This will be my first and last NFL commentary.

The selection is fascinating. I say that because Rodgers has a +37 ATS record lifetime. His tenure with the Jets was a disaster, and the interpretation was that Rodgers was over the hill. Or fragile. Or both.

However, I will go out on a limb and say this -- there is very little wrong with his arm.

Normally, I would be all in versus a +37 ATS guy deemed over the hill. I would cite value. But after the last two years with the Jets, I think the perception of Rodgers has taken a hit beyond the reality, so I suspect the Steelers knew what they were doing. In other words, the value may lie ON him, not VERSUS him.

And as I said, I saw nothing really wrong with his arm; it's still live. This isn't Peyton Manning, willing and thinking his way to a SB title after his arm was gone. I will go out on a limb and say Rodgers' arm is distinctly better than Brady's the last two Brady years, and Brady was still dangerous as hell with a decent enough arm and still-perfect placement.

It's one thing to bet against a pop culture hero; value is there, built in. It's another to bet against a pop culture anti-hero supported by a minority, which Rodgers' covid stance made him. The value, in other words, may not be there.

So I would be very careful laying a course this season through a bunch of Aaron Rodgers icebergs. The Steelers have become a mystery team with he and Metcalf on the field together. They play in a division with the Ravens and Bengals, so not much chance of backdooring into the playoffs. They'd have to earn it and get semi-great QB play to do so. That also means Rodgers could be a divisional dog more often than not, which will be interesting.

[Dan Druff]

Baltimore -1 -110 at Buffalo
Atlanta -105 vs Tampa

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Circa Survivor picks (just FYI):
Arizona (3 tickets)
Jacksonville (2 tickets)
Denver (1 ticket)

[redietz]

Baltimore -1 -110 at Buffalo
Atlanta -105 vs Tampa

----

Circa Survivor picks (just FYI):
Arizona (3 tickets)
Jacksonville (2 tickets)
Denver (1 ticket)

I used Denver in LMS. This week, I used the Rams. Not sure I like the idea of following the Titans around like a puppy dog, but I don't really have a better theory.

Steelers, in retrospect, have serious limitations. No third-down receiving RB/slotback, really. No dominant tight end when you really need two decent ones. WR corps is fine; rest of the receiving options are C minus at best.

Rodgers has his work cut out for him. If they get themselves a third-down scatback, they solve a lot of woes.

[Dan Druff]

New England +123 at Miami
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo (+5.5 -110 ok)
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110

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Survivor

Tickets 1-3: Dallas (last week Arizona)
Ticket 4: Baltimore (last week Jax)
Ticket 5: Arizona (last week Jax)
Ticket 6: Arizona (last week Denver)

[Dan Druff]

New England +123 at Miami - WIN +1.23
Atlanta +150 at Minnesota - WIN +1.50
NY Jets +6 -115 vs Buffalo (+5.5 -110 ok) - LOSS -1.00
Cleveland at Baltimore - Over 45 -110 - WIN +0.91

----

Much better result this week -- 3-1 and up 2.64 units.

This still leaves me slightly down in this early season: 3-4, -0.36 units

Remember, each game is always 1 unit bet.

[Dan Druff]

Oh, and all of the Survivor tickets won, but boy... that Dallas game... one of the most insane games I've seen in my life.

If you watched it, especially the 4th quarter and OT, you'll know what I'm talking about.

Lucky to escape with a W there.


Arizona also almost blew a 27-3 3rd quarter lead at home versus a horrible Carolina team. Shameful.

But it all ended up ok.

[redietz]

Oh, and all of the Survivor tickets won, but boy... that Dallas game... one of the most insane games I've seen in my life.

If you watched it, especially the 4th quarter and OT, you'll know what I'm talking about.

Lucky to escape with a W there.


Arizona also almost blew a 27-3 3rd quarter lead at home versus a horrible Carolina team. Shameful.

But it all ended up ok.

I thought of you during the Dallas game. Holy mother -- that'll knock a decade off your life, and I don't have a decade to give.

I used the Rams for my Survivor plays. Was not happy at halftime. They were much the better but were blowing the game. The yardage must have wound up 400-200 or something like that. I tried to save the Ravens for a rainy day.

I think I came out ahead marginally for the week. It's within $100 either way. Will do the formal tally tomorrow. The only NFL I had was Patriots as back half of a teaser at +9, so that worked out, but it was ridiculous. Nobody stopped nobody, and there were special teams TDs galore. Sick stuff.

[Half Smoke]

but boy... that Dallas game... one of the most insane games I've seen in my life.

Brandon Aubrey's 64 yard field goal was the longest in history to send a game into overtime

it was an amazing kick - it went way over the bar - it actually hit the stands - I think the kick was powerful enough to have easily cleared at 75 yards - if the goalposts were another 11 yards back

"The longest field goal "this season" was a 70-yard kick by Cam Little of the Jacksonville Jaguars in the 2025 NFL preseason against the Pittsburgh Steelers on August 9, 2025. While this kick is recognized as the longest in NFL history, it does not count as an official regular-season record because it occurred during the preseason. The longest successful regular season field goal in NFL history remains Justin Tucker's 66-yarder from 2021. "





.

[kewlJ]

While I am sure the NFL was thrilled with this game, as this is the kind of game they desire, it clearly showed just how troubled the Dallas Cowboys are. They barely beat a bad Giants team in overtime at home, with Russel Wilson who has done absolutely nothing for 3 years had the best game of his career.

Terrible, terrible sign going forward for the Cowboys and Jerry World.

[redietz]

Well, I did the tallies and came out +$7 for the week -- enough for a Starbucks coffee (not latte) at the Golden Nugget. Had a conservative week, really fucked up actually, big-time, by passing on an impossible-to-win wager that won. Just terrible.

Pretty funny; about 12K in wagers (very conservative week) and plus seven dollars. Now, if I were an "AP," I'd count the $30 in cashback from the Heritage site on my winning ledger, but I don't do that stuff.

But good enough to say, "I won Week One. I won Week Two. I won Week Three. And I won Week Four." LOL. If you knew what I passed on, it would make you sick. It would make The Riddler sick. I should be shot, really. When I decided to pass on the wager in question, I asked myself, "Why are you trying to do the impossible? Who do you think you are -- John Wick?"

And on we go.

[Dan Druff]

DOG DAY

Las Vegas +130 at Washington
LA Rams +170 at Philadelphia
New England +108 vs Pittsburgh
Detroit +195 at Baltimore (Monday)


BONUS FAVORITE PICK

Indianapolis -4.5 -110 at Tennessee

[redietz]

After early results, sitting in 35th out of a couple thousand in the Race to the Super Bowl. Used Buffalo in my LMS. Not terribly creative, but I didn't want a road team this week in the LMS.

I played nothing in the NFL this week. Was supposed to plug in a teaser with Cowboys/Bears Under, but the hell with it. The Dallas defense looked pitiful last week, so I passed.

[redietz]

After early results, sitting in 35th out of a couple thousand in the Race to the Super Bowl. Used Buffalo in my LMS. Not terribly creative, but I didn't want a road team this week in the LMS.

I played nothing in the NFL this week. Was supposed to plug in a teaser with Cowboys/Bears Under, but the hell with it. The Dallas defense looked pitiful last week, so I passed.

Tied for 29th in the Race to the Super Bowl. Used the Ravens (no spread) and the Over tonight. I hate taking Overs, but I took them for all four featured totals this week. Lost with the Over last night or I would be in the top ten. I hated taking the Over, but my two-minute drill evaluations pushed me into an Over play last night. Very stupid.

[Dan Druff]

Results Week 3:

Las Vegas +130 at Washington - LOSS -1.00
LA Rams +170 at Philadelphia - LOSS -1.00
New England +108 vs Pittsburgh - LOSS -1.00
Detroit +195 at Baltimore - WIN +1.95
Indianapolis -4.5 -110 at Tennessee - WIN +0.91

Week 3: 2-3, -0.14 units

Total: 5-7, -0.50 units


Brutal, brutal loss with the Rams, as I'm sure a lot of you saw. Up 26-7, gave up the lead in the final 2 minutes, down 27-26, had an easy FG to kick for the win, and got blocked. Spread +3.5 bettors really got screwed as it was returned for a TD!


So I'm slightly down so far, but I'm feeling good about my NFL picks because only 3 of them were clear losses (Jets in week 2, Raiders in Week 3, and New England in Week 3).

I had 3 super close losses to go 0-3 in week 1, and all three looked like they were going to be almost sure winners at one point. That Rams loss on Sunday was a complete screw job. I could be 9-3 and up a ton of units because of how many moneyline dogs I've picked. At the same time, none of my wins were lucky, and I've won 3 (almost 4) decent sized dogs already, and none of those 3 ended up close.

I'm not one to sugar coat things. If I'm scuffling (as I have been for awhile in MLB), I admit it. Here in NFL, the picks have been good, the results have been mediocre.

We move on...

[Dan Druff]

What is very disappointing is Survivor.

I had all 6 tickets coming into week 3. I talked myself out of Seattle and talked myself down from Tampa. Originally it was going to be Seattle 3, Tampa 2, Atlanta 1. It ended up Atlanta 3, Green Bay 2, Tampa 1.

So I have 1 ticket left, after that disasterous Green Bay loss, which just like the Rams, happened because of a last-second blocked kick, and a late collapse of a clear lead.

As I said to my friend today (we both bet Detroit) when the Ravens were trying to come back down 38-24 in the final 2 minutes: "If I somehow lose this one, I'm quitting NFL forever."

[redietz]

What is very disappointing is Survivor.

I had all 6 tickets coming into week 3. I talked myself out of Seattle and talked myself down from Tampa. Originally it was going to be Seattle 3, Tampa 2, Atlanta 1. It ended up Atlanta 3, Green Bay 2, Tampa 1.

So I have 1 ticket left, after that disasterous Green Bay loss, which just like the Rams, happened because of a last-second blocked kick, and a late collapse of a clear lead.

As I said to my friend today (we both bet Detroit) when the Ravens were trying to come back down 38-24 in the final 2 minutes: "If I somehow lose this one, I'm quitting NFL forever."

I haven't seen a game like Rams/Eagles since about 30 years ago, Denver had a game-winning FG blocked and run back for a TD on the final play. I did not have that game, but my best partner/client at the time, Bob Hurst (president Golden Eagle Distributing), had it for decent money and was left with his head spinning.

Now I need an LMS this week. I used up Buffalo last week, so that is not an option. I guess it's Houston or Detroit.

[Dan Druff]

Played live poker all night, but here are some last minute picks on NFL today.

BTW I have Texans on Survivor.

Atlanta -3 +100 vs Washington (I'm annoyed I didn't get 2.5 because I meant to post/bet this 2 days ago)
New England -5.5 -107 vs Carolina

I only have 1 Survivor ticket left after losing 5 last week, so I need Texans to win.

[redietz]

Played live poker all night, but here are some last minute picks on NFL today.

BTW I have Texans on Survivor.

Atlanta -3 +100 vs Washington (I'm annoyed I didn't get 2.5 because I meant to post/bet this 2 days ago)
New England -5.5 -107 vs Carolina

I only have 1 Survivor ticket left after losing 5 last week, so I need Texans to win.

I debated and used the Lions. Texans were my second choice.


Listening to the Aaron Rodgers post-game interview. This guy actually makes the Steelers dangerous. They still need a speed back and/or a speed slotback and/or a speed tight end. They look like dinosaurs on offense, especially with that monster tight end who looks like he should be a WWE guy. By dinosaurs I mean big and muscular and physically imposing but not elusive or flat-out fast. With the Ravens struggling mightily on defense and Burrow hurt, the Steelers might have a legit playoff shot. When they get a banged-up offensive line across from them, their defense really smells blood.

[Dan Druff]

Surprised how Rodgers has been okay so far. I thought this season would be a complete fail, given his age and his clear regression in prior years.

Of course, it was easy to play with confidence when the team was facing Carson Wentz.

Glad to see the Texans win my last Survivor ticket without drama, and both of my spread bets winning. This puts me in the black in NFL this season -- finally.

I went 2-0, +1.93 units. so now I'm 7-7, +1.43 units overall.

As I mentioned before, with all the late-and-close losses, I've actually picked a lot better than that, so I feel like I've got a good shot at finishing this season a winner.