Professional Sportsbetting

[redietz]

The biggest reason I don't think redietz ever did well at sports betting is that he mocks the concept of EV.

If you don't use EV, then how do you know when to not bet?

Just bet your single best pick every week? Top 2? Do you just go off a hunch?

There are also reasons why Redietz seems to mock the idea of people being kicked off books or readily limited. Maybe it is because he is betting all over the place and his action is never seen as that sharp?

Which would be fine if that was part of your strategy and not just an unintentional side effect of place a decent amount of bets expected to lose.

All his records are for these contests where EV is not particularly relevant. You gotta make your best pick each week even if it isn't +EV. Then from that you start to see yourself as a real sports bettor because you're competing with mopes and not professional organizations.

#truth

I hate to reveal it again and again ..

I don't "mock" the concept of EV.

I mock people who substitute "EV" for "my personal opinion is" or "my personal opinion of what the EV might be."

I think EV estimations are essential for all random probability exercises and calculations.

I think "EV" estimates (outside of bonus analyses, middles shooting, and arbitrage analyses) in sports betting are an overly grandiose exercise in self-love and Leonardo Da APing. People make the classic fundamental error of justifying wagering on non-random events by importing random probability concepts and treating them as if they were/are applicable.

There is really no justification for labeling ballpark personal estimates with the "EV" tag. Just say, "I think this" or "I think that." The edges in sports betting are small enough that importing these personal opinions and labeling them as some kind of actual math are either excuses to gamble or excuses to boost one's alleged expertise. Labeling personal opinions of non-random events as "EV" makes people feel better about what they're doing.

I have spelled this out a dozen times on this forum, but these Fred Flintstone gamble-holics keep saying I don't "believe in 'EV'" or something. It's all a pushback because I am telling them that, outside of arbritrage, middles-shooting, and bonus exploitation, you have no way of even ballparking "EV" for sporting events.