Stock Market is way, way overvalued

[Half Smoke]

.
Alan Greenspan , former Chairman of the Federal Reserved called it right years ago when he called a huge upswing of that era "irrational exuberance"

those with discretionary cash, probably lots of newbies, are pouring money into it

I'm benefitting along with everybody else, but I'm not fooled by this

the S&P 500 lost 38.49% in 2008 and about 20% in 2022 and 23.4% in 2002

some investors are going to be in for a shock -

especially those that bought some individual stocks that are likely to tank much more than the broader market

but no telling when this will happen - it may be pretty far off - but it's coming - definitely

from the link:

"Based on September's S&P 500 monthly data, the market is OVERVALUED somewhere in the range of 117% to 193%, depending on the indicator."








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https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...ill-overvalued

[accountinquestion]

There is so little faith in USD via trump no one wants to park their money in cash. Gold has shot up, btc. This is not an economy anyone has encountered in their lifetime.

In fairness it isn't just trump. Many people set the ground work. He has just been accelerating it.

[smurgerburger]

It's concerning but to be fair I have felt that way for... I'm not sure, more than the last five years maybe, and the S&P 500 has almost doubled in that time.

The other factor to consider is that to me the valuations don't seem to be driven by retail investors or the sell side (meaning investment banks floating dubious IPOs, if I have the jargon correct).

This seems to be more driven by private and corporate investment in various aspects of the AI sector, while my impression at least is that the public tends to be rather negative about AI.

If the major tech companies and I guess private investors are betting too big on AI, does that really qualify as irrational exuberance? I don't know.

But regardless at some point of valuation it doesn't matter how valuable the technology proves, it will still be overvalued.

[DGenBen]

It's concerning but to be fair I have felt that way for... I'm not sure, more than the last five years maybe, and the S&P 500 has almost doubled in that time.

The other factor to consider is that to me the valuations don't seem to be driven by retail investors or the sell side (meaning investment banks floating dubious IPOs, if I have the jargon correct).

This seems to be more driven by private and corporate investment in various aspects of the AI sector, while my impression at least is that the public tends to be rather negative about AI.

If the major tech companies and I guess private investors are betting too big on AI, does that really qualify as irrational exuberance? I don't know.

But regardless at some point of valuation it doesn't matter how valuable the technology proves, it will still be overvalued.

Agreed.

Anytime in the past I have tried to time the market I always get burned.

For the last decade or so I just make sure my money is in solid stocks or funds and set it & forget it.

Not sexy, but I’ve had a very nice return.

[Half Smoke]

Agreed.

Anytime in the past I have tried to time the market I always get burned.

For the last decade or so I just make sure my money is in solid stocks or funds and set it & forget it.

Not sexy, but I’ve had a very nice return.

I basically agree with this and have done about the same - with the exception that I generally don't buy individuals stocks - I did make an exception and bought some of Nvidia

if there is a 30% drop in a given year - after 2 more years the indexes might be 20% higher than right before the drop

the inherent risk is the reason why the long term gains always exceed those of more conservative investment vehicles

the risk in the market throughout its history has only been shown to be short term risk - not long term risk

individual stocks however are a totally different ballgame than the S&P index and many mutual funds

there is no guarantee or really any strong likelihood that if they tumble badly that they will ever come back

.

[Keystone]

Good thread and some interesting points

What`s the over/under when MDickbrain will appear here with his SN BS and let everyone know how he kills the stock market?

He(?) wins at everything....just ask him lolololololololol

[Garnabby]

Not sexy, but I’ve had a very nice return.

Like everything else, it works until it doesn't. So, I prefer to spend well as a need arises, from savings. Fuck the unnecessary "games". Ha.

[kewlJ]

What`s the over/under when MDickbrain will appear here with his SN BS and let everyone know how he kills the stock market?

He(?) wins at everything....just ask him lolololololololol

I really don't want to hijack Half Smokes thread here, but Dawg's stock market thread at WoV is exactly like his gambling "adventure" thread, in that he tells you of the winners (stock picks and gambling days) with narry a mention of the more frequent losing days and picks.

[Rob.Singer]

Nobody cares about you and your obsession. And if anybody here hasn't been making money off of the market, gold, and silver over the last 5 years, you don't know your own daddy.

[Ray Finkle]

What`s the over/under when MDickbrain will appear here with his SN BS and let everyone know how he kills the stock market?

He(?) wins at everything....just ask him lolololololololol

I really don't want to hijack Half Smokes thread here, but Dawg's stock market thread at WoV is exactly like his gambling "adventure" thread, in that he tells you of the winners (stock picks and gambling days) with narry a mention of the more frequent losing days and picks.

If you really didn't want to hijack this thread,
Youda just kept your mouth shut....

[mickeycrimm]

Good thread and some interesting points

What`s the over/under when MDickbrain will appear here with his SN BS and let everyone know how he kills the stock market?

He(?) wins at everything....just ask him lolololololololol

Gold. Was buying when it was 1.4k to 1.8K an ounce.

[DGenBen]

Agreed.

Anytime in the past I have tried to time the market I always get burned.

For the last decade or so I just make sure my money is in solid stocks or funds and set it & forget it.

Not sexy, but I’ve had a very nice return.

I basically agree with this and have done about the same - with the exception that I generally don't buy individuals stocks - I did make an exception and bought some of Nvidia

if there is a 30% drop in a given year - after 2 more years the indexes might be 20% higher than right before the drop

the inherent risk is the reason why the long term gains always exceed those of more conservative investment vehicles

the risk in the market throughout its history has only been shown to be short term risk - not long term risk

individual stocks however are a totally different ballgame than the S&P index and many mutual funds

there is no guarantee or really any strong likelihood that if they tumble badly that they will ever come back

.

Good point.

I actually stopped buying individual stocks too years ago for the reasons you mentioned, keeping a few, and just invest in index funds for new money.

[DGenBen]

Good thread and some interesting points

What`s the over/under when MDickbrain will appear here with his SN BS and let everyone know how he kills the stock market?

He(?) wins at everything....just ask him lolololololololol

Gold. Was buying when it was 1.4k to 1.8K an ounce.

I like silver too. I’ve been buying that for a long time when it dips below $20, although gold has definitely out performed silver.

[accountinquestion]

Good thread and some interesting points

What`s the over/under when MDickbrain will appear here with his SN BS and let everyone know how he kills the stock market?

He(?) wins at everything....just ask him lolololololololol

Gold. Was buying when it was 1.4k to 1.8K an ounce.

I like silver too. I’ve been buying that for a long time when it dips below $20, although gold has definitely out performed silver.

I regret buying so much Silver to some degree. I mean it was better than cash but the premium on cashing it out is just too high.

All the poor people think "Silver is the next Gold" forever. You can google up reasons.

The fact is Silver is too bulky to store much wealth. It just can't store value like Gold. Vast capital doesn't want to fuck with Silver.

I bought both but and was like 2:1 silver to gold. Bought a gold oz every now and then back had a gold bug friend and he'd sell to me at spot and I had poker cash sitting around. Together they're worth some but none of it is a fortune.

My gold bug friend has been weirdly obsessed with gold all his adult life. Think - inventing contraptions to mine gold off the bottom of a river. (not saying he had luck) But recently he showed me this picture of what looked like a bag of oregano. He said it was all panned gold and about 4 ozs. He'd sold all his coins but with the current price he might be able to sustain himself. Dude just travels around living out of his small RV.

I fucked up crypto currencies by selling so much BTC for random shit. Such an idiot. I still have a handful of BTC and a considerable amount of ETH. And some other misc crypto coins. Between these 2 things I've done ok not having much in the market. I kept thinking it'd crash. I actually had cash when it dropped due to tariffs but Vanguard sold hteir IRA stuff and I didn't really expect it to fly back up so I didn't figure out how to execute trades. If I have access to the crypto (Like i can navigate finding my wallet keys and all that) Then I'm pretty set for a guy like me.

I did some work with Axel. I had my BTC wallet's units in mBTC. I was confused and thought I only had .08 BTC when I had .8. So I transferred an extra 0 to the sports book. It was like 22k instead of 2200. ha ha ha. I didn't realize it until I got a notification of some sort. Luckily they were established enough they gave it back. They also set my min bet at 3k in football games.

[MisterV]

Market down over 700 today...hmm...

[kewlJ]

How are you doing MrV. Are you on the mend from your bike accident several weeks ago?

[MisterV]

How are you doing MrV. Are you on the mend from your bike accident several weeks ago?

Saw the surgeon yesterday: healing seems pretty good, referred to physical therapy.

"This too shall pass..."

[kewlJ]

Good to hear. Wishing you well.

Just curious, do you have any pause about getting back on the bike? Especially in places where you share the road with crazy ass drivers?

[MisterV]

Good to hear. Wishing you well.

Just curious, do you have any pause about getting back on the bike? Especially in places where you share the road with crazy ass drivers?

Too early to say, I guess I won't know unless / until I try, and that day is over a month away.

I do have a sense of anxiety when I think about the accident and getting back on the bike...I've been thinking about seeing a therapist but will hold off for now and see how it goes, i.e. will I develop some form of PTSD or will I recover completely?

time will tell

[Garnabby]

That's karma, the guy with the imaginary broken arm asking the guy with the real broken arm, who believes in the imaginary broken arm, how it's going. Ha.