Dan Druff's 2025-26 NBA picks

[Dan Druff]

New Orleans at Dallas - Under 226 -110
Portland +151 vs Oklahoma City

The Thunder's reign of terror ends tonight. Back-to-back on the road, and Portland has a top-7 defense somehow.

[Dan Druff]

Won both of the above, though Portland required a big comeback.

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I only have one today, and it's starting soon.

Atlanta -2.5 -110 vs Toronto

[Dan Druff]

Lost Atlanta despite an 11-point lead in the mid-3rd.

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Okay, at the risk of starting a major slump, here are a few totals for you. Two start at 5:10pm PT.

Cleveland vs Chicago - Under 239.5 -115 (239 -110 ok)
New Orelans at San Antonio - Under 223.5 -110
Indiana at Denver - Over 237 -110

Bonus side pick:
Indiana +10.5 -105 at Denver

[Dan Druff]

I posted it so it's going to count on my record, but the line just dropped abruptly from 237 to 235.5 on the Indiana game, so that scares me and I'm not betting it myself.

FYI

[Dan Druff]

Okay I see now what happened.

https://www.si.com/nba/pacers/onsi/n...r-nuggets-game

Andrew Nembhard was announced as a surprise return tonight.

That shifted the line. I still like the new +9.5 but I'm backing away from the O/U 235.5

[Dan Druff]

0-4 above. Ouch. I didn't like the whole Nembhard news, threw off that entire game. Other two were just bad picks.

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A look at the Sacramento Kings shows they don't play defense.

Points allowed last 6 games: 126, 133, 130, 116, 132, 144

But will the Kings get blown out? That's what happened on November 7, where they barely failed to over the over despite giving up 132.

The Nuggets are -8 and on the road. When they last met 8 days ago, it was 130-124. I don't love high overs, but I think this one will hit.

Sacramento vs Denver - Over 243.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Lost above

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Chicago -2.5 at Detroit

Giddey OUT, Duren/Cunningham/Stewart/Thompson OUT

Starting at 4:10 PT

[Dan Druff]

Dallas vs Phoenix - Under 228.5

Davis/Lively OUT

[Dan Druff]

Back at NBA after a little break


Milwaukee at Cleveland - Under 235 -110
New York at Miami - Over 244.5 -110
Toronto -8.5 -105 vs Charlotte

[Dan Druff]

Went 1-2 above, only winning Cleveland under.

Today:

Utah at Lakers - Over 239.5 -110

[Dan Druff]

Won the above easily.

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I am going to take a break from overing the Jazz, because it seems the public is firing over on them, and yet the books have moved the line down.

Instead we will do these two overs:

Chicago vs Miami - Over 249.5 -110
Cleveland vs Indiana - Over 241.5 -115

I've never done an over on 249.5 or higher, aside from the All Star Game. New territory for me. But the Bulls and Heat haven't been playing defense, so get them together, and this can go really high. Also it figures to be a fairly close game, raising the chances of both OT and late fouling.

[Dan Druff]

Lost Cleveland, barely won Miami in last 40 seconds

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Today:

Memphis +1 -110 at Dallas

[Dan Druff]

Close game but Memphis won by 6 at the end

[Dan Druff]

Utah again

Lakers vs Utah - Over 244.5 -105

[Dan Druff]

Lost above.

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Today:

San Antonio +1 -112 at Portland