KJ BJ expert?

[MisterV]

MDawg, it's pretty clear from the kewlJ(s) latest responses to my thread that there is and has been more than one idiot posting as kewlJ. Interacting with that handle is a complete waste of time. Todd allowing that handle to flood this forum is a shame. It is clearly multiple people. Now we are probably just months away from AI largely taking over most posting...

*ahem* .. clears throat, belts out:

"Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep"

[kewlJ]

And then they completely forget about you week after week after week.

I have covered this many times. It isn't like I am playing some singular local casino, where I will see the same dealers and pit every week. That is the primary reason I moved to Vegas. Many many games, many casinos.

Both when I played the local circuit and with what I do now, I spread it around. For example, last weekend I only played 1 night, because it just wasn't going to be a great weekend for what I do. I knew it wouldn't be crowded enough with the right kind of crowd. Saturday night turned out better than I anticipated because the NBA basketball tournament was in town that I had forgotten about, and that sort of is the right kind of crowd.

But anyway, I played 6 sessions last Saturday at 4 casinos. Even though none were really all that eventful, I will not play any of those casinos this coming weekend.

Now lets say I do play a certain casino 2 even 3 times during a month. I might see same pit or dealer two of those times. Big deal. About 40% of my sessions end in a loss, so they aren't drawing much attention. And of the remaining most end up with a relatively minor win which equates to a max bet or so. (or less) Only a few will be the kind of win that anyone would even notice. So why yeah, some dealer or pit person may say yeah I have seen that guy before, it isn't standing out like you seem to think.

And remember I am seeking tables with players betting at limits equal to or greater than my MAX bet. My Max bet is only out about 5% of the time, so most of the time I am still way below, what others at the table are betting.



I will give you an example because I think examples explain it better. $100 min table. My first bet is $200. This is what I call my base bet. I may drop to $100 is the count goes negative. So here I am betting $200, at a $100 min table when EVERYONE is betting at least $100. some players betting $200, $300, $500 and a few betting larger. Those few are the ones providing cover. So even when I jump my bet the first level to say $300 or $400, I am still right there in the mix of most betters and well below the bigger bettors.

So what exactly do you think there is that makes me stand out at a $100 table full of $100-and larger bettors on a Saturday night?

And the next Saturday night I will be at a different strip casinos doing the same. There are many strip casinos you know. I could probably space it out to where I don't hit the same casino more than once every two months, but I don't need to do that.

I probably blend in more now than when I played the locals circuit with a $400 max bet.

[smurgerburger]

How many hours do you get in per year again?

(And remember you have given us enough info to estimate your average session length, your top bet, and your annual income, so put some thought into this.)

[kewlJ]

While my play is a little bit different now, it really isn't. It is about short sessions. Those short sessions take a little bit longer in time (minutes) but are really the same length in rounds played.

And short sessions, which I am still playing, eliminates most of the problem areas of card counting. It will result in both smaller wins and losses (which draw less attention), and when the count does rise, you don't show all that much information compared to playing longer sessions where the player sits there for a couple hours (10 hours right Mdawg, playing double deck ) showing his spread over and over.

Short sessions is a card counters best friend. Unfortunately for some counters if you live somewhere that the nearest casino is an hour away, the short sessions strategy becomes problematic. But in vegas, any card counter NOT playing short sessions is missing the boat.

[smurgerburger]

I just skimmed but I don't think I saw a number in there?

[kewlJ]

How many hours do you get in per year again?

(And remember you have given us enough info to estimate your average session length, your top bet, and your annual income, so put some thought into this.)

Then you figure it out. What do you need me to answer for coach belly2?

I don't play anywhere near the hours I used to 1 or 2 nights a week for 5-7 hours usually and if Friday isn't crowded enough or the right kind of crowed, it might be shorter. or I might skip Friday altogether. That isn't all table time though.

I actually wish I could put in more hours, but if you are playing crowded times, there are only so many crowded type hours.

BUT on the bright side, it leaves me plenty of time for VCT.

[smurgerburger]

How many hours do you get in per year again?

(And remember you have given us enough info to estimate your average session length, your top bet, and your annual income, so put some thought into this.)

Then you figure it out. What do you need me to answer for coach belly2?

I don't play anywhere near the hours I used to 1 or 2 nights a week for 5-7 hours usually. That isn't all table time though. I actually wish I could put in more hours, but if you are playing crowded times, there are only so many crowded type hours.

BUT on the bright side, it leaves me plenty of time for VCT.

Interesting that after all of that detail you are suddenly reticent about the one detail you are actually asked about.

[redietz]

Yeah, MrV conveniently ignores that kewlJ's brother has posted as KewlJ, admittedly according to Kewlj, and KewlJ has posted as "Kim Lee" -- but jog my memory -- was Kewlj-as-Kim-Lee admitted or just the conclusion of an analyzer?

Now kewlJ has to consult his notes regarding session lengths and top bets. He should tattoo this stuff somewhere.

Meanwhile, let me remind everyone that KewlJ's reported bonus whoring at Oddsmaker.ag, where I have had an account forever and bet maybe half a million, is something they would not tolerate more than twice. Once they correlate betting patterns, no aliases are going to hold up. Unless he was betting a sawbuck a game, which seems likely.

[kewlJ]

Interesting that after all of that detail you are suddenly reticent about the one detail you are actually asked about.

WTF dude?

Saturday night I went out about 8:30 pm and got home a little after 4am, maybe 4:30 but I stopped for breakfast. So maybe 7 hours devoted to BL play which includes traveling between sessions. Other weekend I might play 6 hours two nights. probably average close to 10 hours a week. My EV is over $200/per 100 rounds played. That is how you figure EV, per round or per 100/rds for easy record keeping, NOT by the hour. Playing this way an hour is less than 100 rounds. Probably 75-80 on average.

There I just gave you all the numbers. so you do the math. And it will come out to somewhere between 60-80k a year in EV at roughly 10 hours a week.

Anything else CB2?

[kewlJ]

Yeah, MrV conveniently ignores that kewlJ's brother has posted as KewlJ, admittedly according to Kewlj, and KewlJ has posted as "Kim Lee" -- but jog my memory -- was Kewlj-as-Kim-Lee admitted or just the conclusion of an analyzer?

KewlJ posting as Kim Lee was a troll conspiracy theory by YOU and others that was disproven by Dan Druff. Are you calling Druff a liar?

Fucktard, YOU spoke to Kim Lee on the Phone didn't you? he lives on the East coast where he works. I live in Las Vegas, verified by Dan Druff.

Have you lost your fucking mind?

I am begging you dude, wear a freaking hat this winter. You are losing brain cells. Happens at your age, but no need to hasten it.

[smurgerburger]

Estimating EV by rounds rather than hours sounds like something someone who doesn't actually play would do.

[kewlJ]

Estimating EV by rounds rather than hours sounds like something someone who doesn't actually play would do.

Not sure what kind of Ap you are, but you don't play blackjack do you?

We get a number for our EV by running simulations based on the rules and no decks of the game we are playing. That answer comes out as $xxx /per 100 rounds.

depending on if you can get 100 rounds and hour or less or more, then your EV will be adjusted to that lessor or greater amount. Unfortunately playing crowded conditions, it is less. Less rounds per hour but a higher average bet and ultimately higher EV. That is the trade off I have made the last 4 years.

How can I get you to stop this silliness. Do you want me to do a rough version of the math? Lets say I get 75 rounds per hours average. maybe that is a tad high. I know I said 75-80 a few minutes ago, but lets say 70 rounds an hour to allow for walking between games.

@ $200 per 100 rounds, 70 rounds would be $140 an hour ($2 per round) (<-THAT is actually the way I do EV). So $140/hr x 10 hours a week. hold on...carry the 1,....$1400 EV per week. Times 50 weeks whoala... $70k EV. a year, which is about what I have hit the last few years from BJ. Last year was like 48k because we worked on a different out of town BJ machine play for about 9-10 weeks.

How does that work for you CB2?

Now these numbers are EV remember. expected value. My actual results can be +/- from there. Thats called variance. So happens last year and this have been pretty darn close. But I have had years that are as much as 50% over or under expectation.

Now do you want to go back and say, well wait those aren't numbers you previously used? That would be correct. Playing the local circuit, 5 days a week 6-7 hours a day the numbers were entirely different. And those numbers are different from when I first moved to Vegas and was killing it 6 days a week at 10-12 hours a day. Different styles, limits of play result in different hours played.

Come on what else ya got CB2? Must be something?

[smurgerburger]

Of course for the purpose of assessing a game itself you use rounds. We were discussing your annual workload.

[kewlJ]

We were discussing your annual workload.

We are?? I didn't know that was a topic for discussion. But ok.

I thought it was kind of common knowledge that I have only been playing blackjack 1-2 nights a week here in Vegas the past 4 years or so. More when on a trip. BUT I also have been doing something else, sports betting that I can do from home that fills some of the time.

Can I ask what YOU share about what you do, that would even make you think you have the right to question me like you are? I mean I don't mind because I do share some of what I do. It just seems kind of fucked up that some of you people that share nothing, think it is ok to grill me like I am on trial, very apparently looking for some sort of inconsistency or "gottch ya" moment.

[smurgerburger]

We were discussing your annual workload.

We are?? I didn't know that was a topic for discussion. But ok.

I thought it was kind of common knowledge that I have only been playing blackjack 1-2 nights a week here in Vegas the past 4 years or so. More when on a trip. BUT I also have been doing something else, sports betting that I can do from home that fills some of the time.

Can I ask what YOU share about what you do, that would even make you think you have the right to question me like you are? I mean I don't mind because I do share some of what I do. It just seems kind of fucked up that some of you people that share nothing, think it is ok to grill me like I am on trial, very apparently looking for some sort of inconsistency or "gottch ya" moment.

No. Or rather you can but I won't bother to answer you.

[accountinquestion]

And then they completely forget about you week after week after week.

I have covered this many times. It isn't like I am playing some singular local casino, where I will see the same dealers and pit every week. That is the primary reason I moved to Vegas. Many many games, many casinos.

Both when I played the local circuit and with what I do now, I spread it around. For example, last weekend I only played 1 night, because it just wasn't going to be a great weekend for what I do. I knew it wouldn't be crowded enough with the right kind of crowd. Saturday night turned out better than I anticipated because the NBA basketball tournament was in town that I had forgotten about, and that sort of is the right kind of crowd.

But anyway, I played 6 sessions last Saturday at 4 casinos. Even though none were really all that eventful, I will not play any of those casinos this coming weekend.

Now lets say I do play a certain casino 2 even 3 times during a month. I might see same pit or dealer two of those times. Big deal. About 40% of my sessions end in a loss, so they aren't drawing much attention. And of the remaining most end up with a relatively minor win which equates to a max bet or so. (or less) Only a few will be the kind of win that anyone would even notice. So why yeah, some dealer or pit person may say yeah I have seen that guy before, it isn't standing out like you seem to think.

And remember I am seeking tables with players betting at limits equal to or greater than my MAX bet. My Max bet is only out about 5% of the time, so most of the time I am still way below, what others at the table are betting.



I will give you an example because I think examples explain it better. $100 min table. My first bet is $200. This is what I call my base bet. I may drop to $100 is the count goes negative. So here I am betting $200, at a $100 min table when EVERYONE is betting at least $100. some players betting $200, $300, $500 and a few betting larger. Those few are the ones providing cover. So even when I jump my bet the first level to say $300 or $400, I am still right there in the mix of most betters and well below the bigger bettors.

So what exactly do you think there is that makes me stand out at a $100 table full of $100-and larger bettors on a Saturday night?

And the next Saturday night I will be at a different strip casinos doing the same. There are many strip casinos you know. I could probably space it out to where I don't hit the same casino more than once every two months, but I don't need to do that.

I probably blend in more now than when I played the locals circuit with a $400 max bet.

This example has a base bet of 200 or 100 when negative. Then you raise it to 300 or 400? I don't know much about spreads but I know about math but it is hard for me to make that out as working. Hmmm. A spread of 1 to 4?

[kewlJ]

This example has a base bet of 200 or 100 when negative. Then you raise it to 300 or 400? I don't know much about spreads but I know about math but it is hard for me to make that out as working. Hmmm. A spread of 1 to 4?

$300 or $400 is only my first jump mate. I have said elsewhere what my max bet currently is. It is much larger than that isn't it?

Now lets define bet spread. If a player's smallest bet is $100 and his max bet is $800, that is a 1-8 spread. Simple enough right.

Now if I sit down and my first bet is $200, but I drop to $100 during negative counts and jump to $300/$400 and eventually to $800, what is my spread? is it 1-4? ($200-$800), 1-8? ($100-$800)

Answer: it is 1-8, the smallest wager you make to the largest wager you make. That is what spread is. the $200 initial bet, instead of the very smallest $100 bet is what is known as spreading BOTH ways. there is a little bit of a cost to it as opposed from a strict 1-8 spread, but it makes it more difficult to see the entire spread. they have to see both a negative count and positive max bet count in the same shoe to see the full spread. This is a major factor in longevity. because if they only see half, it looks like a 1-4 spread and you wont even be backed off with that at a 6 deck game.

[coach belly]

There I just gave you all the numbers. so you do the math. And it will come out to somewhere between 60-80k a year in EV at roughly 10 hours a week.

My hourly is above $200.

10 hours per week x $200 per hour x 52 weeks per year = $104K per year

So you have been running from 23% - 43+% over your estimated EV.

How is that possible?

[kewlJ]

My hourly is above $200.

10 hours per week x $200 per hour x 52 weeks per year = $104K per year

So you have been running from 23% - 43+% over your estimated EV.

How is that possible?

Good for you coach belly. You got me. [slow clap]. I did indeed say hourly when you and everyone knew I mean per 100 rounds (/100) which is how blackjack EV is universally measured.

And when you do the calculations using /100 rds like you and everyone knows I meant to say it comes out exactly where I claim.

Gotta love the "gottch ya" moment...don't ya?

[kewlJ]

the reason blackjack results and EV are universally measured by 100 rounds (/100) as opposed to hourly rate, is because the fluctuation can be so great. You get a heads up game where you book 400 rounds in an hour and the average skyrockets. But using rounds, a round played is a round played whether it is part of a fast moving heads up game or a slow moving full table on a Saturday night. A round is a round and 100 rounds a 100 rounds.