Big Casino Wins and Jackpots

[arcimede$]

When I put $200 of free play in my girlfriend's hands she knew exactly what to do (and it was carried to a fault which is what's funny):

She played 5 coins in and with every winner she hit the cash out button. Thanks to a couple of quads, and her cash out total was a bit north of $600. (She won about $80 more at craps.) Would you have told her that she should have kept playing?

No, you are playing negative return games. I stop when the freeplay is exhausted. I've mentioned this before.

[arcimede$]

Yes it did. And by quitting when ahead the money came home with me.

Or, you didn't win as much as you could have ... you'll never know.

[Nash]

The Nash's went Vegas over the weekend and I got lucky at Planet Hollywood on Saturday and Sunday.

[Alan Mendelson]

Or, you didn't win as much as you could have ... you'll never know.

Here's what we know: I gave her $200 of free play and she went home with $681 cash.
I had $800 of free play and I went home with about $1200.

That money can buy a lot of math theory books.

[redietz]

Congrats, Nash. That is killer.

[arcimede$]

Here's what we know: I gave her $200 of free play and she went home with $681 cash.
I had $800 of free play and I went home with about $1200.

That money can buy a lot of math theory books.

But, it cannot change those theories which is what you seem to think you can do with your magic win/loss limits.

[Rob.Singer]

Or, you didn't win as much as you could have ... you'll never know.

That's an uneducated, dumb argument. Every AP knows at least 70% of their play sessions lose. So why go against the math you live by? Selective, hypocritical points expose debate weaknesses.

[Rob.Singer]

The Nash's went Vegas over the weekend and I got lucky at Planet Hollywood on Saturday and Sunday.

Nash I'll comment since arci doesn't know what to do with real wins. Two royals in one weekend is an infrequent event. Congratulations. I hope you came home with at least most of it. However, you DO know those were -EV games you were playing, so each hand you played cost you. Don't you just hate it when the math snatches real money right out of your hand like that?

[Alan Mendelson]

But, it cannot change those theories which is what you seem to think you can do with your magic win/loss limits.

Try to understand this: I can't use your theory to place bets or to buy things or to pay bills. You need real money to do that. It's very nice to understand theory but what counts is the money on the credit meter and in your pocket.

I will ask you one more time: where does it say it is wrong to hit the cash out button when you have a profit? And please... no more crap about video poker being one long session because Caesars bills for its rooms on a nightly basis, my rent is by the month, my prescriptions are filled in three month intervals and Viagra shouldn't work longer than four hours.

[Rob.Singer]

That made me smile--not because you lost for which I'm sorry--horrible beat. But there were two reasons I gave up sports betting:

1. Tired of the late night Hawaii games; and
2. The day the vice squad kicked my door down because they had busted my bookie and were running all his incoming phone numbers. They wanted me to testify against the bookie which I refused to do. Luckily, he died before his trial and I was off the hook. I would never have testified however, but I didn't want the bookie's employers to make sure that I wouldn't testify.

Ian't that why some sportsbettors moved to LV--they got tired of the late night Hawaii games?

[regnis]

By the way, regnis, I have to tell you. The Hawaii reference made me think you have my phone tapped. I lost a horrendous game in Hawaii last week. I had Oregon State -9 -- they were up 38-7 heading into the fourth. Well, a bunch of defensive substitutes, a blocked punt, a fumbled kickoff return, two roughing the passer calls, and a fourth and one bomb later, Oregon State wins 38-30. I stayed up until 2:45 AM watching that mess. Would have been worse, but they had an early start. Had a headache for two days. So I chuckled at the Hawaii reference -- that was a bad one.

That made me smile--not because you lost for which I'm sorry--horrible beat. But there were two reasons I gave up sports betting:

1. Tired of the late night Hawaii games; and
2. The day the vice squad kicked my door down because they had busted my bookie and were running all his incoming phone numbers. They wanted me to testify against the bookie which I refused to do. Luckily, he died before his trial and I was off the hook. I would never have testified however, but I didn't want the bookie's employers to make sure that I wouldn't testify.

[Rob.Singer]

Try to understand this: I can't use your theory to place bets or to buy things or to pay bills. You need real money to do that. It's very nice to understand theory but what counts is the money on the credit meter and in your pocket.

I will ask you one more time: where does it say it is wrong to hit the cash out button when you have a profit? And please... no more crap about video poker being one long session because Caesars bills for its rooms on a nightly basis, my rent is by the month, my prescriptions are filled in three month intervals and Viagra shouldn't work longer than four hours.

In theory....isn't it also just one really life-long session when he wipes his butt?

[arcimede$]

That's an uneducated, dumb argument. Every AP knows at least 70% of their play sessions lose. So why go against the math you live by? Selective, hypocritical points expose debate weaknesses.

Nope, it depends on the game. Some games provide wins over 40% of the time. You're so lost when it comes to understanding VP that it is hilarious. A nobody jumping up and down crying "look at me". Pathetic.

[arcimede$]

Try to understand this: I can't use your theory to place bets or to buy things or to pay bills. You need real money to do that. It's very nice to understand theory but what counts is the money on the credit meter and in your pocket.

Straw man.

I will ask you one more time: where does it say it is wrong to hit the cash out button when you have a profit? And please... no more crap about video poker being one long session because Caesars bills for its rooms on a nightly basis, my rent is by the month, my prescriptions are filled in three month intervals and Viagra shouldn't work longer than four hours.

More straw man nonsense. You can cash out and leave whenever you want to, Alan. No one cares. It just makes no difference to your long term expectation.

[Alan Mendelson]

Some games provide wins over 40% of the time.

Wow. Games do not "provide wins."

[Alan Mendelson]

You can cash out and leave whenever you want to, Alan. No one cares. It just makes no difference to your long term expectation.

Correct, Arc, it makes no difference to "long term expectation." It does, however, make a difference to reality.

You seem to be captured by "expectation." I, and I would suggest most people who play in casinos, are more concerned with reality.

[arcimede$]

Correct, Arc, it makes no difference to "long term expectation." It does, however, make a difference to reality.

You seem to be captured by "expectation." I, and I would suggest most people who play in casinos, are more concerned with reality.

Reality approaches expectation over time.

[Count Room]

Reality approaches expectation over time.

Isn't this why Rob has said he expects to win every time he plays?

[Alan Mendelson]

Reality approaches expectation over time.

Really, Arc? And while you say reality "approaches expectation over time" does it always get there?

Tell me, do you play video poker with real money?

[arcimede$]

Really, Arc? And while you say reality "approaches expectation over time" does it always get there?

Yes Alan, it really does get there within well known statistical bounds. It is very, very simple statistics. Your continued denial of mathematics is just plain silly.

The every day things you experience that only work because of statistics are innumerable. Simple gravity for example. Let me know when you fly off the floor and hit the ceiling.