An "Orphaned Progressive"

[mickeycrimm]

Mickey... others have investigated the meter myths. That's all they are -- myths. Your meter theory ranks right with Singer's fifth card flipovers. Sorry. Quote anyone who supports it

Sorry, Alan. That dog won't hunt. Name one world class machine pro who says they are meaningless.

[Alan Mendelson]

Sorry, the burden of proof is on you, mickey. You have to tell us. You are the one making a claim -- and you alone.

[mickeycrimm]

Dan: is mickey suggesting that his presumed actual return of a machine matches the theoretical return? Does he understand that the symbols that he tracks are actually virtual reels and not actual reels? Sorry. This has all been discussed and dismissed before. It is myth. It is useless information. Sorry. The meters will not help you win.

Sure, its a virtual reel but there are fixed odds on every symbol landing on the line. A typical reel has 22 physical stops so some might think that if there is only one main symbol on every reel then the odds would be 22 X 22 X 22. But that is not the case. By assigning duplicate stops in the RNG to the lesser symbols this lengthens the odds of making the top line hit. But there are definitely fixed odds of every symbol landing on the line.

[mickeycrimm]

Sorry, the burden of proof is on you, mickey. You have to tell us. You are the one making a claim -- and you alone.

Alan, you are a tricky Dude. You don't believe what you are saying. You're just trying to trick me into giving up the information. Okay, I'll explain to you one way I used the meters to exploit an IGT Vision Series game to get an edge not just in the game but an edge against other knowledgeable players who knew how to exploit the game. It was called Mystery Bonus. The game came in several configurations but I'll explain the one that was in the Ramada Laughlin. It was a $1 Ten TimesPay Mystery Bonus.

From reset, you would see the LED screen at the top of the machine flashing "WATCH FOR" in big green letters. At 450 coin in, confirmed by the coin in meter, the LED screen would start flashing "COMING SOON" in big red letters. From that point it could award a random bonus between 50 and 100 coins on any coin in from 1 to 200. The averege was 100.

I assigned an estimated payback value of the machine at 90%. So how much of the payback is line pays and how much is the bonus worth? Well, that's a no brainer. 450 coin in plus 100 coin in is 550. The average bonus is 50 plus 100 divided by 2 = 75.

75/550 means the bonus is worth 13.6% of the payback. So that would mean the line pays are worth 76.4%.

So what if I walk up on this machine and see it flashing "COMING SOON." Where would I be at then, at least up through collecting the bonus. I figure to put an average of 100 coin in or less to get the bonus. But we'll figure it at 100 coins.

100 coins at 76.4% = a cost of $23.60.
The average bonus is $75.
Average profit = $51.40

Is the math absolutely perfect? No, because I started with an arbitrary number, 90%, for the overall payback. And that's a lowball number for a $1 game. But its damn close enough.

Now, how did I get an edge on the competition? The other guys that knew how to play the game? The pros wouldn't play the game unless they found it flashing "COMING SOON." When I finished a play, or when I saw someone else finish a play, I would write down the coin in meter then go on about my business. If I came back by the machine later I could look at the meter and see how much coin in had been given. If it was in the low 400's I would spin the play off. Not as big an edge as finding the machine flashing "COMING SOON" but still a big enough edge.

And I did all this with those meters you say are meaningless.

[Alan Mendelson]

Is the math absolutely perfect? No, because I started with an arbitrary number, 90%, for the overall payback. And that's a lowball number for a $1 game. But its damn close enough.

Sorry, bad science.

[mickeycrimm]

Sorry, bad science.

See if you can get Dancer or Shackleford to say it's bad science. You know where they are. Ask them. I'm a 19 year machine pro, Alan. For years I explained to everyone on vpFREE how I exploit machines. If you put up how a play works on vpFREE and you are wrong about it you are going to get bombarded by world class pros calling you an idiot. I seen it time and time again when others would put up a play. Not one top notch pro has ever told me I was wrong. For years I have had open invitations to meet and greet Dancer, Scott, Shackleford, and many other world class pros. There is only one reason for that. They know I'm a high caliber pro.

I really don't care if you don't get it, Alan. The whole world thinks like you. Its the reason guys like me do so well at the game.

[mickeycrimm]

One more thing, Alan. Dancer has propositioned me more than one time to write my life story. And he would get it published. He thinks the whole world should know how a high school dropout, and homeless drifter, transformed into one of the top machine pros on the planet.

[Alan Mendelson]

Another Rob Singer.

[mickeycrimm]

Another Rob Singer.

Unsubscribe me. I don't need this bullshit.

[quahaug]

Alan, you're not making sense. Those techniques either work or they don't. If a guy claims He makes a living off it, well good for him. Unless He's lying of course. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt because the methods He describes make simple common sense are not difficult to understand and are easily put into practice if one wants to put in some effort, unlike Robs convoluted system that even if it works can seemingly only be executed by Rob Himself. There is no comparison between the two.

[Alan Mendelson]

The meters are meaningless. The numbers don't show the return. They don't show handpays. They can't predict wins. It's hocus pocus and mickey admits to fabricating numbers to create a formula.

This is a big stretch from using a video poker paytable to create a return for a game.

I SUGGEST EVERYONE GOOGLE THIS SUBJECT.

[mickeycrimm]

The meters are meaningless. The numbers don't show the return. They don't show handpays. They can't predict wins. It's hocus pocus and mickey admits to fabricating numbers to create a formula.

This is a big stretch from using a video poker paytable to create a return for a game.

I SUGGEST EVERYONE GOOGLE THIS SUBJECT.

I didn't fabricate a number. I estimated a number, 90%, which is standard practice among machine pros. On the Mystery Bonus play I described I was getting a 50% edge. Who cares if you are off a point or two in either direction when you are working such a big edge.

[Alan Mendelson]

I didn't fabricate a number. I estimated a number, 90%, which is standard practice among machine pros.

Is 1/47 an estimated number when you are drawing four to the royal?

Why 90% and not 92 percent?

[mickeycrimm]

The meters are meaningless.

Alan, you avoid answering questions when you don't know the answer. So I'll ask you again. If the meters are meaningles then why are they there?

[mickeycrimm]

I didn't fabricate a number. I estimated a number, 90%, which is standard practice among machine pros. On the Mystery Bonus play I described I was getting a 51% edge. 100 coin in with an average profit of $51. Who cares if you are off a point or two in either direction when you are working such a big edge.

Here is the answer to your question of why 90% and not 92%.

[Alan Mendelson]

I understand now: you have an edge because you won. Is that it?

[mickeycrimm]

Here is one of the more famous of the IGT Vision Series I used to work. It's called a Double Diamond Mine.

http://toplineslotmachines.com/?attachment_id=599

Take a look at the three columns of the LED screen up top. You will see that there are 4 diamonds collected in the right column, two diamonds collected in the middle column, and two diamonds collected in the right column. And you can see two diamonds on the reels, one in the upper left hand corner, and one in the lower right hand corner.

If you are betting one coin and a diamond lands on the line of reel 1, it will put one more diamond in that column. If you are betting two coins it will put two diamonds in the column. The other reels and columns work the same way. When you collect 10 diamonds in any column yet get a ten coin bonus, and the shaft will empty out.

When this game first came out in 97 I did an empirical on how often the diamonds land on the line. I found that with most machines the chances of a diamond landing on the line in the first column was 1 in 19, second column 1 in 13, third column 1 in 12.

So I did my usual, assigning an overall value of 90% to the game.

With the first column it took 190 coin in to get the 10 coin bonus. 10/190 = 5.26%.

With the second column it took 130 coin in to get the ten coin bonus. 10/130 = 7.7%.

With the third column it took 120 coin in to get the ten coin bonus. 10/120 = 8.33%.

These are averages. So the diamonds represented 21.3% of the payback.

90% minus 21.3% means the line pays are worth 68.7%.

There were lots of configurations I could play, but I'll do the easy one here. What if you walk up to this machine and see 9 diamonds built up in the right hand column? An average of 12 coin in is gonna get you a ten coin bonus. 10/12 = 83.33%.

68.7% plus 83.33% means you have a 152% play.

And who gives a rats ass if you are off a point or two in either direction when you are working such a big edge.

[mickeycrimm]

I understand now: you have an edge because you won. Is that it?

I'm not doing this anymore for your benefit, Alan. I'm doing it for the benefit of your subscribers.

[mickeycrimm]

There was a time when all a guy had to do was walk around the casinos, monitor the accumulator slots like I've described here and pick off the bonuses when they were ripe. It was worth about $300 a day to me in the late nineties. Games like Mystery Bonus, Wild Cherry Pie, Wild Cherry Bonus Pie, Diamond Thief, Double Diamond Mine, Triple Diamond Mine, Baseball, Money Factory, Jewel in the Crown, Five Card Instant Bingo, Riddle of the Sphinx, Buccaneer Gold, Lady of Fortune, Fort Knox, Safebuster, Shopping Spree, X-Factor, Piggy Bankin', etc. It was the life of Reilly. No downside risk. It was as easy as it got.

[quahaug]

I think Allen is saying that Micky is saying that according to the meter a person can predict when a machine is "due" to hit (because the disparity between coin in and out). That's not what He's saying. Allen, please tell us what you mean. I don't want to go down the same wormhole of win goals and loss limits.