OnceDear I would do the bet for nickels or for lunch. I just can't do it for "real money." Lunch would be a perfect for me.

If you want the die pulled from under the cup immediately and before the bet it sounds okay to me too -- but that's not what the Wizard agreed to. But practically it's the same thing. Because that means the bet is simply this: can you roll another 2 and be paid 9X for an event that is supposed to happen 1/6 times?

And that's all this bet is.

This "business" about rolling the dice in a cup first to see if at least one 2 shows up is only a trigger for that bet. Once there is that trigger of at least one two the question is simply is there a 2 on the other die?

Those who believe there is a 1/6 chance that there is a 2 on the other die will accept the bet with the 9X payoff. Those who believe that the chance of another 2 is 1/11 will happily offer the 9X payoff.

(Note I said 9X payoff because the Wizard said he didn't care if its 9-for-1 or 9-to-1. And I don't care either even though there is a difference.)

By the way, and you can post this: I can be in Vegas late this Friday night or Saturday for this. On Sunday morning I must be back in LA to bowl in a charity fundraiser. Yes, I bowl Arc. Not well, but I bowl. I even have my own ball, bag and shoes... not that this indicates any ability.