Arci, God knows you have been patient beyond my means when discussing mathematics here, so let me try this again. The context is not clear. Is this primarily a description of a single event or a hypothetical question regarding multiple events? The author of the question starts IN PRESENT TENSE with a description of a SINGLE EVENT. This conjures up a particular minds' eye picture for most people. The author of the question then tries to subvert/reverse/override that mind's eye picture with the insertion of the single word, "probability," at the end. For you, this turns it into a multiple event, math question. For many, if not most people, it does not.
The piece of writing is at odds with itself, and probably purposefully so. It starts off with a single event in present tense. The piece of writing establishes itself as being about that single event. The addition of the word "probability" after the fact doesn't - and shouldn't necessarily - make this about multiple events. The author undoubtedly did this on purpose. It's either a really bad piece of writing or a deliberately manipulative piece of writing designed to divide the readers into two at-odds groups. If you look at this as a piece of writing, which it is, rather than as a math problem, there is no reason for the use of the word "probability" to override the present tense description of a single event. If you look at this as a math problem, which it probably also is (but not absolutely necessarily due to "probability" having a non-math primary definition), then the use of the "probability" at the very end frames it as a multiple event problem.
So, the context is not crystal clear. The beginning of the question frames it as one thing. The use of "probability" at the end frames it as something else at odds (for many, if not most readers) with its own beginning. Arci chooses to have the end of the question, with "probability," frame the beginning. Many people choose to have the beginning of the question, with a single event, frame the end. To add to the layers of this, "probability" has its own multiple definitions, and the present-tense, single-event opening could be defined as hypothetical, even though there is no clear reason to do so.
This question is not a math equation. It is a piece of writing. It should foremost be analyzed as a piece of writing before being analyzed as a math equation.
Reply With Quote