Originally Posted by regnis View Post
I'm going to try to make this real easy AGAIN!!!

I roll one die. It is a 2.

What were the odds that it was going to be a 2----1 of 6.

What are the odds that it is a 2----100%.

It is all about understanding plain simple english.


This has been argued for months now and here it is in plain simple english. We (1-6ers)see the 2 and therefore only consider the odds on the remaining die. You (1-11ers)are viewing the probabilities of something that the plain english does not ask for.
Try to rationalize on the example with the 36 cards. It demonstrates in a very simple terms why the odds of 2-2 are to be considered only in conjunction with what the odds of 2-x were prior to the throw.

We draw a random card and disregard all non 2 cards. In fact we are drawing one card out of eleven cards (that's the number of the cards that matter to us).
We know the outcome. Its 2-x. What are our odds it is 2-2?